Predicting with sparse data

It is well known that effective prediction of project cost related factors is an important aspect of software engineering. Unfortunately, despite extensive research over more than 30 years, this remains a significant problem for many practitioners. A major obstacle is the absence of reliable and systematic historic data, yet this is a sine qua non for almost all proposed methods: statistical, machine learning or calibration of existing models. In this paper we describe our sparse data method (SDM) based upon a pairwise comparison technique and Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Our minimum data requirement is a single known point. The technique is supported by a software tool known as DataSalvage. We show, for data from two companies, how our approach — based upon expert judgement — adds value to expert judgement by producing significantly more accurate and less biased results. A sensitivity analysis shows that our approach is robust to pairwise comparison errors. We then describe the results of a small usability trial with a practising project manager. From this empirical work we conclude that the technique is promising and may help overcome some of the present barriers to effective project prediction

Software Defect Association Mining and Defect Correction Effort Prediction

Much current software defect prediction work concentrates on the number of defects remaining in software system. In this paper, we present association rule mining based methods to predict defect associations and defect-correction effort. This is to help developers detect software defects and assist project managers in allocating testing resources more effectively. We applied the proposed methods to the SEL defect data consisting of more than 200 projects over more than 15 years. The results show that for the defect association prediction, the accuracy is very high and the false negative rate is very low. Likewise for the defect-correction effort prediction, the accuracy for both defect isolation effort prediction and defect correction effort prediction are also high. We compared the defect-correction effort prediction method with other types of methods: PART, C4.5, and Na¨ıve Bayes and show that accuracy has been improved by at least 23%. We also evaluated the impact of support and confidence levels on prediction accuracy, false negative rate, false positive rate, and the number of rules. We found that higher support and confidence levels may not result in higher prediction accuracy, and a sufficient number of rules is a precondition for high prediction accuracy

Examining the relationship between pubertal stage, adolescent health behaviours and stress

Background. This paper examines the associations between puberty and three important health behavlours (smoking, food intake and exercise) and explores whether these associations are mediated by puberty's relationship to stress and psychological difficulties.Method. Data were taken from the first year of the ongoing, 5-year, Health and Behaviours in Teenagers Study (HABITS). This is a school-based study set in 36 schools in London. In the first year of the study, 4320 students (2578 boys, 1742 girls) in their first year of secondary education took part.Results. Among girls, being more pubertally advanced was associated with a greater likelihood of having tried smoking. Among boys, being more pubertally advanced was associated with a greater likelihood of having tried smoking, a higher intake of high-fat food and higher levels of exercise. More pubertally advanced girls experienced more stress but not more psychological difficulties. There were no associations between puberty and either stress or psychological difficulties in boys. Stress and psychological difficulties were associated with health behaviours in girls and boys, but neither of these factors mediated the relationship between pubertal stage and health behaviours found in girls.Conclusions. These results suggest that the onset of puberty has a marked effect on the development of health behaviours. Puberty was related to an acceleration of the development of unhealthy behaviours, except for exercise behaviour in boys, where advanced puberty was associated with more exercise. These changes were unrelated to adolescent issues of stress and a causal explanation for these associations must be sought elsewhere

Experimental techniques for ductile damage characterisation

Ductile damage in metallic materials is caused by the nucleation, growth and coalesce of voids and micro-cracks in the metal matrix when it is subjected to plastic strain. A considerable number of models have been proposed to represent ductile failure focusing on the ultimate failure conditions; however, only some of them study in detail the whole damage accumulation process. The aim of this work is to review experimental techniques developed by various authors to measure the accumulation of ductile damage under tensile loads. The measurement methods reviewed include: stiffness degradation, indentation, microstructure analysis, ultrasonic waves propagation, X-ray tomography and electrical potential drop. Stiffness degradation and indentation techniques have been tested on stainless steel 304L hourglass-shaped samples. A special interest is placed in the Continuum Damage Mechanics approach (CDM) as its equations incorporate macroscopic parameters that can represent directly the damage accumulation measured in the experiments. The other main objective lies in identifying the strengths and weaknesses of each technique for the assessment of materials subjected to different strain-rate and temperature conditions

The cuttlefish Sepia officinalis (Sepiidae, Cephalopoda) constructs cuttlebone from a liquid-crystal precursor

