Similarity Measures and Dimensionality Reduction Techniques for Time Series Data Mining

The chapter is organized as follows. Section 2 will introduce the similarity matching problem on time series. We will note the importance of the use of efficient data structures to perform search, and the choice of an adequate distance measure. Section 3 will show some of the most used distance measure for time series data mining. Section 4 will review the above mentioned dimensionality reduction techniques

Seismic Hazard Mapping inside the Project SIGMA

The Project SIGMA (Sistema Integrato di sensori in ambiente cloud per la Gestione Multirischio Avanzata) arises from the fields of Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) and advanced applications for the control, monitoring and management of high-risk processes of natural and social origin. SIGMA is a multilevel architecture whose main aim is the acquisition, integration and processing of heterogeneous data from different sources (seismic, volcanic, meteorologic, hydric, pluvial, car traffic, marine traffic, and so on) to manage and elaborate risk mitigation strategies which are important for the emergency management planning. Within the several experimental activities included in the project, there is the designing and realization of a prototype of application platform specialized to provide the operating procedures and software to the public administrations and the industrial companies, for constantly monitoring both the anthropic and natural phenomena in Sicily. In this framework, of course, the seismic risk analysis plays a very important role since Sicily is one of the Italian regions with high seismic risk. Seismic risk assessment may be approached in two different ways: i) as average seismic risk of the buildings and facilities in question during the period considered, combining the vulnerability of different building types and the seismic hazard for the site, which are then expressed in terms of the effects of the events derived from an earthquake catalogue that exceed a specified threshold during a given period; ii) as estimated damage of the buildings and the critical facilities using a scenario input described in terms of the source parameters of the hypocenter as location, magnitude, and so on. Here we deal with the hazard calculation through the code CRISIS (Ordaz, Aguilar and Arboleda) and with the code PROSCEN (PRObabilistic SCENario, [Rotondi and Zonno, 2010]) to obtain earthquake scenario to be used in the latter approach. Indeed, an earthquake scenario is a planning tool that helps decision makers to visualize the specific impact of an earthquake based on the scientific knowledge. An earthquake scenario creates a picture that the members of community can recognize and, at the same time, improves the communication between the scientific, emergency management and policy communities to seismic risk reduction

Interplay between Tectonics and Mount Etna’s Volcanism: Insights into the Geometry of the Plumbing System

Mt. Etna lies in front of the southeast-verging Apennine-Maghrebian fold-and-thrust belt, where the NNW-trending Malta Escarpment separates the Sicilian continental crust from the Ionian Mesozoic oceanic basin, presently subducting beneath the Calabrian arc (Selvaggi and Chiarabba, 1995). Seismic tomographic studies indicate the presence of a mantle plume beneath the volcano with a Moho transition at depth less than 20 km (Nicolich et al.,2000; Barberi et al., 2006). Geophysical and geological evidences suggest that the Mt. Etna magma ascent mechanism is related to the major NNW-trending lithospheric fault (Doglioni et al., 2001). However, the reason for the Mt. Etna mantle plume draining and channeling the magma from the upper mantle source to the surface is not yet clear. All models proposed in literature (Rittmann, 1973; Tanguy et al., 1997; Monaco et al.; 1997; Gvirtzman and Nur, 1999; Doglioni et al., 2001) do not explain why such a mantle plume has originated in this anomalous external position with respect to the arc magmatism and back-arc spreading zones associated with the Apennines subduction. Some ideas on the subduction rollback must be better developed through the comparison with new regional tomographic studies that are being released. Moreover, tomographic studies reveal a complex and large plumbing system below the volcano from -2 to -7 km a.s.l., wide up to 60 km2 that reduces itself in size down to -18 km of depth close to the apex of the mantle plume. Chiocci et al. (2011) found a large bulge on the underwater continental margin facing Mt. Etna, and suggested that the huge crystallized magma body intruded in the middle and upper continental crust was able to trigger an instability process involving the Sicilian continental margin during the last 0.1 Ma. This phenomenon induces the sliding of the volcano eastern flank observed since the 90s (Borgia et al, 1992; Lo Giudice and Rasà, 1992) because the effects of the bulge collapse are propagating upslope, and the continuous decompression at the volcano summit favors the ascent of basic magma without lengthy storage in the upper crust, as one might expect in a compressive tectonic regime. Taken together, these new evidences (tomographic, tectonic, volcanic) are concerned with the exceptional nature of Mt. Etna and raise the need to explain the origin of the mantle plume that supplies its volcanism. The lower crust and the uppermost mantle need to be better resolved in future experiments and studies. The use of regional and teleseismic events for tomography and receiver function analyses is required to explore a volume that has only marginally been investigated to date. The relation between the magma source in the mantle and the upper parts of the system, as well as the hypothesis above reported on the relation between tectonics and volcanism and the role of lithospheric faults, could be resolved only by applying seismological techniques able to better constrain broader and deeper models. Finally, although the recent tomographic inversions have progressively improved our knowledge of Etna’s shallow structure, highlighting a complex pattern of magma chambers and conduits with variable dimensions, the geometry of the conduits and the dimensions and shapes of small magmatic bodies still require greater investigation. Their precise definition is crucial to delineate a working model of this volcano in order to understand its behaviour and evolution. For this purpose, at least within the volcanic edifice, the precise locations of the seismo-volcanic signals can be considered a useful tool to constrain both the area and the depth range of magma degassing and the geometry of the shallow conduits. In this work, we furnish evidences that the tremor and LP locations allowed to track magma migration during the initial phase of the 2008-2009 eruption and in particular the initial northward dike intrusion, also confirmed by other geophysical, structural and volcanological observations (Aloisi et al., 2009; Bonaccorso et al., 2011), and the following fissure opening east of the summit area at the base of SEC. All these evidences, obtained by the marked improvement in the monitoring system together with the development of new processing techniques, allowed us to constrain both the area and the depth range of magma degassing, highlighting the geometry of the magmatic system feeding the 2008-2009 eruption

