Bargaining over power: when do shifts in power lead to war?

Students of international relations have long argued that large and rapid shifts in relative power can lead to war. But then why does the rising state not alleviate the concerns of the declining one by reducing its expected future power, so that a commitment problem never emerges? For example, states often limit their ability to launch preemptive attacks by creating demilitarized zones, or they abandon armament programs to avoid preventive wars. In a model of complete information, I show that shifts in power never lead to war when countries can negotiate over the determinants of their power. If war occurs, then, it must be that negotiations over power are impossible or too costly. I then show how third parties, domestic politics, and problems of fungibility can increase the costs of such negotiations, and hence lead to war, even under complete informatio

Hyperinsulinism-hyperammonaemia syndrome: novel mutations in the GLUD1 gene and genotype-phenotype correlations

Background: Activating mutations in the GLUD1 gene (which encodes for the intra-mitochondrial enzyme glutamate dehydrogenase, GDH) cause the hyperinsulinism–hyperammonaemia (HI/HA) syndrome. Patients present with HA and leucine-sensitive hypoglycaemia. GDH is regulated by another intra-mitochondrial enzyme sirtuin 4 (SIRT4). Sirt4 knockout mice demonstrate activation of GDH with increased amino acid-stimulated insulin secretion. Objectives: To study the genotype–phenotype correlations in patients with GLUD1 mutations. To report the phenotype and functional analysis of a novel mutation (P436L) in the GLUD1 gene associated with the absence of HA. Patients and methods: Twenty patients with HI from 16 families had mutational analysis of the GLUD1 gene in view of HA (n=19) or leucine sensitivity (n=1). Patients negative for a GLUD1 mutation had sequence analysis of the SIRT4 gene. Functional analysis of the novel P436L GLUD1 mutation was performed. Results: Heterozygous missense mutations were detected in 15 patients with HI/HA, 2 of which are novel (N410D and D451V). In addition, a patient with a normal serum ammonia concentration (21 µmol/l) was heterozygous for a novel missense mutation P436L. Functional analysis of this mutation confirms that it is associated with a loss of GTP inhibition. Seizure disorder was common (43%) in our cohort of patients with a GLUD1 mutation. No mutations in the SIRT4 gene were identified. Conclusion: Patients with HI due to mutations in the GLUD1 gene may have normal serum ammonia concentrations. Hence, GLUD1 mutational analysis may be indicated in patients with leucine sensitivity; even in the absence of HA. A high frequency of epilepsy (43%) was observed in our patients with GLUD1 mutations

A new mouse model for the trisomy of the Abcg1-U2af1 region reveals the complexity of the combinatorial genetic code of down syndrome

Mental retardation in Down syndrome (DS), the most frequent trisomy in humans, varies from moderate to severe. Several studies both in human and based on mouse models identified some regions of human chromosome 21 (Hsa21) as linked to cognitive deficits. However, other intervals such as the telomeric region of Hsa21 may contribute to the DS phenotype but their role has not yet been investigated in detail. Here we show that the trisomy of the 12 genes, found in the 0.59 Mb (Abcg1-U2af1) Hsa21 sub-telomeric region, in mice (Ts1Yah) produced defects in novel object recognition, open-field and Y-maze tests, similar to other DS models, but induces an improvement of the hippocampal-dependent spatial memory in the Morris water maze along with enhanced and longer lasting long-term potentiation in vivo in the hippocampus. Overall, we demonstrate the contribution of the Abcg1-U2af1 genetic region to cognitive defect in working and short-term recognition memory in DS models. Increase in copy number of the Abcg1-U2af1 interval leads to an unexpected gain of cognitive function in spatial learning. Expression analysis pinpoints several genes, such as Ndufv3, Wdr4, Pknox1 and Cbs, as candidates whose overexpression in the hippocampus might facilitate learning and memory in Ts1Yah mice. Our work unravels the complexity of combinatorial genetic code modulating different aspect of mental retardation in DS patients. It establishes definitely the contribution of the Abcg1-U2af1 orthologous region to the DS etiology and suggests new modulatory pathways for learning and memor

