On the uncertainty of phenological responses to climate change, and implications for a terrestrial biosphere model

Phenology, the timing of recurring life cycle events, controls numerous land surface feedbacks to the climate system through the regulation of exchanges of carbon, water and energy between the biosphere and atmosphere. <br><br> Terrestrial biosphere models, however, are known to have systematic errors in the simulation of spring phenology, which potentially could propagate to uncertainty in modeled responses to future climate change. Here, we used the Harvard Forest phenology record to investigate and characterize sources of uncertainty in predicting phenology, and the subsequent impacts on model forecasts of carbon and water cycling. Using a model-data fusion approach, we combined information from 20 yr of phenological observations of 11 North American woody species, with 12 leaf bud-burst models that varied in complexity. <br><br> Akaike's Information Criterion indicated support for spring warming models with photoperiod limitations and, to a lesser extent, models that included chilling requirements. <br><br> We assessed three different sources of uncertainty in phenological forecasts: parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty, and driver uncertainty. The latter was characterized running the models to 2099 using 2 different IPCC climate scenarios (A1fi vs. B1, i.e. high CO<sub>2</sub> emissions vs. low CO<sub>2</sub> emissions scenario). Parameter uncertainty was the smallest (average 95% Confidence Interval – CI: 2.4 days century<sup>−1</sup> for scenario B1 and 4.5 days century<sup>−1</sup> for A1fi), whereas driver uncertainty was the largest (up to 8.4 days century<sup>−1</sup> in the simulated trends). The uncertainty related to model structure is also large and the predicted bud-burst trends as well as the shape of the smoothed projections varied among models (±7.7 days century<sup>−1</sup> for A1fi, ±3.6 days century<sup>−1</sup> for B1). The forecast sensitivity of bud-burst to temperature (i.e. days bud-burst advanced per degree of warming) varied between 2.2 days °C<sup>−1</sup> and 5.2 days °C<sup>−1</sup> depending on model structure. <br><br> We quantified the impact of uncertainties in bud-burst forecasts on simulated photosynthetic CO<sub>2</sub> uptake and evapotranspiration (ET) using a process-based terrestrial biosphere model. Uncertainty in phenology model structure led to uncertainty in the description of forest seasonality, which accumulated to uncertainty in annual model estimates of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ET of 9.6% and 2.9%, respectively. A sensitivity analysis shows that a variation of ±10 days in bud-burst dates led to a variation of ±5.0% for annual GPP and about ±2.0% for ET. <br><br> For phenology models, differences among future climate scenarios (i.e. driver) represent the largest source of uncertainty, followed by uncertainties related to model structure, and finally, related to model parameterization. The uncertainties we have quantified will affect the description of the seasonality of ecosystem processes and in particular the simulation of carbon uptake by forest ecosystems, with a larger impact of uncertainties related to phenology model structure, followed by uncertainties related to phenological model parameterization

Vegetation-based climate mitigation in a warmer and greener World

The mitigation potential of vegetation-driven biophysical effects is strongly influenced by the background climate and will therefore be influenced by global warming. Based on an ensemble of remote sensing datasets, here we first estimate the temperature sensitivities to changes in leaf area over the period 2003–2014 as a function of key environmental drivers. These sensitivities are then used to predict temperature changes induced by future leaf area dynamics under four scenarios. Results show that by 2100, under high-emission scenario, greening will likely mitigate land warming by 0.71 ± 0.40 °C, and 83% of such effect (0.59 ± 0.41 °C) is driven by the increase in plant carbon sequestration, while the remaining cooling (0.12 ± 0.05 °C) is due to biophysical land-atmosphere interactions. In addition, our results show a large potential of vegetation to reduce future land warming in the very-stringent scenario (35 ± 20% of the overall warming signal), whereas this effect is limited to 11 ± 6% under the high-emission scenario

Damage assessment in single-nave churches and analysis of the most recurring mechanisms after the 2016–2017 central Italy earthquakes

Assessment of churches based on empirical data at a territorial scale is a suitable tool to have an overview of the seismic behaviour of this peculiar structural typology and to evaluate their current state of vulnerability. Fragility and vulnerability curves are also aimed to perform the analysis of different seismic scenarios. The paper presents a detailed typological analysis of 633 single-nave churches, as a selected subset of the database previously examined by the authors, with the aim of evaluating more in detail the influence of some parameters, such as masonry typology, church dimensions and presence of the bell tower, on the vulnerability of the overall church. Then, specific analyses are carried out to assess the influence played by single mechanisms on the definition of the overall damage index, with the focus of providing qualitative evaluations and explicit vulnerability and fragility curves related to the most recurring and significant collapse mechanisms. This is an original contribution of the paper in the field of the vulnerability assessment of churches, since nowadays little information is available in the literature about the damage levels related to specific mechanisms, while most attention is still focused on global damage

Joint leaf chlorophyll content and leaf area index retrieval from Landsat data using a regularized model inversion system (REGFLEC)

