Automatic Forecast of Intensive Care Unit Admissions: The Experience During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy

The experience of the COVID-19 pandemic showed the importance of timely monitoring of admissions to the ICU admissions. The ability to promptly forecast the epidemic impact on the occupancy of beds in the ICU is a key issue for adequate management of the health care system. Despite this, most of the literature on predictive COVID-19 models in Italy has focused on predicting the number of infections, leaving trends in ordinary hospitalizations and ICU occupancies in the background. This work aims to present an ETS approach (Exponential Smoothing Time Series) time series forecasting tool for admissions to the ICU admissions based on ETS models. The results of the forecasting model are presented for the regions most affected by the epidemic, such as Veneto, Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, and Piedmont. The mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) between observed and predicted admissions to the ICU admissions remain lower than 11% for all considered geographical areas. In this epidemiological context, the proposed ETS forecasting model could be suitable to monitor, in a timely manner, the impact of COVID-19 disease on the health care system, not only during the early stages of the pandemic but also during the vaccination campaign, to quickly adapt possible preventive interventions

Obstetric near-miss cases among women admitted to intensive care units in Italy

Objective. Maternal near-miss defines a narrow category of morbidity encompassing potentially life-threatening episodes. The purpose of this study was to detect near-miss instances among women admitted to intensive care units or coronary units, analyze associated causes, and compute absolute and specific maternal morbidity rates in six Italian regions. Design. Observational retrospective study. Setting. Six Italian regions representing 49% of all resident Italian women aged 15-49 years. Population. The study population included all pregnant women aged 15-49 years admitted to intensive care units or coronary care units in the participating regions. Cases were defined as women aged 15-49 years resident in the participating regions, with one or more hospitalizations in intensive care for pregnancy or any pregnancy outcome between 2004 and 2005. Methods. Cases were identified through the Hospital Discharge Database. Enrolled cases were diagnosed according to the 9th International Classification of Diseases. Main outcome measure. Maternal near-miss rate (number of women experiencing an admission to intensive care units/all women with live or stillborn babies). Results. A total of 1259 near-miss cases were identified and the total maternal near-miss rate was 2.0/1000 deliveries. Seventy percent of the women were admitted to intensive care units or coronary units after a cesarean section. The leading associated risk factors were obstetric hemorrhage/disseminated intravascular coagulation (40%) and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (29%). Conclusions. Monitoring of near-miss morbidity in conjunction with mortality surveillance could help to identify effective preventive measures for potentially life-threatening episodes

Highly time-resolved chemical speciation and source apportionment of organic aerosol components in Delhi, India, using extractive electrospray ionization mass spectrometry

In recent years, the Indian capital city of Delhi has been impacted by very high levels of air pollution, especially during winter. Comprehensive knowledge of the composition and sources of the organic aerosol (OA), which constitutes a substantial fraction of total particulate mass (PM) in Delhi, is central to formulating effective public health policies. Previous source apportionment studies in Delhi identified key sources of primary OA (POA) and showed that secondary OA (SOA) played a major role but were unable to resolve specific SOA sources. We address the latter through the first field deployment of an extractive electrospray ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometer (EESI-TOF) in Delhi, together with a high-resolution aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS). Measurements were conducted during the winter of 2018/19, and positive matrix factorization (PMF) was used separately on AMS and EESI-TOF datasets to apportion the sources of OA. AMS PMF analysis yielded three primary and two secondary factors which were attributed to hydrocarbon-like OA (HOA), biomass burning OA (BBOA-1 and BBOA-2), more oxidized oxygenated OA (MO-OOA), and less oxidized oxygenated OA (LO-OOA). On average, 40 % of the total OA mass was apportioned to the secondary factors. The SOA contribution to total OA mass varied greatly between the daytime (76.8 %, 10:00–16:00 local time (LT)) and nighttime (31.0 %, 21:00–04:00 LT). The higher chemical resolution of EESI-TOF data allowed identification of individual SOA sources. The EESI-TOF PMF analysis in total yielded six factors, two of which were primary factors (primary biomass burning and cooking-related OA). The remaining four factors were predominantly of secondary origin: aromatic SOA, biogenic SOA, aged biomass burning SOA, and mixed urban SOA. Due to the uncertainties in the EESI-TOF ion sensitivities, mass concentrations of EESI-TOF SOA-dominated factors were related to the total AMS SOA (i.e. MO-OOA + LO-OOA) by multiple linear regression (MLR). Aromatic SOA was the major SOA component during the daytime, with a 55.2 % contribution to total SOA mass (42.4 % contribution to total OA). Its contribution to total SOA, however, decreased to 25.4 % (7.9 % of total OA) during the nighttime. This factor was attributed to the oxidation of light aromatic compounds emitted mostly from traffic. Biogenic SOA accounted for 18.4 % of total SOA mass (14.2 % of total OA) during the daytime and 36.1 % of total SOA mass (11.2 % of total OA) during the nighttime. Aged biomass burning and mixed urban SOA accounted for 15.2 % and 11.0 % of total SOA mass (11.7 % and 8.5 % of total OA mass), respectively, during the daytime and 15.4 % and 22.9 % of total SOA mass (4.8 % and 7.1 % of total OA mass), respectively, during the nighttime. A simple dilution–partitioning model was applied on all EESI-TOF factors to estimate the fraction of observed daytime concentrations resulting from local photochemical production (SOA) or emissions (POA). Aromatic SOA, aged biomass burning, and mixed urban SOA were all found to be dominated by local photochemical production, likely from the oxidation of locally emitted volatile organic compounds (VOCs). In contrast, biogenic SOA was related to the oxidation of diffuse regional emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes. The findings of this study show that in Delhi, the nighttime high concentrations are caused by POA emissions led by traffic and biomass burning and the daytime OA is dominated by SOA, with aromatic SOA accounting for the largest fraction. Because aromatic SOA is possibly more toxic than biogenic SOA and primary OA, its dominance during the daytime suggests an increased OA toxicity and health-related consequences for the general public.</p