Correlations and forecast of death tolls in the Syrian conflict

The Syrian armed conflict has been ongoing since 2011 and has already caused thousands of deaths. The analysis of death tolls helps to understand the dynamics of the conflict and to better allocate resources and aid to the affected areas. In this article, we use information on the daily number of deaths to study temporal and spatial correlations in the data, and exploit this information to forecast events of deaths. We found that the number of violent deaths per day in Syria varies more widely than that in England in which non-violent deaths dominate. We have identified strong positive auto-correlations in Syrian cities and non-trivial cross-correlations across some of them. The results indicate synchronization in the number of deaths at different times and locations, suggesting respectively that local attacks are followed by more attacks at subsequent days and that coordinated attacks may also take place across different locations. Thus the analysis of high temporal resolution data across multiple cities makes it possible to infer attack strategies, warn potential occurrence of future events, and hopefully avoid further deaths

L'optimisation fusion - confusion : une synthèse privilégiée du droit et du chiffre

National audienceIt is not always easy to dissociate, in the settlement problems, tax and accounting, the main thing and the ac cessory. Generally, mergers are in this case, simplified mergers and universal transmissions, too. When professionals want, in this field, to optimize integrated, legal choices - tax - accounting, it is often obliged to treat the problem, without assistanc e. This autonomy look that this subject is at the crossroads of several disciplines and it is necessary to compose, without really opposing them. The field of mergers and confusion is a good synthesis of the link Law - management. The company which wishes to absorb its 100 % subsidiary can choose between simplified fusion and dissolution confusion. But the evolution of the accounting settlements came to reduce the range of the tax choices. Regarding merger - confusion, the link right - tax - management thus must and especially to think itself from now on within a framework widened “law – tax - accounting - management”.Il n'est pas toujours facile de dissocier, dans les problèmes juridiques, fiscaux et comptables, le principal de l'accessoire. Les fusions en général sont dans ce cas, les fusions simplifiées et les transmissions universelles en particulier, aussi. Lorsqu'un professi onnel veut, dans ce domaine, optimiser des choix intégrés, juridiques - fiscaux - comptables, il est souvent obligé de traiter lui - même le problème, sans assistance. Cette autonomie montre que ce sujet est au carrefour de plusieurs disciplines avec lesquel les il faut composer, sans vraiment les opposer. Le domaine des opérations de fusion - confusion est une bonne synthèse de la relation droit - gestion. La société qui souhaite absorber sa filiale à 100 % peut choisir entre fusion simplifiée et dissolution confusion. Ce choix de nature juridique n’entame que potentiellement la marge de man œ uvre fiscale pour les entités en présence. Mais l’évolution de la règlementation comptable est venue réduire la portée des choix fiscaux. En matière de fusion - confusion, la relation droit – fiscalité - gestion doit ainsi et surtout se penser désormais dans un cadre élargi « droit - fiscalité - comptabilité – gestion »

Vibration Response of Manual Wheelchairs According to Loads, Propulsion Methods, Speeds, and Ground Floor Types

Other funding : doctoral allowance from the Sorbonne University of Paris Nord (France)Manual wheelchair (MWC) users are daily exposed to vibration during propulsion. The impact of such exposure on the MWC user’s health has yet to be proven. To date, no agreement has been reached, presumably on the account of the wide variety of experimental parameters that need to be controlled. A possible solution relies on the implementation of a User/MWC model to point out the effect of propelling conditions (MWC loads, propulsion methods, speeds, and ground floor types) on the vibration exposure and eventually on the MWC user’s health. To feed such a model, the evaluation of the MWC vibration response during propulsion is required. Following a necessary MWC experimental modal analysis under laboratory conditions, this study presents the vibration response of an MWC under various propelling conditions. For each investigated condition, the identified set of modal parameters was provided and the effect on the MWC response to vibration at the User/MWC interfaces was highlighted. Results mostly underline that the response to vibration is highly dependent on the propelling conditions. The speed and the ground floor type greatly affect the vibration response: doubling speed and increasing ground surface roughness imply threefold and eightfold vibration levels, respectively. Finally, the main outcome is that an empty MWC or an MWC loaded with a dummy generates vibration outside the range measured for an MWC loaded with a human body, resulting in a lower frequency content and an almost two-fold vibration level increase. The findings of this study will help enhance the understanding of the health risks that wheelchair users encounter as a result of vibrations

