Assessing ecosystem services from multifunctional trees in pastures using Bayesian belief networks

A Bayesian belief network (BBN) was developed to assess preferred combinations of trees in live fences and on pastures in silvopastoral systems. The BBN was created with information from Rivas, Nicaragua, using local farmer knowledge on tree species, trees' costs and benefits, farmers' expressed needs and aspirations, and scientific knowledge regarding tree functional traits and their contribution to ecosystem services and benefits. The model identifies combinations of trees, which provide multiple ecosystem services from pastures, improving their productivity and contribution to farmer livelihoods. We demonstrate how the identification of portfolios of multifunctional trees can satisfy a profile of desired ecosystem services prioritized by the farmer. Diagnostics using Bayesian inference starts with an identification of farmer needs and ‘works backwards’ to identify a silvopastoral system structure. We conclude that Bayesian belief networks are a promising modeling technique for multi-criteria decisions in farm adaptation processes, where interventions must be adapted to specific contexts and farmer preferences

Local knowledge of impacts of tree cover on ecosystem services in smallholder coffee production systems

International audienceThe potential for tree components of coffee agroforestry systems to provide ecosystem services is widely recognized. Management practices are a key factor in the amount and quality of ecosystem services pro- vided. There is relatively abundant information on ecosystem services provision within agroforestry sys- tems, but comparatively scant information regarding how coffee farmers manage their plantations, the factors influencing their farming practices and the extent to which farmers’ local knowledge – as opposed to global scientific understanding – underpins management decisions. Policymakers and scientists too frequently design development programs and projects in the coffee sector. On occasion technicians are included in the design process, but farmers and their knowledge are always excluded. This research explores farmers’ knowledge regarding how trees affect coffee productivity and ecosystem services in Costa Rica. Farmers’ knowledge on the effects of trees on coffee productivity was compared with that of other knowledge sources: coffee processors, technicians and scientists. Farmers were shown to have detailed knowledge regarding ecosystem services that their coffee agroforestry systems provide as well as on the interactions between trees and coffee productivity. When asked on the services that trees pro- vide, farmers classified trees according to water protection, soil formation, or contribution to biodiversity conservation. These classifications were related to tree attributes such as leaf size, biomass production or root abundance. Comparison of coffee productivity knowledge from different knowledge sources revealed considerable complementarity and little contradiction. The effects of shade trees on biophysical conditions and their interactions with coffee productivity were well understood by farmers. They recorded and classified shade trees as ‘fresh’ (suitable for integra- tion with coffee) or ‘hot’ (unsuitable) based on their leaf texture and size, foliage density, crown shape, and root system attributes. The fresh/hot classification significantly related to positive/negative provision of services. This classification was widely used by farmers, and unknown by coffee technicians. Detailed local knowledge included several different topics, such as the role of trees in soil formation and in abundance of pollinators. Farmers were also aware of the influence of these ecosystem services on crop productivity. Generally, management decisions were made to maintain coffee productivity rather than ecosystem services. Based on these results, it is suggested that technical interventions addressing the improvement of coffee plantations are more likely to be successful if they take into account not only the scientific information on agroforestry interactions but also the knowledge possessed by farmers. Lack of comprehension of local coffee knowledge could be expected to reduce the success of development pro- grams and projects aimed at improving productivity or other ecosystem services

Safety of hospital discharge before return of bowel function after elective colorectal surgery

Background: Ileus is common after colorectal surgery and is associated with an increased risk of postoperative complications. Identifying features of normal bowel recovery and the appropriateness for hospital discharge is challenging. This study explored the safety of hospital discharge before the return of bowel function. Methods: A prospective, multicentre cohort study was undertaken across an international collaborative network. Adult patients undergoing elective colorectal resection between January and April 2018 were included. The main outcome of interest was readmission to hospital within 30 days of surgery. The impact of discharge timing according to the return of bowel function was explored using multivariable regression analysis. Other outcomes were postoperative complications within 30 days of surgery, measured using the Clavien\u2013Dindo classification system. Results: A total of 3288 patients were included in the analysis, of whom 301 (9\ub72 per cent) were discharged before the return of bowel function. The median duration of hospital stay for patients discharged before and after return of bowel function was 5 (i.q.r. 4\u20137) and 7 (6\u20138) days respectively (P < 0\ub7001). There were no significant differences in rates of readmission between these groups (6\ub76 versus 8\ub70 per cent; P = 0\ub7499), and this remained the case after multivariable adjustment for baseline differences (odds ratio 0\ub790, 95 per cent c.i. 0\ub755 to 1\ub746; P = 0\ub7659). Rates of postoperative complications were also similar in those discharged before versus after return of bowel function (minor: 34\ub77 versus 39\ub75 per cent; major 3\ub73 versus 3\ub74 per cent; P = 0\ub7110). Conclusion: Discharge before return of bowel function after elective colorectal surgery appears to be safe in appropriately selected patients