Bayesian time-varying quantile forecasting for Value-at-Risk in financial markets

Recently, Bayesian solutions to the quantile regression problem, via the likelihood of a Skewed-Laplace distribution, have been proposed. These approaches are extended and applied to a family of dynamic conditional autoregressive quantile models. Popular Value at Risk models, used for risk management in finance, are extended to this fully nonlinear family. An adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling scheme is adapted for estimation and inference. Simulation studies illustrate favourable performance, compared to the standard numerical optimization of the usual nonparametric quantile criterion function, in finite samples. An empirical study generating Value at Risk forecasts for ten major financial stock indices finds significant nonlinearity in dynamic quantiles and evidence favoring the proposed model family, for lower level quantiles, compared to a range of standard parametric volatility models, a semi-parametric smoothly mixing regression and some nonparametric risk measures, in the literature

IL-33 ameliorates Alzheimer’s disease-like pathology and cognitive decline

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a devastating condition with no known effective treatment. AD is characterized by memory loss as well as impaired locomotor ability, reasoning, and judgment. Emerging evidence suggests that the innate immune response plays a major role in the pathogenesis of AD. In AD, the accumulation of β-amyloid (Aβ) in the brain perturbs physiological functions of the brain, including synaptic and neuronal dysfunction, microglial activation, and neuronal loss. Serum levels of soluble ST2 (sST2), a decoy receptor for interleukin (IL)-33, increase in patients with mild cognitive impairment, suggesting that impaired IL-33/ST2 signaling may contribute to the pathogenesis of AD. Therefore, we investigated the potential therapeutic role of IL-33 in AD, using transgenic mouse models. Here we report that IL-33 administration reverses synaptic plasticity impairment and memory deficits in APP/PS1 mice. IL-33 administration reduces soluble Aβ levels and amyloid plaque deposition by promoting the recruitment and Aβ phagocytic activity of microglia; this is mediated by ST2/p38 signaling activation. Furthermore, IL-33 injection modulates the innate immune response by polarizing microglia/macrophages toward an antiinflammatory phenotype and reducing the expression of proinflammatory genes, including IL-1β, IL-6, and NLRP3, in the cortices of APP/PS1 mice. Collectively, our results demonstrate a potential therapeutic role for IL-33 in AD

A Quantitative Systems Approach Reveals Dynamic Control of tRNA Modifications during Cellular Stress

Decades of study have revealed more than 100 ribonucleoside structures incorporated as post-transcriptional modifications mainly in tRNA and rRNA, yet the larger functional dynamics of this conserved system are unclear. To this end, we developed a highly precise mass spectrometric method to quantify tRNA modifications in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Our approach revealed several novel biosynthetic pathways for RNA modifications and led to the discovery of signature changes in the spectrum of tRNA modifications in the damage response to mechanistically different toxicants. This is illustrated with the RNA modifications Cm, m[superscript 5]C, and m[superscript 2][subscript 2]G, which increase following hydrogen peroxide exposure but decrease or are unaffected by exposure to methylmethane sulfonate, arsenite, and hypochlorite. Cytotoxic hypersensitivity to hydrogen peroxide is conferred by loss of enzymes catalyzing the formation of Cm, m[superscript 5]C, and m[superscript 2][subscript 2]G, which demonstrates that tRNA modifications are critical features of the cellular stress response. The results of our study support a general model of dynamic control of tRNA modifications in cellular response pathways and add to the growing repertoire of mechanisms controlling translational responses in cells.National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (ES002109)National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (ES017010)National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (ES015037)National Cancer Institute (U.S.) (CA026731)National Center for Research Resources (U.S.) (RR023783)Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technolog

Gene network exploration of crosstalk between apoptosis and autophagy in chronic myelogenous leukemia

