The anti-Roman strategy of Bernardo Tanucci faced with the events of 1768

La lucha entre la Santa Sede y las Cortes Borbónicas que caracterizó el pontificado de Clemente XIII, llegó a su culminación en el año 1768 tras la condena papal del Duque de Parma, Fernando de Borbón, y sus ministros . La respuesta de Francia y España, que se materializó sustancialmente con las represalias militares de Aviñón, Benevento y Pontecorvo, fue asumida con mucha resignación por el Secretario de Estado de Nápoles, Bernardo Tanucci. El análisis de su correspondencia confidencial con el Secretario de Estado de España, Jerónimo Grimaldi, y con el Rey Carlos III, nos da una imagen bastante clara del planteamiento del Ministro sobre los acontecimientos de ese año, poniendo de relieve el aislamiento y la derrota de su línea política.The fight among the Papal Seat and the Bourbon Courts that characterised the reign of Clement XIII, arrived at its culmination in the year 1768 after the Pope condemned the Duke of Parma, Fernando of Bourbon, and its ministers. The response of France and Spain, which materialised substantially with the military reprisals of Avignon, Benevento and Pontecorvo, was accepted with a lot of resignation by the State Secretary of Naples, Bernardo Tanucci. The analysis of his confidential correspondence with the State Secretary of Spain, Jerónimo Grimaldi, and with the King Charles III, gives us a clear enough image of the Minister position as regards the events of that year, showing the isolation and the defeat of his political line

On the Improvement of Default Forecast Through Textual Analysis

Textual analysis is a widely used methodology in several research areas. In this paper we apply textual analysis to augment the conventional set of account defaults drivers with new text based variables. Through the employment of ad hoc dictionaries and distance measures we are able to classify each account transaction into qualitative macro-categories. The aim is to classify bank account users into different client profiles and verify whether they can act as effective predictors of default through supervised classification models

Big data analysis for financial risk management

A very important area of financial risk management is systemic risk modelling, which concerns the estimation of the interrelationships between financial institutions, with the aim of establishing which of them are more central and, therefore, more contagious/subject to contagion. The aim of this paper is to develop a novel systemic risk model. A model that, differently from existing ones, employs not only the information contained in financial market prices, but also big data coming from financial tweets. From a methodological viewpoint, the novelty of our paper is the estimation of systemic risk models using two different data sources: financial markets and financial tweets, and a proposal to combine them, using a Bayesian approach. From an applied viewpoint, we present the first systemic risk model based on big data, and show that such a model can shed further light on the interrelationships between financial institutions

Information theoretic causality detection between financial and sentiment data

The interaction between the flow of sentiment expressed on blogs and media and the dynamics of the stock market prices are analyzed through an information-theoretic measure, the transfer entropy, to quantify causality relations. We analyzed daily stock price and daily social media sentiment for the top 50 companies in the Standard & Poor (S&P) index during the period from November 2018 to November 2020. We also analyzed news mentioning these companies during the same period. We found that there is a causal flux of information that links those companies. The largest fraction of significant causal links is between prices and between sentiments, but there is also significant causal information which goes both ways from sentiment to prices and from prices to sentiment. We observe that the strongest causal signal between sentiment and prices is associated with the Tech sector

Steamboats and pleasure travels: success and failure of the first Spanish initiatives in the mid-nineteenth century

Steam technology revolutionised maritime transport during the nineteenth century. Together with the establishment of the first regular lines, steamers soon led to the commencement of pleasure navigation. The aim of this article is to analyse the impact and scope of this process in Spain, by means of a study of the first experiences in the mid-nineteenth century. In addition to a brief introduction and final conclusions, the paper is structured around four sections. The first contains an appraisal of the situation of passenger transport. Some information is then provided regarding the first cruise in 1854. Next, the essay highlights some of the features of short excursions that were very well received by the public, especially in the island of Majorca. Finally, attention is given to a very special type of travel, the main attraction of which lay in the opportunity to witness an event of a military nature

