Permutation-based Pathway Testing using the Super Learner Algorithm

Many diseases and other important phenotypic outcomes are the result of a combination of factors. For example, expression levels of genes have been used as input to various statistical methods for predicting phenotypic outcomes. One particular popular variety is the so-called gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA). This paper discusses an augmentation to an existing strategy to estimate the significance of an associations between a disease outcome and a predetermined combination of biological factors, based on a specific data adaptive regression method (the Super Learner, van der Laan et al., 2007). The procedure uses an aggressive search procedure, potentially resulting in final models that imply associations that would not be discovered using non data-adaptive procedures (e.g., multiple linear regression). A test statistic derived from the fit of the Super Learner model to the original data is compared to the permutation distribution of the same statistic, the latter being generated by permuting the outcome labels with respect to the covariate vectors. This comparison is the basis for rejection criteria for the null hypothesis of no association between a set of biological factors (e.g., gene expression levels) and binary phenotypic outcomes. We include simulations that compare the statistical power of the test derived from the Super Learner method with that of other methods for two different data generating distributions

The Radio Afterglow and the Host Galaxy of the X-Ray Rich GRB 981226

We report the discovery of a radio transient VLA 232937.2-235553, coincident with the proposed X-ray afterglow for the gamma-ray burst GRB 981226. This GRB has the highest ratio of X-ray to gamma-ray fluence of all the GRBs detected by BeppoSAX so far and yet no corresponding optical transient was detected. The radio light curve of VLA 232937.2-235553 is qualitatively similar to that of several other radio afterglows. At the sub-arcsecond position provided by the radio detection, optical imaging reveals an extended R=24.9 mag object, which we identify as the host galaxy of GRB 981226. Afterglow models which invoke a jet-like geometry for the outflow or require an ambient medium with a radial density dependence, such as that produced by a wind from a massive star, are both consistent with the radio data. Furthermore, we show that the observed properties of the radio afterglow can explain the absence of an optical transient without the need for large extinction local to the GRB.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal Letters. Thirteen pages. Three Postscript figure

The FIRST Bright Quasar Survey. II. 60 Nights and 1200 Spectra Later

We have used the VLA FIRST survey and the APM catalog of the POSS-I plates as the basis for constructing a new radio-selected sample of optically bright quasars. This is the first radio-selected sample that is competitive in size with current optically selected quasar surveys. Using only two basic criteria, radio-optical positional coincidence and optical morphology, quasars and BL Lacs can be identified with 60% selection efficiency; the efficiency increases to 70% for objects fainter than magnitude 17. We show that a more sophisticated selection scheme can predict with better than 85% reliability which candidates will turn out to be quasars. This paper presents the second installment of the FIRST Bright Quasar Survey with a catalog of 636 quasars distributed over 2682 square degrees. The quasar sample is characterized and all spectra are displayed. The FBQS detects both radio-loud and radio-quiet quasars out to a redshift z>3. We find a large population of objects of intermediate radio-loudness; there is no evidence in our sample for a bimodal distribution of radio characteristics. The sample includes ~29 broad absorption line quasars, both high and low ionization, and a number of new objects with remarkable optical spectra.Comment: 41 pages plus 39 gifs which contain all quasar spectra. Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal Supplement Serie

A spectroscopic study of component C and the extended emission around I Zw 18

Long-slit Keck II, 4m Kitt Peak, and 4.5m MMT spectrophotometric data are used to investigate the stellar population and the evolutionary status of I Zw 18C, the faint C component of the nearby blue compact dwarf galaxy I Zw 18. Hydrogen H$\alpha$ and H$\beta$ emission lines are detected in the spectra of I Zw 18C, implying that ionizing massive stars are present. High signal-to-noise Keck II spectra of different regions in I Zw 18C reveal H$\gamma$, H$\delta$ and higher order hydrogen lines in absorption. Several techniques are used to constrain the age of the stellar population in I Zw 18C. Ages derived from two different methods, one based on the equivalent widths of the H$\alpha$, H$\beta$ emission lines and the other on H$\gamma$, H$\delta$ absorption lines are consistent with a 15 Myr instantaneous burst model. We find that a small extinction in the range $A_V$ = 0.20 -- 0.65 mag is needed to fit the observed spectral energy distribution of I Zw 18C with that model. In the case of constant star formation, all observed properties are consistent with stars forming continuously between ~ 10 Myr and < 100 Myr ago. We use all available observational constraints for I Zw 18C, including those obtained from Hubble Space Telescope color-magnitude diagrams, to argue that the distance to I Zw 18 should be as high as ~ 15 Mpc. The deep spectra also reveal extended ionized gas emission around I Zw 18. H$\alpha$ emission is detected as far as 30" from it. To a B surface brightness limit of ~ 27 mag arcsec$^{-2}$ we find no observational evidence for extended stellar emission in the outermost regions, at distances > 15" from I Zw 18.Comment: 38 pages, 11 Postscript figures, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journa