Leaf area index (LAI) and leaf chlorophyll content (Chll) represent key biophysical and biochemical controls on water, energy and carbon exchange processes in the terrestrial biosphere. In combination, LAI and Chll provide critical information on vegetation density, vitality and photosynthetic potentials.However, simultaneous retrieval of LAI and Chll fromspace observations is extremely challenging. Regularization strategies are required to increase the robustness and accuracy of retrieved properties and enable more reliable separation of soil, leaf and canopy parameters. To address these challenges, the REGularized canopy reFLECtance model (REGFLEC) inversion system was refined to incorporate enhanced techniques for exploiting ancillary LAI and temporal information derived from multiple satellite scenes. In this current analysis, REGFLEC is applied to a time-series of Landsat data. A novel aspect of the REGFLEC approach is the fact that no site-specific data are required to calibrate the model, which may be run in a largely automated fashion using information extracted entirely from image-based and other widely available datasets. Validation results, based upon in-situ LAI and Chll observations collected over maize and soybean fields in centralNebraska for the period 2001–2005, demonstrate Chll retrievalwith a relative root-mean-square-deviation (RMSD) on the order of 19% (RMSD = 8.42 μg cm−2). While Chll retrievals were clearly influenced by the version of the leaf optical properties model used (PROSPECT), the application of spatio-temporal regularization constraints was shown to be critical for estimating Chll with sufficient accuracy. REGFLEC also reproduced the dynamics of in-situ measured LAI well (r2 = 0.85), but estimates were biased low, particularly over maize (LAI was underestimated by ~36 %). This disparity may be attributed to differences between effective and true LAI caused by significant foliage clumping not being properly accounted for in the canopy reflectance model (SAIL). Additional advances in the retrieval of canopy biophysical and leaf biochemical constituents will require innovative use of existing remote sensing data within physically realistic canopy reflectancemodels along with the ability to exploit the enhanced spectral and spatial capabilities of upcoming satellite systems

Potentials and limitations of NFIs and remote sensing in the assessment of harvest rates: a reply to Breidenbach et al.

AbstractThe timely and accurate monitoring of forest resources is becoming of increasing importance in light of the multi-functionality of these ecosystems and their increasing vulnerability to climate change. Remote sensing observations of tree cover and systematic ground observations from National Forest Inventories (NFIs) represent the two major sources of information to assess forest area and use. The specificity of two methods is calling for an in-depth analysis of their strengths and weaknesses and for the design of novel methods emerging from the integration of satellite and surface data. On this specific debate, a recent paper by Breidenbach et al. published in this journal suggests that the detection of a recent increase in EU forest harvest rate—as reported in Nature by Ceccherini et al.—is largely due to technical limitations of satellite-based mapping. The article centers on the difficulty of the approaches to estimate wood harvest based on remote sensing. However, it does not discuss issues with the robustness of validation approaches solely based on NFIs. Here we discuss the use of plot data as a validation set for remote sensing products, discussing potentials and limitations of both NFIs and remote sensing, and how they can be used synergistically. Finally, we highlight the need to collect in situ data that is both relevant and compatible with remote sensing products within the European Union

Study on NGF and VEGF during the Equine Perinatal Period—Part 2: Foals Affected by Neonatal Encephalopathy

Simple Summary Based on human medicine, Neonatal Encephalopathy is the term used by equine clinicians for newborn foals which develop a variety of non-infectious neurological signs in the immediate postpartum period. It has become the preferred term because it does not imply a specific underlying etiology or pathophysiology, as hypoxia and ischemia may not be recognized in all cases. Understanding the underlying pathophysiology is important in formulating a rational approach to diagnosis. Our aim is to clinically characterize a population of foals spontaneously affected by Neonatal Encephalopathy and to evaluate the levels of trophic factors, such as nerve growth factor and vascular epithelial growth factor, and thyroid hormones obtained at birth/admission from a population of affected foals and in the first 72 h of life/hospitalization, as well as the expression of trophic factors in the placenta of mares that delivered foals affected by Neonatal Encephalopathy. The less pronounced decrease of the two trophic factors compared to healthy foals, their close relationship with thyroid hormones over time, and the dysregulation of trophic factor expression in placental tissues, could be key regulators in the mechanisms of equine Neonatal Encephalopathy. Neonatal Encephalopathy (NE) may be caused by hypoxic ischemic insults or inflammatory insults and modified by innate protective or excitatory mechanisms. Understanding the underlying pathophysiology is important in formulating a rational approach to diagnosis. The preliminary aim was to clinically characterize a population of foals spontaneously affected by NE. The study aimed to: (i) evaluate nerve growth factor (NGF) and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) levels in plasma samples obtained in the affected population at parturition from the mare's jugular vein, umbilical cord vein and foal's jugular vein, as well as in amniotic fluid; (ii) evaluate the NGF and VEGF content in the plasma of foals affected by NE during the first 72 h of life/hospitalization; (iii) evaluate NGF and VEGF levels at birth/admission in relation to selected mare's and foal's clinical parameters; (iv) evaluate the relationship between the two trophic factors and thyroid hormone levels (TT3 and TT4) in the first 72 h of life/hospitalization; and (v) assess the mRNA expression of NGF, VEGF and brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), and their cell surface receptors, in the placenta of mares that delivered foals affected by NE. Thirteen affected foals born from mares hospitalized for peripartum monitoring (group NE) and twenty affected foals hospitalized after birth (group exNE) were included in the study. Dosage of NGF and VEGF levels was performed using commercial ELISA kits, whereas NGF, VEGF, and BDNF placental gene expression was performed using a semi-quantitative real-time PCR. In group NE, NGF levels decreased significantly from T0 to T24 (p = 0.0447) and VEGF levels decreased significantly from T0 to T72 (p = 0.0234), whereas in group exNE, only NGF levels decreased significantly from T0 to T24 (p = 0.0304). Compared to healthy foals, a significant reduction of TT3 levels was observed in both NE (T24, p = 0.0066; T72 p = 0.0003) and exNE (T0, p = 0.0082; T24, p < 0.0001; T72, p < 0.0001) groups, whereas a significant reduction of TT4 levels was observed only in exNE group (T0, p = 0.0003; T24, p = 0.0010; T72, p = 0.0110). In group NE, NGF levels were positively correlated with both TT3 (p = 0.0475; r = 0.3424) and TT4 levels (p = 0.0063; r = 0.4589).In the placenta, a reduced expression of NGF in the allantois (p = 0.0033) and a reduced expression of BDNF in the amnion (p = 0.0498) were observed. The less pronounced decrease of the two trophic factors compared to healthy foals, their relationship with thyroid hormones over time, and the reduced expression of NGF and BDNF in placental tissues of mares that delivered affected foals, could be key regulators in the mechanisms of equine NE