From elitist to popular tourism: leisure cruises to Spain during the first third of the twentieth century (1900–1936)

This article analyses the evolution of ocean cruises in the first third of the twentieth century. It focuses on inbound cruise traffic to Spain as well as major outbound national markets, particularly the United Kingdom. Analysis is carried out using mainly archival and newspaper sources. The chronological structure of the paper highlights the important changes that took place throughout the period of study. Before the First World War, leisure cruises constituted a sporadic activity. During the inter-war period and particularly after the 1920s, the number of cruises offered grew exponentially. The paper reveals the high level of dependency that ocean cruises had on transatlantic shipping line services and migration traffic. It demonstrates that cruise activity evolved in a very different way to the tourism phenomenon in general. The diffuse and widespread idea that in the past cruses were an exclusive privilege of the elite classes is open to question. During the period between the two world wars, the socio-economic characteristics of cruise passengers changed significantly. Ocean cruises became a holiday product accessible to a much wider and heterogeneous market, particularly in Britain

Information network modeling for U.S. banking systemic risk

In this work we investigate whether information theory measures like mutual information and transfer entropy, extracted from a bank network, Granger cause financial stress indexes like LIBOR-OIS (London Interbank Offered Rate-Overnight Index Swap) spread, STLFSI (St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index) and USD/CHF (USA Dollar/Swiss Franc) exchange rate. The information theory measures are extracted from a Gaussian Graphical Model constructed from daily stock time series of the top 74 listed US banks. The graphical model is calculated with a recently developed algorithm (LoGo) which provides very fast inference model that allows us to update the graphical model each market day. We therefore can generate daily time series of mutual information and transfer entropy for each bank of the network. The Granger causality between the bank related measures and the financial stress indexes is investigated with both standard Granger-causality and Partial Granger-causality conditioned on control measures representative of the general economy conditions

Del transporte de emigrantes a los cruceros turísticos. Las navieras transatlánticas de pasaje en la Europa de la segunda posguerra mundial: el caso español (1945-1960)

This paper seeks to address the strategic evolution of the transatlantic passenger shipping companies over the fifteen year period following the Second World War. It focuses on a very turbulent period of a shipping business principally based on emigration demand. During the period under consideration, the transoceanic shipping lines evolved from a strong dynamic phase to one of incipient decline. The research pursues two basic objectives: to examine the changes that took place in the line services and to analyse the cruise offer in detail, paying particular attention to the Spanish market. The essay includes an innovative estimate of the cruise traffic during the 1950s, taking the port of Barcelona as a reference. The work methodology is based on analysing the port chronicles published by the newspaper La Vanguardia, together with the study of the advertising material gathered from different virtual newspaper libraries. The analysis reveals some important aspects, including the clear autonomy of the evolution of the cruise activity with respect to the overall trend in international tourism.Este ensayo pretende abordar la evolución estratégica de las navieras transatlánticas de pasaje durante los quince años siguientes a la Segunda Guerra Mundial. Se centra en una etapa muy convulsa de un negocio naviero que se basaba principalmente en la demanda de emigración. Durante el período objeto de estudio, las líneas marítimas transoceánicas pasaron rápidamente de una fase de fuerte dinamismo a otra de incipiente declive. La investigación persigue dos objetivos básicos: analizar los cambios que se producen en los servicios de línea y profundizar en la oferta crucerística, prestando especial atención al mercado español. El escrito incluye una novedosa estimación del tráfico de cruceros durante la década de los cincuenta, tomando como referencia el puerto de Barcelona. La metodología de trabajo se ha basado en el análisis de las crónicas portuarias del diario La Vanguardia, junto al manejo del material publicitario recopilado en varias hemerotecas virtuales. Todo ello permite destacar algunos aspectos importantes, como la clara autonomía del crucerismo con respecto a la tendencia general del turismo internacional