Polling in Impossible Conditions: Pre-election Polling in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina

Just months after Hurricane Katrina made landfall, New Orleans held a mayoral election. With so many displaced residents, it was difficult to gauge attitudes, but there are perhaps few more important situations in which the public’s attitudes need to be examined. This paper examines the methodological challenges with survey research in the aftermath of a natural disaster. We conducted a traditional survey just days before the election and attempted to correct for our inability to reach particular segments of the population through post-stratification weights. The results of our poll were relatively accurate for all of the candidates but one – the winner. We recommend in the aftermath of a disaster that researchers provide not only a range of possible outcomes, but also that they should consider other methods, such as focus groups, and alter the usual questions to account for the post-disaster context. Given that the opinion environment after a major disaster is marked by indecision and confusion, it is not surprising that respondents were unsure of their vote choice and/or changed their mind just before the election. Our experience should provide some caution to researchers seeking to measure opinion in these circumstances

Building Good Citizens: The Roles of School Size and Community Context in the Development of Democratic Values

This project examines the role of place in the socialization of young people into civic values, such as participation and tolerance. Are smaller communites better able to foster democratic values than larger ones? Are young people growing up in racially, economically and politically heterogeneous environments more likely to be politically active than those in homogeneous communities? These questions are related to perennial issues within political science, and are also closely tied to important questions in education policy related to school size. The case made by educational scholars that smaller schools are better for most educational outcomes is similar to the arguments others make about the benefits of small communities. I test whether smaller schools are better for democratic values, and examine the relationship between school size and community context. Are smaller schools better because of their size, or because they are most often found in smaller, more homogeneous communities? The results show that young people growing up in smaller towns, and those in less heterogeneous communities have higher levels of political knowledge and participation in school activities, but are less racially tolerant than adolescents living in larger, more diverse communities. In addition, the findings show that school size has very little influence on democratic values, except that young people in smaller schools are more likely to participate in school activities; and, smaller schools are of some benefit to children in urban areas. The final chapter discusses these results in terms of their normative and policy significance

Effects of Anacetrapib in Patients with Atherosclerotic Vascular Disease

BACKGROUND: Patients with atherosclerotic vascular disease remain at high risk for cardiovascular events despite effective statin-based treatment of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels. The inhibition of cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) by anacetrapib reduces LDL cholesterol levels and increases high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels. However, trials of other CETP inhibitors have shown neutral or adverse effects on cardiovascular outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial involving 30,449 adults with atherosclerotic vascular disease who were receiving intensive atorvastatin therapy and who had a mean LDL cholesterol level of 61 mg per deciliter (1.58 mmol per liter), a mean non-HDL cholesterol level of 92 mg per deciliter (2.38 mmol per liter), and a mean HDL cholesterol level of 40 mg per deciliter (1.03 mmol per liter). The patients were assigned to receive either 100 mg of anacetrapib once daily (15,225 patients) or matching placebo (15,224 patients). The primary outcome was the first major coronary event, a composite of coronary death, myocardial infarction, or coronary revascularization. RESULTS: During the median follow-up period of 4.1 years, the primary outcome occurred in significantly fewer patients in the anacetrapib group than in the placebo group (1640 of 15,225 patients [10.8%] vs. 1803 of 15,224 patients [11.8%]; rate ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.85 to 0.97; P=0.004). The relative difference in risk was similar across multiple prespecified subgroups. At the trial midpoint, the mean level of HDL cholesterol was higher by 43 mg per deciliter (1.12 mmol per liter) in the anacetrapib group than in the placebo group (a relative difference of 104%), and the mean level of non-HDL cholesterol was lower by 17 mg per deciliter (0.44 mmol per liter), a relative difference of -18%. There were no significant between-group differences in the risk of death, cancer, or other serious adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with atherosclerotic vascular disease who were receiving intensive statin therapy, the use of anacetrapib resulted in a lower incidence of major coronary events than the use of placebo. (Funded by Merck and others; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN48678192 ; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01252953 ; and EudraCT number, 2010-023467-18 .)

LIKE TURTLES IN THEIR SHELLS?: CIVIC WITHDRAWAL AMONG YOUNG PEOPLE IN DIVERSE SMALL TOWNS

Robert Putnam has argued that ethnic diversity is associated with declines in civic engagement because when faced with diversity, a natural reaction is to retreat into oneself. Goals: This paper tests this proposition by looking at adolescents in small towns that have recently undergone “rapid ethnic diversification”. Immigrants and refugees from Latin America and Southeast Asia have migrated to these small, ethnically homogeneous towns. Methods: I utilize a panel study in which adolescents in five small Iowa public high schools were surveyed at the beginning and the end of an academic year. Conclusions: This paper shows very little evidence of a lasting negative effect of ethnic diversity on civic engagement. In the first wave, young people in the diverse towns have lower levels of political knowledge and trust than those in predominantly-White towns, but they also have higher levels of participation in school activities. At the end of the year, these differences have been alleviated

Smaller Isn't Always Better: School Size and School Participation Among Young People

Although political scientists studying the role of schools on political socialization have focused most of their efforts on curriculum, mainly civic education, education scholars have long recognized that schools influence outcomes through much more than curriculum and have examined school organization extensively, including school size. Much of the recent literature on school size supports smaller schools. The objective of this article is to examine the effect of school size on two political socialization outcomes: adolescent participation in school activities and volunteering. These outcomes are important because they are related to later adult participation. Copyright (c) 2007 by the Southwestern Social Science Association.

Replication Data for: Children’s Views of the American Presidency

Replication data for "Children’s Views of the American Presidency", to be published in Public Opinion Quarterl