Reconstructing transmission trees for communicable diseases using densely sampled genetic data.

Whole genome sequencing of pathogens from multiple hosts in an epidemic offers the potential to investigate who infected whom with unparalleled resolution, potentially yielding important insights into disease dynamics and the impact of control measures. We considered disease outbreaks in a setting with dense genomic sampling, and formulated stochastic epidemic models to investigate person-to-person transmission, based on observed genomic and epidemiological data. We constructed models in which the genetic distance between sampled genotypes depends on the epidemiological relationship between the hosts. A data augmented Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm was used to sample over the transmission trees, providing a posterior probability for any given transmission route. We investigated the predictive performance of our methodology using simulated data, demonstrating high sensitivity and specificity, particularly for rapidly mutating pathogens with low transmissibility. We then analyzed data collected during an outbreak of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in a hospital, identifying probable transmission routes and estimating epidemiological parameters. Our approach overcomes limitations of previous methods, providing a framework with the flexibility to allow for unobserved infection times, multiple independent introductions of the pathogen, and within-host genetic diversity, as well as allowing forward simulation.Funding received from the following: The European Community [Mastering Hospital Antimicrobial Resistance (MOSAR) network contract LSHP-CT-2007-037941]. The National Institute of General Medical Sciences of the National Institutes of Health under award number U54GM088558. The UK Medical Research Council (Unit Programme number U105260566). The UKCRC Translational Infection Research Initiative (MRC Grant number G1000803) and Public Health England. The Medical Research Council and Department for International Development (Grant number MR/K006924/1). The Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit is part of the Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme in SE Asia (Grant number 106698/Z/14/Z).This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from the Institute of Mathematical Statistics via http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/15-AOAS89

Duration of exposure to multiple antibiotics is associated with increased risk of VRE bacteraemia: a nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND: VRE bacteraemia has a high mortality and continues to defy control. Antibiotic risk factors for VRE bacteraemia have not been adequately defined. We aimed to determine the risk factors for VRE bacteraemia focusing on duration of antibiotic exposure. METHODS: A retrospective matched nested case-control study was conducted amongst hospitalized patients at Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (CUH) from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2012. Cases who developed a first episode of VRE bacteraemia were matched 1:1 to controls by length of stay, year, specialty and ward type. Independent risk factors for VRE bacteraemia were evaluated using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Two hundred and thirty-five cases were compared with 220 controls. Duration of exposure to parenteral vancomycin, fluoroquinolones and meropenem was independently associated with VRE bacteraemia. Compared with patients with no exposure to vancomycin, those who received courses of 1-3 days, 4-7 days or >7 days had a stepwise increase in risk of VRE bacteraemia [conditional OR (cOR) 1.2 (95% CI 0.4-3.8), 3.8 (95% CI 1.2-11.7) and 6.6 (95% CI 1.9-22.8), respectively]. Other risk factors were: presence of a central venous catheter (CVC) [cOR 8.7 (95% CI 2.6-29.5)]; neutropenia [cOR 15.5 (95% CI 4.2-57.0)]; hypoalbuminaemia [cOR 8.5 (95% CI 2.4-29.5)]; malignancy [cOR 4.4 (95% CI 1.6-12.0)]; gastrointestinal disease [cOR 12.4 (95% CI 4.2-36.8)]; and hepatobiliary disease [cOR 7.9 (95% CI 2.1-29.9)]. CONCLUSIONS: Longer exposure to vancomycin, fluoroquinolones or meropenem was associated with VRE bacteraemia. Antimicrobial stewardship interventions targeting high-risk antibiotics are required to complement infection control procedures against VRE bacteraemia

Duration of exposure to multiple antibiotics is associated with increased risk of VRE bacteraemia: a nested case-control study.

Background: VRE bacteraemia has a high mortality and continues to defy control. Antibiotic risk factors for VRE bacteraemia have not been adequately defined. We aimed to determine the risk factors for VRE bacteraemia focusing on duration of antibiotic exposure. Methods: A retrospective matched nested case-control study was conducted amongst hospitalized patients at Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (CUH) from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2012. Cases who developed a first episode of VRE bacteraemia were matched 1:1 to controls by length of stay, year, specialty and ward type. Independent risk factors for VRE bacteraemia were evaluated using conditional logistic regression. Results: Two hundred and thirty-five cases were compared with 220 controls. Duration of exposure to parenteral vancomycin, fluoroquinolones and meropenem was independently associated with VRE bacteraemia. Compared with patients with no exposure to vancomycin, those who received courses of 1-3 days, 4-7 days or >7 days had a stepwise increase in risk of VRE bacteraemia [conditional OR (cOR) 1.2 (95% CI 0.4-3.8), 3.8 (95% CI 1.2-11.7) and 6.6 (95% CI 1.9-22.8), respectively]. Other risk factors were: presence of a central venous catheter (CVC) [cOR 8.7 (95% CI 2.6-29.5)]; neutropenia [cOR 15.5 (95% CI 4.2-57.0)]; hypoalbuminaemia [cOR 8.5 (95% CI 2.4-29.5)]; malignancy [cOR 4.4 (95% CI 1.6-12.0)]; gastrointestinal disease [cOR 12.4 (95% CI 4.2-36.8)]; and hepatobiliary disease [cOR 7.9 (95% CI 2.1-29.9)]. Conclusions: Longer exposure to vancomycin, fluoroquinolones or meropenem was associated with VRE bacteraemia. Antimicrobial stewardship interventions targeting high-risk antibiotics are required to complement infection control procedures against VRE bacteraemia