The Host Galaxy of GRB 990123

We present deep images of the field of gamma-ray burst (GRB) 990123 obtained in a broad-band UV/visible bandpass with the Hubble Space Telescope, and deep near-infrared images obtained with the Keck-I 10-m telescope. Both the HST and Keck images show that the optical transient (OT) is clearly offset by 0.6 arcsec from an extended object, presumably the host galaxy. This galaxy is the most likely source of the metallic-line absorption at z = 1.6004 seen in the spectrum of the OT. With magnitudes V_{C} ~ 24.6 +/- 0.2 and K = 21.65 +/- 0.30 mag this corresponds to an L ~ 0.7 L_* galaxy, assuming that it is located at z = 1.6. The estimated unobscured star formation rate is SFR ~ 6 M_sun/yr, which is not unusually high for normal galaxies at comparable redshifts. The strength of the observed metallic absorption lines is suggestive of a relatively high metallicity of the gas, and thus of a chemically evolved system which may be associated with a massive galaxy. It is also indicative of a high column density of the gas, typical of damped Ly-alpha systems at high redshifts. We conclude that this is the host galaxy of GRB 990123. No other obvious galaxies are detected within the same projected radius from the OT. There is thus no evidence for strong gravitational lensing magnification of this burst, and some alternative explanation for its remarkable energetics may be required. The observed offset of the OT from the center of its apparent host galaxy, 5.5 +/- 0.9 proper kpc (projected) in the galaxy's rest-frame, both refutes the possibility that GRBs are related to galactic nuclear activity and supports models of GRBs which involve the death and/or merger of massive stars. Further, the HST image suggests an intimate connection of GRB 990123 and a star-forming region.Comment: Updated references. 12 pages including 3 Postscript figures. Camera- ready reproductions of the figures can be found at http://astro.caltech.edu/~jsb/GRB/grb990123.htm

A contemporaneous infrared flash from a long gamma-ray burst: an echo from the central engine

The explosion that results in a cosmic gamma-ray burst (GRB) is thought to produce emission from two physical processes -- the activity of the central engine gives rise to the high-energy emission of the burst through internal shocking and the subsequent interaction of the flow with the external environment produces long-wavelength afterglow. While afterglow observations continue to refine our understanding of GRB progenitors and relativistic shocks, gamma-ray observations alone have not yielded a clear picture of the origin of the prompt emission nor details of the central engine. Only one concurrent visible-light transient has been found and was associated with emission from an external shock. Here we report the discovery of infrared (IR) emission contemporaneous with a GRB, beginning 7.2 minutes after the onset of GRB 041219a. Our robotic telescope acquired 21 images during the active phase of the burst, yielding the earliest multi-colour observations of any long-wavelength emission associated with a GRB. Analysis of an initial IR pulse suggests an origin consistent with internal shocks. This opens a new possibility to study the central engine of GRBs with ground-based observations at long wavelengths.Comment: Accepted to Nature on March 1, 2005. 9 pages, 4 figures, nature12.cls and nature1.cls files included. This paper is under press embargo until print publicatio

Conceptualizing Communication Capital for a Changing Environment

With rapidly evolving technologies, boundaries between traditional modes of communication have blurred, creating an environment that scholars still describe from viewpoints as researchers in interpersonal, organizational or mass communication. This manuscript looks at the social capital literature and argues for conceptualizing “communication capital” to help understand the impact of communication phenomena in a changing environment. The literature has treated interpersonal communication variables as components of social capital and mass communication variables as factors affecting social capital, but scholars long ago recognized their reinforcing nature, leading us to develop a concept of communication capital merging symbolic activity across domains in its potential for impacting civic engagement, defined as persistent communication patterns that facilitate social problem solving in the community. Analysis of survey data shows that 4 dimensions of communication capital explain variance in civic engagement beyond that accounted for by traditional measures of social capital, media use, neighborhood communication, and efficacy

Giving risk management culture a role in strategic planning

WOS: 000413939000023Strategically planned and implemented risk management paves the way for competitive advantage and a decisive edge for global financial institutions. The importance of risk management becomes more evident in financial instability periods. The failure of global financial institutions in the recent financial crisis revealed that firms with strong risk management and culture were more prepared and economically less damaged. As financial institutions have been criticized severely about risk management practices, it also becomes clear that most financial institutions have difficulties in developing a risk management culture. To have a clear understanding of risk management culture, the chapter aims to highlight a need to extend our understanding of risk management culture and how it can find a voice in the strategic planning of global financial institutions