Copyright © 2015 Fengfeng Wang et al. Background. Gene expression levels change to adapt the stress, such as starvation, toxin, and radiation. The changes are signals transmitted through molecular interactions, eventually leading to two cellular fates, apoptosis and autophagy. Due to genetic variations, the signals may not be effectively transmitted to modulate apoptotic and autophagic responses. Such aberrant modulation may lead to carcinogenesis and drug resistance. The balance between apoptosis and autophagy becomes very crucial in coping with the stress. Though there have been evidences illustrating the apoptosis-autophagy interplay, the underlying mechanism and the participation of the regulators including transcription factors (TFs) and microRNAs (miRNAs) remain unclear. Results. Gene network is a graphical illustration for exploring the functional linkages and the potential coordinate regulations of genes. Microarray dataset for the study of chronic myeloid leukemia was obtained from Gene Expression Omnibus. The expression profiles of those genes related to apoptosis and autophagy, including MCL1, BCL2, ATG, beclin-1, BAX, BAK, E2F, cMYC, PI3K, AKT, BAD, and LC3, were extracted from the dataset to construct the gene networks. Conclusion. The network analysis of these genes explored the underlying mechanisms and the roles of TFs and miRNAs for the crosstalk between apoptosis and autophagy.Link_to_subscribed_fulltex

International Guideline on Dose Prioritization and Acceptance Criteria in Radiation Therapy Planning for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

Purpose: The treatment of nasopharyngeal carcinoma requires high radiation doses. The balance of the risks of local recurrence owing to inadequate tumor coverage versus the potential damage to the adjacent organs at risk (OARs) is of critical importance. With advancements in technology, high target conformality is possible. Nonetheless, to achieve the best possible dose distribution, optimal setting of dose targets and dose prioritization for tumor volumes and various OARs is fundamental. Radiation doses should always be guided by the As Low As Reasonably Practicable principle. There are marked variations in practice. This study aimed to develop a guideline to serve as a global practical reference. Methods and Materials: A literature search on dose tolerances and normal-tissue complications after treatment for nasopharyngeal carcinoma was conducted. In addition, published guidelines and protocols on dose prioritization and constraints were reviewed. A text document and preliminary set of variants was circulated to a panel of international experts with publications or extensive experience in the field. An anonymized voting process was conducted to rank the proposed variants. A summary of the initial voting and different opinions expressed by members were then recirculated to the whole panel for review and reconsideration. Based on the comments of the panel, a refined second proposal was recirculated to the same panel. The current guideline was based on majority voting after repeated iteration for final agreement. Results: Variation in opinion among international experts was repeatedly iterated to develop a guideline describing appropriate dose prioritization and constraints. The percentage of final agreement on the recommended parameters and alternative views is shown. The rationale for the recommendations and the limitations of current evidence are discussed. Conclusions: Through this comprehensive review of available evidence and interactive exchange of vast experience by international experts, a guideline was developed to provide a practical reference for setting dose prioritization and acceptance criteria for tumor volumes and OARs. The final decision on the treatment prescription should be based on the individual clinical situation and the patient's acceptance of optimal balance of risk. (C) 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

International Recommendations on Reirradiation by Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy for Locally Recurrent Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

Purpose: Reirradiation for locally recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is challenging because prior radiation dose delivered in the first course is often close to the tolerance limit of surrounding normal structures. A delicate balance between achieving local salvage and minimizing treatment toxicities is needed. However, high-level evidence is lacking because available reports are mostly retrospective studies on small series of patients. Pragmatic consensus guidelines, based on an extensive literature search and the pooling of opinions by leading specialists, will provide a useful reference to assist decision-making for these difficult decisions. Methods and Materials: A thorough review of available literature on recurrent NPC was conducted. A set of questions and preliminary draft guideline was circulated to a panel of international specialists with extensive experience in this field for voting on controversial areas and comments. A refined second proposal, based on a summary of the initial voting and different opinions expressed, was recirculated to the whole panel for review and reconsideration. The current guideline was based on majority voting after repeated iteration for final agreement. Results: The initial round of questions showed variations in clinical practice even among the specialists, reflecting the lack of high-quality supporting data and the difficulties in formulating clinical decisions. Through exchange of comments and iterative revisions, recommendations with high-to-moderate agreement were formulated on general treatment strategies and details of reirradiation (including patient selection, targets contouring, dose prescription, and constraints). Conclusion: This paper provides useful reference on radical salvage treatment strategies for recurrent NPC and optimization of reirradiation through review of published evidence and consensus building. However, the final decision by the attending clinician must include full consideration of an individual patient's condition, understanding of the delicate balance between risk and benefits, and acceptance of risk of complications. (C) 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

Risk of Recurrent Arterial Ischemic Stroke in Childhood: A Prospective International Study.