Cuttlebone, the sophisticated buoyancy device of cuttlefish, is made of extensive superposed chambers that have a complex internal arrangement of calcified pillars and organic membranes. It has not been clear how this structure is assembled. We find that the membranes result from a myriad of minor membranes initially filling the whole chamber, made of nanofibres evenly oriented within each membrane and slightly rotated with respect to those of adjacent membranes, producing a helical arrangement. We propose that the organism secretes a chitin-protein complex, which self-organizes layer-by-layer as a cholesteric liquid crystal, whereas the pillars are made by viscous fingering. The liquid crystallization mechanism permits us to homologize the elements of the cuttlebone with those of other coleoids and with the nacreous septa and the shells of nautiloids. These results challenge our view of this ultra-light natural material possessing desirable mechanical, structural and biological properties, suggesting that two self-organizing physical principles suffice to understand its formation.Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovacion [CGL2010-20748-CO2-01, CGL2013-48247-P, FIS2013-48444-C2-2-P]; Andalusian Consejeria de Innovacion Ciencia y Tecnologia [RNM6433]; (Sepiatech, PROMAR program) of the Portuguese Ministerio da Agricultura e do Mar, Portugal [31.03.05.FEP.002]; Junta de Andalucia [RNM363]; FP7 COST Action of the European Community. [TD0903]info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Rewilding of Protected Areas Enhances Resilience of Marine Ecosystems to Extreme Climatic Events

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are employed as tools to manage human impacts, especially fishing pressure. By excluding the most destructive activities MPAs can rewild degraded areas of seabed habitat. The potential for MPAs to increase ecosystem resilience from storms is, however, not understood, nor how such events impact seabed habitats. Extreme storm disturbance impact was studied in Lyme Bay MPA, Southwest United Kingdom, where the 2008 exclusion of bottom-towed fishing from the whole site allowed recovery of degraded temperate reef assemblages to a more complex community. Severe storm impacts in 2013–2014 resulted in major damage to the seabed so that assemblages in the MPA were more similar to sites where fishing continued than at any point since the designation of the MPA; the communities were not dominated by species resistant to physical disturbance. Nevertheless, annual surveys since 2014 have demonstrated that the initial recovery of MPA assemblages was much quicker than that seen following the cessation of chronic towed fishing impact in 2008. Likewise, General Additive Mixed Effect Models (GAMMs) showed that inside the MPA increases in diversity metrics post-Storm were greater and more consistent over time than post-Bottom-Towed Fishing. As extreme events are likely to become more common with climate change, wave exposure observations indicated that 29% of coastal reef MPAs around the United Kingdom may be exposed to comparable wave climate extremes, and may be similarly impacted. This paper therefore provides an insight into the likely extent and magnitude of ecological responses of seabed ecosystems to future extreme disturbance events.</jats:p

The restoration potential of offshore mussel farming on degraded seabed habitat

The United Kingdom's first large-scale, offshore, long-line mussel farm deployed its first ropes in 2013 in Lyme Bay, southwest United Kingdom, located in an area of seabed that was heavily degraded due to historic bottom-towed fishing. It was hypothesised that due to the artificial structures that accumulate mussels and exclude destructive fishing practices, the seabed could be restored. To assess the restoration potential of the farm and its ecosystem interactions over time, a multi-method, annual monitoring approach was undertaken. Here, we tested the effects of the farm trial stations on the seabed habitat, epifauna and demersal species over 5 years. Responses of % mussel cover, sessile and sedentary, and mobile taxa were measured using three video methods. Within 2 years of infrastructure deployment, mussel clumps and shells were detected below the headlines, increasing the structural complexity of the seabed. After 4 years, there was a significantly greater abundance of mobile taxa compared to the Controls that remained open to trawling. Commercial European lobster and edible crab were almost exclusively recorded within the farm. We discuss whether these findings can be considered a restoration of the seabed and how these data can be used to inform the future management of offshore mariculture globally

Electron excitation and energy transfer rates for H2O in the upper atmosphere

Recent measurements of the cross sections for electronic state excitations in H2O have made it possible to calculate rates applicable to these excitation processes. We thus present here calculations of electron energy transfer rates for electronic and vibrational state excitations in H2O, as well as rates for excitation of some of these states by atmospheric thermal and auroral secondary electrons. The calculation of these latter rates is an important first step towards our aim of including water into a statistical equilibrium model of the atmosphere under auroral conditions.Comment: 15 pages, 8 figure