No Time for Time: Trans-temporal Creation of a Time-bound Realm

The radical contingency of all scientific laws is now recognized, owing to new vistas opened by research in Quantum Field Theory, a contingency that implies the dependence of the structural parameters and developmental trajectories of the universe upon the creative power of God. This essay delineates a specific model of a temporal causation, which elucidates the relationship between a time-bound universe and a God who is beyond time

The role of intelligent systems in delivering the smart grid

The development of "smart" or "intelligent" energy networks has been proposed by both EPRI's IntelliGrid initiative and the European SmartGrids Technology Platform as a key step in meeting our future energy needs. A central challenge in delivering the energy networks of the future is the judicious selection and development of an appropriate set of technologies and techniques which will form "a toolbox of proven technical solutions". This paper considers functionality required to deliver key parts of the Smart Grid vision of future energy networks. The role of intelligent systems in providing these networks with the requisite decision-making functionality is discussed. In addition to that functionality, the paper considers the role of intelligent systems, in particular multi-agent systems, in providing flexible and extensible architectures for deploying intelligence within the Smart Grid. Beyond exploiting intelligent systems as architectural elements of the Smart Grid, with the purpose of meeting a set of engineering requirements, the role of intelligent systems as a tool for understanding what those requirements are in the first instance, is also briefly discussed

Using evidence combination for transformer defect diagnosis

This paper describes a number of methods of evidence combination, and their applicability to the domain of transformer defect diagnosis. It explains how evidence combination fits into an on-line and implemented agent-based condition monitoring system, and the benefits of giving selected agents reflective abilities. Reflection has not previously been deployed in an industrial setting, and theoretical work has been in domains other than power engineering. This paper presents the results of implementing five different methods of evidence combination, showing that reflective techniques give greater accuracy than non-reflective

Issues in integrating existing multi-agent systems for power engineering applications

Multi-agent systems (MAS) have proven to be an effective platform for diagnostic and condition monitoring applications in the power industry. For example, a multi-agent system architecture, entitled condition monitoring multi-agent system (COMMAS) (McArthur et al., 2004), has been applied to the ultra high frequency (UHF) monitoring of partial discharge activity inside transformers. Additionally, a multi-agent system, entitled protection engineering diagnostic agents (PEDA) (Hossack et al., 2003), has demonstrated the use of MAS technology for automated and enhanced post-fault analysis of power systems disturbances based on SCADA and digital fault recorder (DFR) data. In this paper, the authors propose the integration of COMMAS and PEDA as a means of offering enhanced decision support to engineers tasked with managing transformer assets. By providing automatically interpreted data related to condition monitoring and power system disturbances, the proposed integrated system offer engineers a more comprehensive picture of the health of a given transformer. Defects and deterioration in performance can be correlated with the operating conditions it experiences. The integration of COMMAS and PEDA has highlighted the issues inherent to the inter-operation of existing multi-agent systems and, in particular, the issues surrounding the use of differing ontologies. The authors believe that these issues need to be addressed if there is to be widespread deployment of MAS technology within the power industry. This paper presents research undertaken to integrate the two MAS and to deal with ontology issues

Using a high fidelity CCGT simulator for building prognostic systems

Pressure to reduce maintenance costs in power utilities has resulted in growing interest in prognostic monitoring systems. Accurate prediction of the occurrence of faults and failures would result not only in improved system maintenance schedules but also in improved availability and system efficiency. The desire for such a system has driven research into the emerging field of prognostics for complex systems. At the same time there is a general move towards implementing high fidelity simulators of complex systems especially within the power generation field, with the nuclear power industry taking the lead. Whilst the simulators mainly function in a training capacity, the high fidelity of the simulations can also allow representative data to be gathered. Using simulators in this way enables systems and components to be damaged, run to failure and reset all without cost or danger to personnel as well as allowing fault scenarios to be run faster than real time. Consequently, this allows failure data to be gathered which is normally otherwise unavailable or limited, enabling analysis and research of fault progression in critical and high value systems. This paper presents a case study of utilising a high fidelity industrial Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) simulator to generate fault data, and shows how this can be employed to build a prognostic system. Advantages and disadvantages of this approach are discussed

An agent-based implementation of hidden Markov models for gas turbine condition monitoring

This paper considers the use of a multi-agent system (MAS) incorporating hidden Markov models (HMMs) for the condition monitoring of gas turbine (GT) engines. Hidden Markov models utilizing a Gaussian probability distribution are proposed as an anomaly detection tool for gas turbines components. The use of this technique is shown to allow the modeling of the dynamics of GTs despite a lack of high frequency data. This allows the early detection of developing faults and avoids costly outages due to asset failure. These models are implemented as part of a MAS, using a proposed extension of an established power system ontology, for fault detection of gas turbines. The multi-agent system is shown to be applicable through a case study and comparison to an existing system utilizing historic data from a combined-cycle gas turbine plant provided by an industrial partner

Designing Wind Turbine Condition Monitoring Systems Suitable for Harsh Environments

Research into wind turbine condition monitoring is continually receiving greater attention due to the potential benefits from condition monitoring systems (CMS). These benefits can only be realised with high reliability of the condition monitoring system itself. This paper discusses how CMS reliability can be increased, by introducing four types of robustness and how to design the CMS to meet these requirements. The paper uses a case study CMS installation to illustrate the design requirements, and lessons learned from the installation process

Circuit breaker prognostics using SF6 data

Control decisions within future energy networks may take account of the health and condition of network assets, pushing condition monitoring within the smart grid remit. In order to support maintenance decisions, this paper proposes a circuit breaker prognostic system, which ranks circuit breakers in order of maintenance priority. By monitoring the SF6 density within a breaker, the system not only predicts the number of days to a critical level, but also incorporates uncertainty by giving upper and lower bounds on the prediction. This prognostic model, which performs linear regression, will be described in this paper, along with case studies demonstrating ranking breakers based on maintenance priority and prognosis of a leaking breaker. Providing an asset manager with this type of information could allow improved management of his/her assets, potentially deferring maintenance to a time when an outage is already scheduled

On-line transformer condition monitoring through diagnostics and anomaly detection

This paper describes the end-to-end components of an on-line system for diagnostics and anomaly detection. The system provides condition monitoring capabilities for two in- service transmission transformers in the UK. These transformers are nearing the end of their design life, and it is hoped that intensive monitoring will enable them to stay in service for longer. The paper discusses the requirements on a system for interpreting data from the sensors installed on site, as well as describing the operation of specific diagnostic and anomaly detection techniques employed. The system is deployed on a substation computer, collecting and interpreting site data on-line

Identifying Prognostic Indicators for Electrical Treeing in Solid Insulation through PD Analysis

This paper presents early results from an experimental study of electrical treeing on commercially available pre-formed silicone samples. A needle-plane test arrangement was set up using hypodermic needles. Partial discharge (PD) data was captured using both the IEC 60270 electrical method and radio frequency (RF) sensors, and visual observations are made using a digital microscope. Features of the PD plot that corresponded to electrical tree growth were assessed, evaluating the similarities and differences of both PD measurement techniques. Three univariate phase distributions were extracted from the partial discharge phase-resolved (PRPD) plot and the first four statistical moments were determined. The implications for automated lifetime prediction of insulation samples due to electrical tree development are discussed