Using machine learning to forecast conflict events for use in forced migration models

Data availability: The input and output data are publicly available on Figshare with DOI https://doi.org/10.17633/rd.brunel.28401116.v1, under a CC-By 4.0 license.Supplementary Information is available online at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-11812-2#Sec14 .Forecasting the movement of populations during conflict outbreaks remains a significant challenge in contemporary humanitarian efforts. Accurate predictions of displacement patterns are crucial for improving the delivery of aid to refugees and other forcibly displaced individuals. Over the past decade, generalized modeling approaches have demonstrated their ability to effectively predict such movements, provided that accurate estimations of conflict dynamics during the forecasting period are available. However, deriving precise conflict forecasts remains difficult, as many existing methods for conflict prediction are overly coarse in their spatial and temporal resolution, rendering them inadequate for integration with displacement models. In this paper, we propose a hybrid methodology to enhance the accuracy of conflict-driven population displacement forecasts by combining machine learning-based conflict prediction with agent-based modeling (ABM). Our approach uses a coupled model that combines a Random Forest classifier for conflict forecasting with the Flee ABM—a model of the movements of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs). The coupled model is validated using case studies from historical conflicts in Mali, Burundi, South Sudan, and the Central African Republic. Our results demonstrate comparable predictive accuracy over traditional methods without the need for manual conflict estimations in advance, thus reducing the effort and expertise needed for humanitarian professionals to provide urgent displacement forecasts.This work has been supported by the SEAVEA ExCALIBUR project, which has received funding from EPSRC, United Kingdom under grant agreement EP/W007711/1. This project has also received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No 101002240). Simulation runs have been performed using the ARCHER2 Supercomputer, located at EPCC in Edinburgh (project e723)

Vibration Transmission during Manual Wheelchair Propulsion: A Systematic Review

Manual wheelchair (MWC) propulsion can expose the user to significant vibration. Human body exposure to certain vibrations can be detrimental to health, and a source of discomfort and fatigue. Therefore, identifying vibration exposure and key parameters influencing vibration transmissibility during MWC propulsion is crucial to protect MWC users from vibration risks. For that purpose, a systematic review using PRISMA recommendations was realized to synthesize the current knowledge regarding vibration transmissibility during MWC propulsion. The 35 retrieved articles were classified into three groups: Vibration content, parameters influencing vibration transmission, and vibration transmission modeling. The review highlighted that MWC users experience vibration in the frequency range detrimental/uncomfortable for human vibration transmission during MWC propulsion depends on many parameters and is still scarcely studied and understood. A modeling and simulation approach would be an interesting way to assist physicians in selecting the best settings for a specific user, but many works (modeling, properties identification, etc.) must be done before being effective for clinical and industrial purposes

Stringing and dynamics effects on forearm muscular activity during harp playing

The practice of a musical instrument requires fine dexterity, repetitive, fast, and precise move­ments, as well as important efforts to set the instrument into vibration, while adopting postures often unnatural for the human body. As a result, musicians are often subject to pain and muscu­loskeletal disorders. In the case of plucked string instruments and especially the concert harp, the plucking force is directly related to the strings’ tension. Consequently, the choice of the strings has to be made based on both, the musician feel while playing, and the musculoskeletal consequences. This paper investigates how the string properties and the playing dynamics affect the finger and wrist muscle activity during harp playing. This study first emphasized the note­ worthy recruitment of the flexor and extensor muscles (42% and 29% of MVC, respectively). Findings outlined further that the fingering choice, the adopted playing dynamics and the string’s material govern the muscular activity level and the playing control. Such results are a first step to better understand how the harp ergonomics may affect the player’s integrity and help them decide the most suitable stringing for their practice