Operational volcanic ash monitoring during Etna volcanic crises

Operational systems able to monitor volcanic ash in real time and provide both critical eruption parameters and useful warnings to emergency responders and government agencies should be implemented in most volcanic observatories worldwide. Over the past ten years, more than fifty lava fountains occurred at Mt. Etna (Italy) that produced eruption columns more than 10 km a.s.l. and generated large tephra fallout around the volcano flanks. For civil protection purposes, there was the need to improve the already existing monitoring systems daily run at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica and Vulcanologia, mainly based on eruption scenarios (weak and strong plume scenarios). We present a new upgraded system that has multiple objectives: i) to have a fast system able to best identify the type of eruptive scenario; ii) to forecast the tephra deposit in near real time, i.e. within a few hours from the eruptive event; iii) to determine the area impacted by clasts larger than 5 cm that could severely injure hikers, guides, and volcanologists and damage infrastructures in proximity of Etna summit craters. This new system is based on the real-time estimate of column height from the analysis of images taken by SEVIRI satellite and by new calibrated cameras and using meteorological parameters obtained by local models.PublishedVienna , Austria6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischi

Near-Real-Time Tephra Fallout Assessment at Mt. Etna, Italy

During explosive eruptions, emergency responders and government agencies need to make fast decisions that should be based on an accurate forecast of tephra dispersal and assessment of the expected impact. Here, we propose a new operational tephra fallout monitoring and forecasting system based on quantitative volcanological observations and modelling. The new system runs at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Etneo (INGV-OE) and is able to provide a reliable hazard assessment to the National Department of Civil Protection (DPC) during explosive eruptions. The new operational system combines data from low-cost calibrated visible cameras and satellite images to estimate the variation of column height with time and model volcanic plume and fallout in near-real-time(NRT). The new system has three main objectives: (i) to determine column height in NRT using multiple sensors (calibrated cameras and satellite images); (ii) to compute isomass and isopleth maps of tephra deposits in NRT; (iii) to help the DPC to best select the eruption scenarios run daily by INGV-OE every three hours. A particular novel feature of the new system is the computation of an isopleth map, which helps to identify the region of sedimentation of large clasts (≥5 cm) that could cause injuries to tourists, hikers, guides, and scientists, as well as damage buildings in the proximity of the summit craters. The proposed system could be easily adapted to other volcano observatories worldwide.Publishedid 29876V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischioJCR Journa

A new way to reduce the impact from tephra fallout during Etna explosive eruptions

The frequent number of explosive events at Mt. Etna, in Italy, over the last ten years, has made necessary the improvement of volcanic ash monitoring and forecasting system at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Etneo (INGV-OE). Tephra fallout produced during Etna lava fountains largely impact the population living on the volcano flanks. In addition, during one of the most powerful paroxysms, large clasts fell in proximal areas injured tourists and hikers. To reduce risk, the Italian Department Civil Protection (DPC) asked and funded INGV-OE to do a research project finalized to three specific objectives. First, identify the plume scenario (i.e. weak plume scenario (WPS) and strong plume scenarios (SPS)) based on 1-D plume model. Second, forecast characteristics of tephra deposition using near real time observations. Third, identify the region possibly impacted by large clasts (>5 cm). Two algorithms were developed to measure the column height. One from the calibrated images of two visible cameras installed on the S and W flanks of the volcano, respectively; and the other one from satellite data using a procedure based on the computation of the volcanic plume-top brightness temperature at 10.8 mm. The analysis of lava fountains that occurred between 2011 and 2015 provided the opportunity to differentiate between weak, transitional and strong plumes. The uncertainty associated with eruption source parameters, while maintaining a fixed plume height, was also assessed. In the near future the implementation of these products into the INGV-OE - monitoring room will guarantee a better and timely information to civil protection authorities charged of risk prevention at different levels of responsibility.PublishedNapoli6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischi

Data mining on geophysics

The process of automatic extraction, recognition, description and classification of patterns from huge amount of data plays an important role in modern volcano monitoring techniques. In particular, the ability of certain systems to recognize different volcano status can help the researchers to better understand the complex dynamics underlying the geophysical system. The geophysical data are automatically measured and recorded by geophysical instruments. Their interpretation is very important for the investigation of earth s behavior. The fundamental task of volcano monitoring is to follow volcanic activity and promptly recognize any changes. To achieve such goals, different geophysical techniques (i.e. seismology, ground deformation, remote sensing, magnetic and electromagnetic studies, gravimetric) are used to obtain precise measurements of the variations induced by an evolving magmatic system. To proper exploit the wealth of such heterogeneous data, algorithms and techniques of data mining are fundamental tools. This thesis can be considered a detailed report about the application of the data mining discipline in the geophysical area. After introducing the basic concepts and the most important techniques constituting the state-of-art in the data mining field, we will apply several methods able to reach important results about the extraction of unknown recurrent patterns in seismic and infrasonic signals, and we will show the implementation of systems representing efficient tools for the monitoring purpose