Background and purposePublished cohorts of children with arterial ischemic stroke (AIS) in the 1990s to early 2000s reported 5-year cumulative recurrence rates approaching 20%. Since then, utilization of antithrombotic agents for secondary stroke prevention in children has increased. We sought to determine rates and predictors of recurrent stroke in the current era.MethodsThe Vascular Effects of Infection in Pediatric Stroke (VIPS) study enrolled 355 children with AIS at 37 international centers from 2009 to 2014 and followed them prospectively for recurrent stroke. Index and recurrent strokes underwent central review and confirmation, as well as central classification of causes of stroke, including arteriopathies. Other predictors were measured via parental interview or chart review.ResultsOf the 355 children, 354 survived their acute index stroke, and 308 (87%) were treated with an antithrombotic medication. During a median follow-up of 2.0 years (interquartile range, 1.0-3.0), 40 children had a recurrent AIS, and none had a hemorrhagic stroke. The cumulative stroke recurrence rate was 6.8% (95% confidence interval, 4.6%-10%) at 1 month and 12% (8.5%-15%) at 1 year. The sole predictor of recurrence was the presence of an arteriopathy, which increased the risk of recurrence 5-fold when compared with an idiopathic AIS (hazard ratio, 5.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.8-14). The 1-year recurrence rate was 32% (95% confidence interval, 18%-51%) for moyamoya, 25% (12%-48%) for transient cerebral arteriopathy, and 19% (8.5%-40%) for arterial dissection.ConclusionsChildren with AIS, particularly those with arteriopathy, remain at high risk for recurrent AIS despite increased utilization of antithrombotic agents. Therapies directed at the arteriopathies themselves are needed

Fission Yeast Tel1ATM and Rad3ATR Promote Telomere Protection and Telomerase Recruitment

The checkpoint kinases ATM and ATR are redundantly required for maintenance of stable telomeres in diverse organisms, including budding and fission yeasts, Arabidopsis, Drosophila, and mammals. However, the molecular basis for telomere instability in cells lacking ATM and ATR has not yet been elucidated fully in organisms that utilize both the telomere protection complex shelterin and telomerase to maintain telomeres, such as fission yeast and humans. Here, we demonstrate by quantitative chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP) assays that simultaneous loss of Tel1ATM and Rad3ATR kinases leads to a defect in recruitment of telomerase to telomeres, reduced binding of the shelterin complex subunits Ccq1 and Tpz1, and increased binding of RPA and homologous recombination repair factors to telomeres. Moreover, we show that interaction between Tpz1-Ccq1 and telomerase, thought to be important for telomerase recruitment to telomeres, is disrupted in tel1Δ rad3Δ cells. Thus, Tel1ATM and Rad3ATR are redundantly required for both protection of telomeres against recombination and promotion of telomerase recruitment. Based on our current findings, we propose the existence of a regulatory loop between Tel1ATM/Rad3ATR kinases and Tpz1-Ccq1 to ensure proper protection and maintenance of telomeres in fission yeast

Re-Patterning Sleep Architecture in Drosophila through Gustatory Perception and Nutritional Quality

Organisms perceive changes in their dietary environment and enact a suite of behavioral and metabolic adaptations that can impact motivational behavior, disease resistance, and longevity. However, the precise nature and mechanism of these dietary responses is not known. We have uncovered a novel link between dietary factors and sleep behavior in Drosophila melanogaster. Dietary sugar rapidly altered sleep behavior by modulating the number of sleep episodes during both the light and dark phase of the circadian period, independent of an intact circadian rhythm and without affecting total sleep, latency to sleep, or waking activity. The effect of sugar on sleep episode number was consistent with a change in arousal threshold for waking. Dietary protein had no significant effect on sleep or wakefulness. Gustatory perception of sugar was necessary and sufficient to increase the number of sleep episodes, and this effect was blocked by activation of bitter-sensing neurons. Further addition of sugar to the diet blocked the effects of sweet gustatory perception through a gustatory-independent mechanism. However, gustatory perception was not required for diet-induced fat accumulation, indicating that sleep and energy storage are mechanistically separable. We propose a two-component model where gustatory and metabolic cues interact to regulate sleep architecture in response to the quantity of sugar available from dietary sources. Reduced arousal threshold in response to low dietary availability may have evolved to provide increased responsiveness to cues associated with alternative nutrient-dense feeding sites. These results provide evidence that gustatory perception can alter arousal thresholds for sleep behavior in response to dietary cues and provide a mechanism by which organisms tune their behavior and physiology to environmental cues