Testing causal relation among central and eastern European equity markets: evidence from asymmetric causality test

The aim of this study is to analyse the presence of a causal link among financial markets of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries by adopting an asymmetric causality test. The standard causality test results suggest a causal relation running from the Czech Republic to Poland. Also, the Poland stock market is found to be a Granger cause of Turkey stock markets. Asymmetric causality test results indicate only a causal link going from the Czech Republic to Hungary and Poland. In addition, the presence of financial integration between Germany and CEE equity markets cannot be determined

İstanbul Menkul Kıymetler Borsası’nda etkin piyasa hipotezinin uzun hafıza modelleri ile analizi: sektörel bazda bir inceleme

In this study, we examine whether the efficient market hypothesis is valid in the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) via parametric and semi parametric long memory models. In order to determine the presence of weak form efficient market hypothesis, we consider 10 sector indices. Semi parametric and parametric long memory model results suggest that the volatility of sector returns exhibit long memory properties and hence it can be said that the ISE is not efficient market

Volatilitede uzun hafıza ve yapısal kırılma: Borsa Istanbul örneği

The aim of this paper is to examine validity of the efficient market hypothesis in Borsa İstanbul. Daily returns series are calculated by using daily closing price for BİST100 and BİST30 indices for periods of 1988-2014 and the presence of long memory on the volatility of the returns series is examined by means of Adaptive-FIGARCH (A-FIGARCH) model proposed by Baillie and Morana (2009). Empirical results suggest that there are multiple structural breaks on variance of returns series and A-FIGARCH model outperforms. In addition, it is found evidence in favor of long memory on the conditional variance of returns series and hence it can be said that Borsa İstanbul is not weak form efficient market

Hysteresis in unemployment: evidence from sector-specific unemployment in Turkey

High levels of inflation and unemployment have been experienced together in the world after 1970’s. Efforts of decreasing inflation have been achieved in the world after 1990’s. The fact that there has been no evidence the unemployment rate beginning to decrease despite the increasing growth rates in the USA and Europe countries recalls hysteresis effect. This phenomenon observed in Turkey after 1994 and 2001 crises. This paper examines hysteresis effect in sector-specific unemployment in Turkey. We apply conventional unit root tests and Zivot-Andrews structural break test to determine the presence of hysteresis effect. Hysteresis effect is only found in Manufacturing and Finance sectors

SPOT VE VADELİ İŞLEM FİYATLARININ VARYANSLARI ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK TESTİ

Volatility in financial markets urges importance of risk management with respect to investors and especially firms. Information and interaction between spot and futures markets plays an important role on formation of market prices. In this study, causality and information flows are examined on spot and futures prices of ISE 100 Index, US Dollar, and Euro which are traded at Turkish Derivatives Exchange (VOB). Dynamic causality test that is originally created by Cheung and Ng (1996) is applied. Dynamic causality test results show that in the ISE 100 Index model spot prices affect futures prices and in the exchange model futures prices affect spot prices

Testing intraday volatility spillovers in Turkish capital markets: evidence from ISE

The aim of this article is to examine the presence of volatility transmission between futures index and underlying stock index by using intraday data in Turkey. We first examined the sudden changes in the variance of futures index return and the underlying spot index return. Then we employed the causality in the variance tests proposed by Hong (2001) and Hafner and Herwartz (2006). According to the empirical results, the spot market was found to be Granger cause of futures market and this result suggests that the spot market plays a more dominant role in the price discovery process in Turkey

SPOT VE VADELİ İŞLEM FİYATLARININ VARYANSLARI ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK TESTİ

Volatility in financial markets urges importance of risk management with respect to investors and especially firms. Information and interaction between spot and futures markets plays an important role on formation of market prices. In this study, causality and information flows are examined on spot and futures prices of ISE 100 Index, US Dollar, and Euro which are traded at Turkish Derivatives Exchange (VOB). Dynamic causality test that is originally created by Cheung and Ng (1996) is applied. Dynamic causality test results show that in the ISE 100 Index model spot prices affect futures prices and in the exchange model futures prices affect spot prices

Volatilitede uzun hafıza ve yapısal kırılma: Borsa Istanbul örneği

The aim of this paper is to examine validity of the efficient market hypothesis in Borsa İstanbul. Daily returns series are calculated by using daily closing price for BİST100 and BİST30 indices for periods of 1988-2014 and the presence of long memory on the volatility of the returns series is examined by means of Adaptive-FIGARCH (A-FIGARCH) model proposed by Baillie and Morana (2009). Empirical results suggest that there are multiple structural breaks on variance of returns series and A-FIGARCH model outperforms. In addition, it is found evidence in favor of long memory on the conditional variance of returns series and hence it can be said that Borsa İstanbul is not weak form efficient market

Downside Business Confidence Spillovers in Europe: Evidence from Causality-in-Risk Tests

This paper employs Hong et al.’s (2009) extreme risk spillovers test to investigate the bilateral business confidence spillovers between Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, France, and Germany. After controlling for domestic economic developments in each country and common international factors, downside risk spillovers are detected as a causal feedback between Spain and Portugal and unilaterally from Spain to Italy. Extremely low business sentiments in France, Germany, and Greece are mostly due to the common adverse economic environment and to each country’s own domestic economic developments

Testing for long memory in ISE using Arfima-Figarch model and structural break test

This study examines long memory in Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) by using the structural break test in variance and ARFIMA-FIGARCH model. Our findings indicate that long memory does not exist in the equity return; however, it exits in volatility. Consequently, ISE is found as a weak form inefficient market due to volatility as it has a predictable component