Land Use Change: A Spatial Multinomial Choice Analysis

Urban decentralization and dispersion trends have led to increased conversion of rural lands in many urban peripheries and exurban regions of the U.S. The growth of the exurban areas has outpaced growth in urban and suburban areas, resulting in growth pressures at the urban-rural fringe. A thorough analysis of land use change patterns and the ability to predict these changes are necessary for the effective design of regional environmental, growth, and development policies. We estimate a multinomial discrete choice model with spatial dependence using parcel-level data from Medina County, Ohio. Accounting for spatial dependence should result in improved statistical inference about land use changes. Our spatial model extends the binary choice “linearized logit” model of Klier and McMillen (2008) to a multinomial setting. A small Monte Carlo simulation indicates that this estimator performs reasonably well. Preliminary results suggest that the location of new urban development is guided by a preference over lower density areas, yet in proximity to current urban development. In addition, we find significant evidence of spatial dependence in land use decisions.Land Use Change, Multinomial Logit, Spatial Dependence, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Land Economics/Use, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, R14, C21, C25,

Using Regression Discontinuity Design to Identify the Effect of Zoning

We test the effect of minimum lot zoning on rural-to-urban land use conversion using Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD), a technique that exploits natural discontinuities in the data to identify causal effects. Observations are drawn from either size of a discontinuous minimum lot size zoning boundary. Using these selected sub-samples, a binary discrete choice model of residential land use change is estimated using parcel-level data and other spatially explicit data from an exurban county that lies on the fringes of Cleveland, Ohio. Results show that controlling for unobserved correlation in the data clearly identifies a negative and significant effect of larger minimum lot size zoning on the probability of conversion to a residential use.Land Economics/Use,

Do Voluntary Pollution Reduction Programs (VPRs) Spur Innovation in Environmental Technology

In the context of the EPA's 33/50 program, we study whether a VPR can prompt firms to develop new environmental technologies that yield future emission reduction benefits. Because pollutant reductions generally require costly reformulations of products and/or production processes, environmental over-compliance induced by a VPR may potentially spur environmental innovation that can reduce these costs. Conversely, a VPR may induce a participating firm to divert resources from environmental research to environmental monitoring and compliance activities that yield short-term benefits in reduced emissions. We find evidence that higher rates of 33/50 program participation are associated with significant reductions in the number of successful environmental patent applications four to six years after the program ended; these results suggest a negative relationship between the 33/50 program and longer-run environmental innovation.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Environmental Innovation and Environmental Policy: An Empirical Test of Bi-Directional Effects

The purpose of this paper is to study the empirical strength of the bi-directional linkages between environmental standards and performance, on the one hand, and environmental innovation, on the other and, hence, the role of policy in spurring environmental R&D and, in turn, ultimate environmental performance. We study these links using an alternative measure of policy stringency, namely, pollutant emissions themselves. Specifically, we examine 107 manufacturing industries at the three-digit SIC code for the period 1989 - 2002. In view of the joint determination of research and pollution outcomes, we estimate a system of simultaneous equations, using appropriate instruments to identify each endogenous variable. Our empirical results reveal that there is a negative and significant relationship between emissions and environmental patents, in both directions. Thus, environmental R&D both spurs the tightening of government environmental standards and is spurred by the anticipation of such tightening, suggesting that U.S. environmental policy (at least in the context of the manufacturing industries that we study) has been responsive to innovation and effective in inducing innovation. Preliminary results also suggest that a linear feedback model is appropriate in order to capture the dynamic nature of the links between environmental policy and environmental innovation

Land Use Change: A Spatial Multinomial Choice Analysis

Urban decentralization and dispersion trends have led to increased conversion of rural lands in many urban peripheries and exurban regions of the U.S. The growth of the exurban areas has outpaced growth in urban and suburban areas, resulting in growth pressures at the urban-rural fringe. A thorough analysis of land use change patterns and the ability to predict these changes are necessary for the effective design of regional environmental, growth, and development policies. We estimate a multinomial discrete choice model with spatial dependence using parcel-level data from Medina County, Ohio. Accounting for spatial dependence should result in improved statistical inference about land use changes. Our spatial model extends the binary choice “linearized logit” model of Klier and McMillen (2008) to a multinomial setting. A small Monte Carlo simulation indicates that this estimator performs reasonably well. Preliminary results suggest that the location of new urban development is guided by a preference over lower density areas, yet in proximity to current urban development. In addition, we find significant evidence of spatial dependence in land use decisions

Using Regression Discontinuity Design to Identify the Effect of Zoning

We test the effect of minimum lot zoning on rural-to-urban land use conversion using Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD), a technique that exploits natural discontinuities in the data to identify causal effects. Observations are drawn from either size of a discontinuous minimum lot size zoning boundary. Using these selected sub-samples, a binary discrete choice model of residential land use change is estimated using parcel-level data and other spatially explicit data from an exurban county that lies on the fringes of Cleveland, Ohio. Results show that controlling for unobserved correlation in the data clearly identifies a negative and significant effect of larger minimum lot size zoning on the probability of conversion to a residential use

Do Voluntary Pollution Reduction Programs (VPRs) Spur Innovation in Environmental Technology

In the context of the EPA's 33/50 program, we study whether a VPR can prompt firms to develop new environmental technologies that yield future emission reduction benefits. Because pollutant reductions generally require costly reformulations of products and/or production processes, environmental over-compliance induced by a VPR may potentially spur environmental innovation that can reduce these costs. Conversely, a VPR may induce a participating firm to divert resources from environmental research to environmental monitoring and compliance activities that yield short-term benefits in reduced emissions. We find evidence that higher rates of 33/50 program participation are associated with significant reductions in the number of successful environmental patent applications four to six years after the program ended; these results suggest a negative relationship between the 33/50 program and longer-run environmental innovation