Rainfall variations in central Indo-Pacific over the past 2,700 y

Tropical rainfall variability is closely linked to meridional shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and zonal movements of the Walker circulation. The characteristics and mechanisms of tropical rainfall variations on centennial to decadal scales are, however, still unclear. Here, we reconstruct a replicated stalagmite-based 2,700-y-long, continuous record of rainfall for the deeply convective northern central Indo-Pacific (NCIP) region. Our record reveals decreasing rainfall in the NCIP over the past 2,700 y, similar to other records from the northern tropics. Notable centennial- to decadal-scale dry climate episodes occurred in both the NCIP and the southern central Indo-Pacific (SCIP) during the 20th century [Current Warm Period (CWP)] and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), resembling enhanced El Niño-like conditions. Further, we developed a 2,000-y-long ITCZ shift index record that supports an overall southward ITCZ shift in the central Indo-Pacific and indicates southward mean ITCZ positions during the early MWP and the CWP. As a result, the drying trend since the 20th century in the northern tropics is similar to that observed during the past warm period, suggesting that a possible anthropogenic forcing of rainfall remains indistinguishable from natural variability

The Asian monsoon - 50-7 ka BP

The Asian monsoon is one of the largest climatic systems on Earth. It covers an area from the Arabian Sea to the South China Sea and from northern Australia to northern China with the world’s highest population density. Moreover, the Asian monsoon transports heat energy and humidity to higher latitudes. In order to better understand the behaviour of the Asian monsoon and its environmental impact, its variability between 50 and 7 ka BP is analysed using paleo-data compilation, data-model comparisons, and lake sediment analysis. The main results presented here are from the compilation of the Asian monsoon variability during the last glacial maximum (LGM) (23 - 19 ka BP) which is presumed to be under persistence cool and dry climatic conditions. The pattern of reconstructed and simulated precipitation agrees well in most of the region. However, the data-model discrepancies show in some areas, which may come from low resolution of the model or the local topographic effect. The reconstructed SSTs are well correlation with simulated SSTs, except in the Arabian Sea. The LGM Asian monsoon changes around 20 – 19 ka BP. The simulated ITCZ varies between 5°N and 15°N in the west and the east of the Asian monsoon region. However, the reconstructed ITCZ is ~5°N in the Arabian Sea, shifts northward in the Bay of Bengal, reaches ~30°N over central of China and migrates southward in the South China Sea. The ITCZ is likely shift northward after 20 ka BP. The climatic change might have been triggered by several factors, e.g., an increased land-sea thermal contrast and a variation of Pacific water inflow

Asian monsoon over mainland Southeast Asia in the past 25 000 years

The objective of this research is to interpret high-resolution palaeo-proxy data sets to understand the Asian summer monsoon variability in the past. This was done by synthesizing published palaeo-records from the Asian monsoon region, model simulation comparisons, and analysing new lake sedimentary records from northeast Thailand. Palaeo-records and climate modeling indicate a strengthened summer monsoon over Mainland Southeast Asia during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), compared to dry conditions in other parts of the Asian monsoon region. This can be explained by the LGM sea level low stand, which exposed Sundaland and created a large land-sea thermal contrast. Sea level rise ~19 600 years before present (BP), reorganized the atmospheric circulation in the Pacific Ocean and weakened the summer monsoon between 20 000 and 19 000 years BP. Both the Mainland Southeast Asia and the East Asian monsoon hydroclimatic records point to an earlier Holocene onset of strengthened summer monsoon, compared to the Indian Ocean monsoon. The asynchronous evolution of the summer monsoon and a time lag of 1500 years between the East Asian and the Indian Ocean monsoon can be explained by the palaeogeography of Mainland Southeast Asia, which acted as a land bridge for the movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The palaeo-proxy records from Lake Kumphawapi compare well to the other data sets and suggest a strengthened summer monsoon between 10 000 and 7000 years BP and a weakening of the summer monsoon thereafter. The data from Lake Pa Kho provides a picture of summer monsoon variability over 2000 years. A strengthened summer monsoon prevailed between BC 170-AD 370, AD 800-960 and since AD 1450, and was weaker about AD 370-800 and AD 1300-1450. The movement of the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone explains shifts in summer monsoon intensity, but weakening of the summer monsoon between 960 and 1450 AD could be affected by changes in the Walker circulation.At the time of the doctoral defense, the following paper was unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 4: Manuscript..</p

Hydroclimatic shifts in northeast Thailand during the last two millennia — The record of Lake Pa Kho

The Southeast Asian mainland is located in the central path of the Asian summer monsoon, a region where paleoclimatic data are still sparse. Here we present a multi-proxy (TOC, C/N, δ13C, biogenic silica, and XRF elemental data) study of a 1.5 m sediment/peat sequence from Lake Pa Kho, northeast Thailand, which is supported by 20 AMS 14C ages. Hydroclimatic reconstructions for Pa Kho suggest a strengthened summer monsoon between BC 170–AD 370, AD 800–960, and after AD 1450; and a weakening of the summer monsoon between AD 370–800, and AD 1300–1450. Increased run-off and a higher nutrient supply after AD 1700 can be linked to agricultural intensification and land-use changes in the region. This study fills an important gap in data coverage with respect to summer monsoon variability over Southeast Asia during the past 2000 years and enables the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to be inferred based on comparisons with other regional studies. Intervals of strengthened/weaker summer monsoon rainfall suggest that the mean position of the ITCZ was located as far north as 35°N between BC 170–AD 370 and AD 800–960, whereas it likely did not reach above 17°N during the drought intervals of AD 370–800 and AD 1300– 1450. The spatial pattern of rainfall variation seems to have changed after AD 1450, when the inferred moisture history for Pa Kho indicates a more southerly location of the mean position of the summer ITCZ