A time-series analysis

(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. PremiseDuring the last four decades of the 20th century, the average total fertility rate (TFR) has continuously dropped in Europe, as it generally has in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. The aggregate trend covers considerable differences across Europe, with the main differences appearing between northern and southern European countries (Eurostat 2012).During the same period, important changes have also occurred in the labour market arrangements of both men and women, with changes in individuals' and couples' economic conditions. Whereas by the 1980s the fall in fertility was coupled with a rise in female employment, since the late 1980s the fall has been accompanied by a rise in unemployment, particularly among women.Explaining the determinants of such a fall in fertility and the links with changes in the labour market statuses of both men and women has become a major topic over the last years (D'Addio and Mira d'Ercole 2005; Kreyenfeld 2010).The rise in unemployment for women and men in southern and central European countries that occurred during the 1990s has been proposed as an explanation for the more pronounced decrease in the TFR in these countries, as in other countries with low female labour force participation rates (Ahn and Mira 2002; Adsera 2005; Engelhardt and Prskawetz 2004). This evidence highlights the need to further examine the role of unemployment in fertility behaviour.This paper seeks to describe the connections between fertility and unemployment in Italy from a gender-based and geographic perspective. Italian workers have experienced a rising trend of unemployment - with gender and regional differences - since the mid-nineties, resulting in a feeling of uncertainty about the future. We are in agreement with the hypothesis that macro-level economic conditions are likely to be related to fertility (Brewster and Rindfuss 2000): in particular, economic uncertainty can induce a short-term reduction in fertility that is presumably due to the postponement of decisions to have an (additional) child until the economy recovers.We utilised time series of aggregate data on fertility and unemployment during the interval 1995-2012, which includes the period of economic downturn that began at the end of 2007.We began from the hypothesis that the connection between unemployment and fertility differs among the various Italian regions, and we used a regression dynamic model to evaluate whether changes in fertility in different Italian geographic areas are more related to changes in male or female unemployment, as well as the strength of the link. Moreover, we paid particular attention to specific temporal links between the two series in different geographical areas.The structure of the paper is as follows:- Discussion of the literature and previous research on the relationship between fertility and unemployment of both men and women. We utilised aggregate data, but we also referred to studies of individual-level data to understand how the issue has been addressed by different approaches;- Discussion of these relationships in Italy within the European context;- Methodological approach and analysis of aggregate trends of fertility and unemployment in Italy by gender and geographic area; and- Discussion of the results.2. Unemployment and fertility: A complex relationshipA modern discussion on fertility in developed countries began in the 1960s and focused on the importance of socio-economic factors at the community or country level, 4 the incompatibility between work and family, increasing female education, and the roles of women in different contexts related to specific welfare policies (Oppenheimer 1988; McDonald 2006; Pison 2009).The decrease in fertility rates in the 1960s and 1970s in most industrialised economies was correlated with an increase in female employment (Adsera 2004).

Il turismo in Emilia-Romagna: una sintesi delle recenti tendenze

The article contains a broad description of the tourist trend in the Emilia-Romagna region during the years 2001-2003. Official Istat data are used to place the regional tourism in the national outline, while data from provincial and regional administration are handled to find the specific characteristics of the phenomenon in the region. The analysis is based on structural indicators (hotels and complementary structures capacity) and flux indicators (arrivals, presences and mean time of stay) with particular reference to guest’s nationality. National and international tourist fluxes are analysed considering the kind of structure used, the kind of tourist resort, destinations and seasonality

Il turismo in Emilia-Romagna: una sintesi delle recenti tendenze.

The article contains a broad description of the tourist trend in the Emilia-Romagna region during the years 2001-2003. Official Istat data are used to place the regional tourism in the national outline, while data from provincial and regional administration are handled to find the specific characteristics of the phenomenon in the region. The analysis is based on structural indicators (hotels and complementary structures capacity) and flux indicators (arrivals, presences and mean time of stay) with particular reference to guest’s nationality. National and international tourist fluxes are analysed considering the kind of structure used, the kind of tourist resort, destinations and seasonality. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------- Il lavoro descrive l’andamento dell’offerta e della domanda nel settore turistico dal 2001 al 2003 all’interno della regione Emilia-Romagna, con particolare accento alle modifiche più rilevanti avvenute in questo triennio. Dopo aver collocato il turismo regionale nel quadro nazionale e rilevato i principali provvedimenti legislativi regionali in materia di turismo, si propone inizialmente un’analisi territoriale disaggregata a livello provinciale. Un secondo punto di vista concerne le origini dei flussi turistici italiano ed estero, e quindi le nazionalità dei clienti ospitati nelle strutture ricettive dell’Emilia-Romagna in relazione alla scelta dell’esercizio utilizzato, al tipo di località turistica visitata, alle diverse destinazioni prescelte e alla stagionalità dei flussi.tourism, demand, offer, arrivals, presences, mean time of permanence

Technical skills and movement coordination in elite, national and regional level race walkers

Introduction: Race walking (RW) is a very peculiar form of locomotion that requires athletes to walk as fast as possible following two main rules: keep the knee of the supporting leg locked “from the moment of first contact with the ground until the vertical upright position”; and, generate a progression of steps with no visible flight phase. Previous studies have attempted to characterize RW performance, but the use of conventional analytical tools, including kinematic, kinetic and physiological measures, has not been very successful in discriminating between different skill levels and identifying the factors for excellent performance. Improved experimental protocols and finer analytical tools are needed to unveil the subtle differences existing between athletes of different competitive standard.Aim: To compare coordination and coordination variability in RW, and highlight differences between elite-, national- and regional-standard athletes.Method: A cross-sectional design was used to study the changes in coordination variability as a factor of skill level. Fifteen competitive male race walkers were assigned to the Elite, National or Regional groups depending on their season best performance, and were asked to race walk on a treadmill at 15 km/h. Optoelectronic motion capture was used to record 40 gait cycles for each participant. Pelvis and lower limb kinematics was used to study coordination variability through a dynamical system approach [1]. Continuous relative phase and its variability across multiple strides were estimated (Figure 1a). Multiple joint couplings (e.g. hip-knee, knee-ankle) and movement phases (e.g. early and late stance, swing) were considered. Kruskal-Wallis tests were used to assess the between-group differences for each variable.Results and Discussion: Results appeared to support the hypothesis that coordination variability increases during transition phases (e.g. heel-strike and toe-off) (Figure 1b). Overall, less skilled athletes tended to produce larger coordination variability, with significantly higher values of deviation phase during the early-stance phase of the hip-knee (P=0.20), and pelvis-hip (P=0.09) couplings. Individual coordinative patterns showed the potential for characterizing individual peculiarities in specific phases of the movement and to improve the understanding of technical skills, however more work is needed to relate coordinative measures with features of the neuro-muscular-skeletal system organization.References[1] Preatoni, E., Hamill, J., Harrison, A.J., Hayes, K., Van Emmerik, R.E.A., Wilson, C., Rodano, R., 2013. Movement variability and skills monitoring in sports. Sports Biomechanics 12, 69-92.<br/