The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)

ABSTRACT: The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models' weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ∼20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP≈2,475 years), the POIs with MIH >5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH >3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH >1 m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM18 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning

Sensitivity Study of Hydrodynamic Parameters During Numerical Simulations of Tsunami Inundation

This paper describes the analysis of a parameter, "hydrodynamic demand,'' which can be used to represent the potential for tsunami drag force related damage to structures along coastlines. It is derived from the ratio of drag force to hydrostatic force caused by a tsunami on the structure. It varies according to the instantaneous values of the current velocities and flow depths during a tsunami inundation. To examine the effects of a tsunami in the present study, the analyses were performed using the tsunami numerical model in two altered regular-shaped basins having different bottom slopes. The simulations were implemented using a single sinusoidal wave with particular initial conditions, such as leading elevation wave and leading depression wave profiles with different wave periods. Two different initial wave amplitudes were employed to assess the diversity in the distribution of the square of the Froude number Fr(2) along the coastline. The numerical results were compared quantitatively

Investigation of Tsunami Hydrodynamic Parameters in Inundation Zones with Different Structural Layouts

In this study, we analyze the tsunami parameter "hydrodynamic demand" (HD) using advanced numerical modeling. The HD can be defined as the square of the Froude number, which represents the relative value of the drag force (damage level) of tsunami waves in the inundation zone. The other key hydrodynamic parameters investigated in this study include maximum flow depth (inundation depth), maximum current velocity and its direction, and maximum water elevation and discharge flux occurring during tsunami inundation. The analyses are performed on regular-shaped basins with various orientations and distribution of coastal and land structures in order to provide comparisons of the results in a number of different case studies. We also provide information for defining damage levels in residential areas and for testing the performance of coastal protection structures

What Can Countries in Other Regions Learn from Social Security Reform in Latin America?

About a dozen countries in Latin America have enacted reforms that include elements being contemplated elsewhere, including the partial privatization of social security. It is not easy to draw universal lessons for social security reform from the experience of countries such as Argentina, Chile, and Mexico, however, where sizeable public pension systems went bankrupt before the populations aged, mainly because of mismanagement. Most developing economies have much smaller social security systems. Relatively well-managed systems in industrial countries face problems that are long term in nature and have been brought about by an aging population. The experiences of Latin America nevertheless offer some general lessons for countries in other parts of the world. These lessons relate to changes in labor market incentives accompanying reforms and how workers react to them, government actions that have met with success in managing the transition to funded pensions, and the expectations of individuals from social security systems. Latin America's reforms suggest that the most effective approach is to keep payroll taxes low, governments solvent, and social security systems focused on providing reasonable insurance against poverty in old age. Copyright The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / the world bank . All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: [email protected], Oxford University Press.

Structural and Non-Structural Countermeasures and Awareness Studies After the Tsunami Disaster: Case of Japan

Tsunami generated by the earthquake with a magnitude of 9.0 on March, 11, 2011 caused a high number of casualties and significant economic loss. Planning and reconstruction studies following the 2011 Tsunami in Japan are important examples of countermeasures to be taken against tsunamis In this study, observations from two field surveys conducted after five years following the tsunami event, focusing on structural and non-structural countermeasures in addition to disaster management and creation of disaster awareness studies are presented in details, and current measures in Turkey are also discussed

TSUNAMİ AFETİ SONRASI YAPISAL VE SOSYAL PLANLAMA, YAPILANMA AŞAMALARI VE FARKINDALIK: JAPONYA ÖRNEĞİ

Tsunami generated by the earthquake with a magnitude of 9.0 on March, 11, 2011 caused a high number of casualties and significant economic loss. Planning and reconstruction studies following the 2011 Tsunami in Japan are important examples of countermeasures to be taken against tsunamis In this study, observations from two field surveys conducted after five years following the tsunami event, focusing on structural and non-structural countermeasures in addition to disaster management and creation of disaster awareness studies are presented in details, and current measures in Turkey are also discussed