An interactive application for malaria elimination transmission and costing in the Asia-Pacific

Leaders in the Asia-Pacific have endorsed an ambitious target to eliminate malaria in the region by 2030. The emergence and spread of artemisinin drug resistance in the Greater Mekong Subregion makes elimination urgent and strategic for the global goal of malaria eradication. Mathematical modelling is a useful tool for assessing and comparing different elimination strategies and scenarios to inform policymakers. Mathematical models are especially relevant in this context because of the wide heterogeneity of regional, country and local settings, which means that different strategies are needed to eliminate malaria. However, models and their predictions can be seen as highly technical, limiting their use for decision making. Simplified applications of models are needed to allow policy makers to benefit from these valuable tools. This paper describes a method for communicating complex model results with a user-friendly and intuitive framework. Using open-source technologies, we designed and developed an interactive application to disseminate the modelling results for malaria elimination. The design was iteratively improved while the application was being piloted and extensively tested by a diverse range of researchers and decision makers. This application allows several target audiences to explore, navigate and visualise complex datasets and models generated in the context of malaria elimination. It allows widespread access, use of and interpretation of models, generated at great effort and expense as well as enabling them to remain relevant for a longer period of time. It has long been acknowledged that scientific results need to be repackaged for larger audiences. We demonstrate that modellers can include applications as part of the dissemination strategy of their findings. We highlight that there is a need for additional research in order to provide guidelines and direction for designing and developing effective applications for disseminating models

Malaria elimination transmission and costing in the Asia-Pacific: developing an investment case

Background:; The Asia-Pacific region has made significant progress against malaria, reducing cases and deaths by over 50% between 2010 and 2015. These gains have been facilitated in part, by strong political and financial commitment of governments and donors. However, funding gaps and persistent health system challenges threaten further progress. Achieving the regional goal of malaria elimination by 2030 will require an intensification of efforts and a plan for sustainable financing. This article presents an investment case for malaria elimination to facilitate these efforts.; Methods:; A transmission model was developed to project rates of decline of; Plasmodium falciparum; and; Plasmodium vivax; malaria and the output was used to determine the cost of the interventions that would be needed for elimination by 2030. In total, 80 scenarios were modelled under various assumptions of resistance and intervention coverage. The mortality and morbidity averted were estimated and health benefits were monetized by calculating the averted cost to the health system, individual households, and society. The full-income approach was used to estimate the economic impact of lost productivity due to premature death and illness, and a return on investment was computed.; Results; : The study estimated that malaria elimination in the region by 2030 could be achieved at a cost of USD 29.02 billion (range: USD 23.65-36.23 billion) between 2017 and 2030. Elimination would save over 400,000 lives and avert 123 million malaria cases, translating to almost USD 90 billion in economic benefits. Discontinuing vector control interventions and reducing treatment coverage rates to 50% will result in an additional 845 million cases, 3.5 million deaths, and excess costs of USD 7 billion. Malaria elimination provides a 6:1 return on investment.; Conclusion:; This investment case provides compelling evidence for the benefits of continued prioritization of funding for malaria and can be used to develop an advocacy strategy

Workflow of the Shiny web application (bit.ly/id_artemisinin_resistance).

<p>Workflow of the Shiny web application (<a href="http://bit.ly/id_artemisinin_resistance" target="_blank">bit.ly/id_artemisinin_resistance</a>).</p

“Use your data” section of the Shiny web application (bit.ly/id_artemisinin_resistance) with a sample result.

<p>“Use your data” section of the Shiny web application (<a href="http://bit.ly/id_artemisinin_resistance" target="_blank">bit.ly/id_artemisinin_resistance</a>) with a sample result.</p

A section of the user interface of the Shiny web application.

<p>(<a href="http://bit.ly/id_artemisinin_resistance" target="_blank">bit.ly/id_artemisinin_resistance</a>).</p

Towards malaria elimination in Savannakhet, Lao PDR: mathematical modelling driven strategy design

Abstract Background The number of Plasmodium falciparum malaria cases around the world has decreased substantially over the last 15 years, but with the spread of resistance against anti-malarial drugs and insecticides, this decline may not continue. There is an urgent need to consider alternative, accelerated strategies to eliminate malaria in countries like Lao PDR, where there are a few remaining endemic areas. A deterministic compartmental modelling tool was used to develop an integrated strategy for P. falciparum elimination in the Savannakhet province of Lao PDR. The model was designed to include key aspects of malaria transmission and integrated control measures, along with a user-friendly interface. Results Universal coverage was the foundation of the integrated strategy, which took the form of the deployment of community health workers who provided universal access to early diagnosis, treatment and long-lasting insecticidal nets. Acceleration was included as the deployment of three monthly rounds of mass drug administration targeted towards high prevalence villages, with the addition of three monthly doses of the RTS,S vaccine delivered en masse to the same high prevalence sub-population. A booster dose of vaccine was added 1 year later. The surveillance-as-intervention component of the package involved the screening and treatment of individuals entering the simulated population. Conclusions In this modelling approach, the sequential introduction of a series of five available interventions in an integrated strategy was predicted to be sufficient to stop malaria transmission within a 3-year period. These interventions comprised universal access to early diagnosis and adequate treatment, improved access to long-lasting insecticidal nets, three monthly rounds of mass drug administration together with RTS,S vaccination followed by a booster dose of vaccine, and screening and treatment of imported cases

Towards malaria elimination in Savannakhet, Lao PDR: mathematical modelling driven strategy design.

BACKGROUND:The number of Plasmodium falciparum malaria cases around the world has decreased substantially over the last 15&nbsp;years, but with the spread of resistance against anti-malarial drugs and insecticides, this decline may not continue. There is an urgent need to consider alternative, accelerated strategies to eliminate malaria in countries like Lao PDR, where there are a few remaining endemic areas. A deterministic compartmental modelling tool was used to develop an integrated strategy for P. falciparum elimination in the Savannakhet province of Lao PDR. The model was designed to include key aspects of malaria transmission and integrated control measures, along with a user-friendly interface. RESULTS:Universal coverage was the foundation of the integrated strategy, which took the form of the deployment of community health workers who provided universal access to early diagnosis, treatment and long-lasting insecticidal nets. Acceleration was included as the deployment of three monthly rounds of mass drug administration targeted towards high prevalence villages, with the addition of three monthly doses of the RTS,S vaccine delivered en masse to the same high prevalence sub-population. A booster dose of vaccine was added 1&nbsp;year later. The surveillance-as-intervention component of the package involved the screening and treatment of individuals entering the simulated population. CONCLUSIONS:In this modelling approach, the sequential introduction of a series of five available interventions in an integrated strategy was predicted to be sufficient to stop malaria transmission within a 3-year period. These interventions comprised universal access to early diagnosis and adequate treatment, improved access to long-lasting insecticidal nets, three monthly rounds of mass drug administration together with RTS,S vaccination followed by a booster dose of vaccine, and screening and treatment of imported cases