How do variations in the temporal distribution of rainfall events affect ecosystem fluxes in seasonally water-limited Northern Hemisphere shrublands and forests?

As a result of climate change, rainfall regimes became more extreme over the course of the 20th century, characterised by fewer and larger rainfall events. Such changes are expected to continue throughout the current century. The effect of changes in the 5 temporal distribution of rainfall on ecosystem carbon fluxes is poorly understood, with most available information coming from experimental studies of grassland ecosystems. Here, continuous measurements of ecosystem carbon fluxes and precipitation from the worldwide FLUXNET network of eddy-covariance sites are exploited to investigate the effects of differences in rainfall distribution on the carbon balance of seasonally water10 limited shrubland and forest sites. Once the strong dependence of ecosystem fluxes on total annual rainfall amount is accounted for, results show that sites with more extreme rainfall distributions have significantly lower gross productivity, slightly lower ecosystem respiration and consequently a smaller net ecosystem productivity.JRC.H.7-Climate Risk Managemen

Study on NGF and VEGF during the Equine Perinatal Period—Part 1: Healthy Foals Born from Normal Pregnancy and Parturition

The importance of trophic factors, such as nerve growth factor (NGF), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), and brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) during the perinatal period, is now emerging. Through their functional activities of neurogenesis and angiogenesis, they play a key role in the final maturation of the nervous and vascular systems. The present study aims to: (i) evaluate the NGF and VEGF levels obtained at parturition from the mare, foal and umbilical cord vein plasma, as well as in amniotic fluid; (ii) evaluate NGF and VEGF content in the plasma of healthy foals during the first 72 h of life (T0, T24 and T72); (iii) evaluate NGF and VEGF levels at parturition in relation to the selected mares’ and foals’ clinical parameters; (iv) evaluate the relationship between the two trophic factors and the thyroid hormone levels (TT3 and TT4) in the first 72 h of life; (v) assess mRNA expression of NGF, VEGF and BDNF and their cell surface receptors in the placenta. Fourteen Standardbred healthy foals born from mares with normal pregnancies and parturitions were included in the study. The dosage of NGF and VEGF levels was performed using commercial ELISA kits, whereas NGF, VEGF and BDNF placental gene expression was performed using semi-quantitative real-time PCR. In foal plasma, both NGF and VEGF levels decreased significantly over time, from T0 to T24 (p = 0.0066 for NGF; p < 0.0001 for VEGF) and from T0 to T72 (p = 0.0179 for NGF; p = 0.0016 for VEGF). In foal serum, TT3 levels increased significantly over time from T0 to T24 (p = 0.0058) and from T0 to T72 (p = 0.0013), whereas TT4 levels decreased significantly over time from T0 to T24 (p = 0.0201) and from T0 to T72 (p < 0.0001). A positive correlation was found in the levels of NGF and VEGF in foal plasma at each time point (p = 0.0115; r = 0.2862). A positive correlation was found between NGF levels in the foal plasma at T0 and lactate (p = 0.0359; r = 0.5634) as well as between VEGF levels in the foal plasma at T0 and creatine kinase (p = 0.0459; r = 0.5407). VEGF was expressed in all fetal membranes, whereas NGF and its receptors were not expressed in the amnion. The close relationship between the two trophic factors in foal plasma over time and their fine expression in placental tissues appear to be key regulators of fetal development and adaptation to extra-uterine life