Prevalence of dementia in Tuscany: results from four population-based epidemiological studies

OBJECTIVE: to provide information on epidemiology of dementia in Tuscany needed to plan for dedicated health and social services. DESIGN: analysis of pooled baseline data from 4 population-based longitudinal studies. SETTING: 4 municipalities in Tuscany. PARTICIPANTS: 4,056 elderly subjects enrolled in 4 longitudinal studies. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: age- and sex-specific dementia prevalence rates and estimated number of demented people, by degree of cognitive impairment and BADL disability in the elderly population of Tuscany. RESULTS: out of the evaluated subjects, 293 are demented. Prevalence of dementia increases from about 1 % in the 65-69 age group to about 28 % in the 90+ age group both among women and men. About 43% of the demented study subjects suffer from severe mental deterioration (MMSE &lt; 14) and56% are disabled in at least one Basic Activity of Daily Living (BADL). We estimate that about 19 thousand demented elderly men and 40 thousand demented elderly women are currently living in Tuscany of whom 26 thousand severely mentally impaired and 34 thousand disabled in at least one BADL. The resulting overall dementia prevalence standardised on the Italian 65+ population is 5,3% for men and 7,7% for women. CONCLUSIONS: these estimates could be used as a basis for the evaluation and the planning of social and health care services dedicated to demented people

Cause specific mortality in an Italian pool of asbestos workers cohorts

Background Asbestos is a known human carcinogen and is causally associated with malignant mesothelioma, lung, larynx and ovarian cancers.Methods Cancer risk was studied among a pool of formerly asbestos-exposed workers in Italy. Fifty-two Italian asbestos cohorts (asbestos-cement, rolling-stock, shipbuilding, and other) were pooled and their mortality follow-up was updated to 2018. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were computed for major causes of death considering duration of exposure and time since first exposure (TSFE), using reference rates by region, age and calendar period.Results The study included 63,502 subjects (57,156 men and 6346 women): 40% who were alive, 58% who died (cause known for 92%), and 2% lost to follow-up. Mortality was increased for all causes (SMR: men = 1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.05; women = 1.15, 95% CI 1.11-1.18), all malignancies (SMR: men = 1.21, 95% CI 1.18-1.23; women = 1.29, 95% CI 1.22-1.37), pleural and peritoneal malignancies (men: SMR = 10.46, 95% CI 9.86-11.09 and 4.29, 95% CI 3.66-5.00; women: SMR = 27.13, 95% CI 23.29-31.42 and 7.51, 95% CI 5.52-9.98), lung (SMR: men = 1.28, 95% CI 1.24-1.32; women = 1.26, 95% CI 1.02-1.53), and ovarian cancer (SMR = 1.42, 95% CI 1.08-1.84). Pleural cancer mortality increased during the first 40 years of TSFE (latency), reaching a plateau thereafter.Conclusions Analyses by time-dependent variables showed that the risk for pleural neoplasms increased with latency and no longer increases at long TSFE, consistent with with asbestos clearance from the lungs. Peritoneal neoplasm risk increased over all observation time

A survey of clinical features of allergic rhinitis in adults

Background: Allergic rhinitis (AR) has high prevalence and substantial socio-economic burden. Material/Methods: The study included 35 Italian Centers recruiting an overall number of 3383 adult patients with rhinitis (48% males, 52% females, mean age 29.1, range 18\u201345 years). For each patient, the attending physician had to fill in a standardized questionnaire, covering, in particular, some issues such as the ARIA classification of allergic rhinitis (AR), the results of skin prick test (SPT), the kind of treatment, the response to treatment, and the satisfaction with treatment. Results: Out of the 3383 patients with rhinitis, 2788 (82.4%) had AR: 311 (11.5%) had a mild intermittent, 229 (8.8%) a mild persistent, 636 (23.5%) a moderate-severe intermittent, and 1518 (56.1%) a moderate-severe persistent form. The most frequently used drugs were oral antihistamines (77.1%) and topical corticosteroids (60.8%). The response to treatment was judged as excellent in 12.2%, good in 41.3%, fair in 31.2%, poor in 14.5%, and very bad in 0.8% of subjects. The rate of treatment dissatisfaction was significantly higher in patients with moderate-to-severe AR than in patients with mild AR (p<0.0001). Indication to allergen immunotherapy (AIT) was significantly more frequent (p<0.01) in patients with severe AR than with mild AR. . Conclusions: These fndings confirm the appropriateness of ARIA guidelines in classifying the AR patients and the association of severe symptoms with unsuccessful drug treatment. The optimal targeting of patients to be treated with AIT needs to be reassessed

Utilizzo di tecniche respirometriche per la determinazione delle costanti stechiometriche e cinetiche di un processo a fanghi attivi

Viene descritto un lavoro sperimentale su impianto reale per valutare l'accettabilit\ue0 di un refluo industriale con alte concentrazioni di azoto organico a cui segue la determinazione dlle costanti stechiometriche di process