Comparison of multi-state Markov models for cancer progression with different procedures for parameters estimation. An application to breast cancer

Background: the knowledge of sojourn time (the duration of the preclinical screen-detectable period) and screening test sensitivity is crucial for understanding the disease progression and the effectiveness of screening programmes. For this purpose a model of the natural history of the disease is needed. The aim of this work is to provide an illustration of the application of multistate Markov models for breast cancer progression to the data of the Florentine screening programme, in order to estimate the sojourn time and sensitivity for breast cancer screening. Methods: three different multi-state Markov models of increasing complexity were used with three different estimation procedures based on non-linear least squares, maximum likelihood, and on a Bayesian approach. All the models produced estimates for screening sensitivity and mean sojourn time. The data used in our application seem to lead to a non-identifiability problem, since the estimation procedures for both the Maximum Likelihood and Non-Linear Least Squares gave estimates that changed with the parameters’ initial values or difficultly converged. In order to take this problem into account we used the Bayesian Approach by incorporating prior information on all the parameters. Results: the mean sojourn time varied between 2-7 years and 3-5 years for women aged 50-59 and 60-69, respectively. When the model complexity was increased a higher variability in estimates was observed among the estimation procedures. The results of the screening sensitivity estimates were highly variable, both among estimation techniques and models - varying between 63% and 100%, and between 77% and 100% for women aged 50-59 and 60-69, respectively. Conclusions: results are in accord with the literature; those obtained through the Bayesian Approach seem to be more reliable.&nbsp

Life gain in Italian smokers who quit

This study aims to estimate the number of life years gained with quitting smoking in Italian smokers of both sexes, by number of cigarettes smoked per day (cig/day) and age at cessation. All-cause mortality tables by age, sex and smoking status were computed, based on Italian smoking data, and the survival curves of former and current smokers were compared. The more cig/day a man/woman smokes, and the younger his/her age of quitting smoking, the more years of life he/she gains with cessation. In fact, cessation at age 30, 40, 50, or 60 years gained, respectively, about 7, 7, 6, or 5, and 5, 5, 4, or 3 years of life, respectively, for men and women that smoked 10-19 cig/day. The gain in life years was higher for heavy smokers (9 years for >20 cig/day) and lower for light smokers (4 years for 1-9 cig/day). Consistently with prospective studies conducted worldwide, quitting smoking increases life expectancy regardless of age, gender and number of cig/day. The estimates of the number of years of life that could be gained by quitting smoking, when computed specifically for a single smoker, could be used by physicians and health professionals to promote a quit attempt. © 2014 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland

Effects of a prevention program on multiple health-compromising behaviours in adolescence: A cluster randomized controlled trial.

We aimed to assess the effectiveness of 'Paesaggi di Prevenzione', a school-based prevention program delivered by trained teachers and designed to tackle smoking, alcohol misuse, dietary risks, and physical inactivity in adolescence. We evaluated the program between 2010 and 2013 with a two-arm, parallel-group, multicentre cluster randomized controlled trial in which schools were the units of randomization. We collected data on health-compromising behaviours using self-reported measurements of behaviour frequency administered before and after program implementation. We used multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression models to estimate program effects on health-compromising behaviours. The analysis sample included 3410 middle school students and 1651 high school students. Among middle school students, mean age at baseline was 12 years (standard deviation [SD] 0.5 years), 51% were boys, and 41% had high socioeconomic status [SES] (defined as having at least one parent/guardian with university level education). In high school students, mean age at baseline was 14 years (SD 0.7 years), 56% were boys, and 31% had high SES. The program did not have effects on smoking, alcohol misuse, and physical activity. The program had iatrogenic effects in regard to some eating behaviours, resulting in (i) lower odds of fruit consumption among middle-school students (odds ratio [OR] 0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.68-0.99) and (ii) lower odds of having breakfast every day in high-school students at the post-intervention measurement (OR 0.76; 95%CI 0.58-0.99) but not at one-year follow-up (OR 0.94; 95%CI 0.69-1.28). Due to the possibility of unintended effects, we advise against disseminating 'Paesaggi di Prevenzione' in its present form. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN00953701

Estimating Prognosis and Frailty in Persons Aged ≥75 Years in the Emergency Department: Further Validation of Dynamic Silver Code.

OBJECTIVES To assess concurrent validity of the Dynamic Silver Code (DSC), a tool based on administrative data that predicts prognosis in older adults accessing the emergency department (ED), in terms of association with markers of poor functional and cognitive status. DESIGN Cross-sectional. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS Data were obtained in the AIDEA study, which enrolled a cohort of ≥75-year-old patients, accessing the ED of 2 hospitals in Florence, Italy. METHODS The DSC score and classes (I to IV, corresponding to an increasing risk of death) were obtained from administrative data. Information on health and functional status prior to ED access were collected from face-to-face, direct, or proxy interviews. The 4AT test was administered to screen for possible delirium. Bivariate comparisons of the prevalence of each functional and cognitive marker across 4 DSC classes were performed. Multinomial logistic regression was used to assess the multivariable risk of being in II, III, or IV DSC class vs I. RESULTS Among 3358 participants (mean age 83 years, men 44%), 32.9%, 30.3%, 19.5%, and 17.2% were in DSC class I, II, III, and IV. Preadmission abnormal functional and cognitive conditions, and delirium in the ED, were increasingly more common from DSC class I through IV (P < .001). In particular, the prevalence of total inability to walk increased from 2.9% (class I) to 23.4% (class IV). In multivariable analyses, this was the strongest predictor of being in progressively worse DSC classes, whereas feeling of exhaustion, reporting of serious falls, weight loss, and severe memory loss or diagnosis of dementia gave some contribution. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS The ability of the DSC to predict survival in older persons appears to rely on its prevailing association with markers of functional impairment. These results may support clinical use of the tool

Burden of respiratory disease attributable to secondhand smoke exposure at home in children in Spain (2015)

This study aimed to estimate the number of incident cases and hospital admissions attributable to secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure at home for asthma, otitis media (OM), and lower respiratory infections (LRI) in children in Spain. The burden of respiratory disease caused by SHS exposure was estimated in terms of incident cases and hospitalized cases for asthma, OM, and LRI. Estimates were calculated using the population attributable fraction. The age-specific (0-1 year, 0-4 years, 5-11 years, and 0-11 years) prevalence of SHS exposure in children was estimated through a telephone survey performed in a representative sample of Spanish households with children in 2016. The risk estimates for all diseases were selected from international meta-analyses. The number of hospitalized cases was obtained for each disease from the Hospital Minimum Data Set provided by the Ministry of Health of Spain. Incident cases were obtained from the Global Health Data Exchange. In 2015, SHS exposure caused an estimated total of 136,403 incident cases of the following respiratory diseases: 9058 (8.5%) cases of asthma, 120,248 (8.5%) of OM, and 7097 (13.5%) of LRI in children aged 0-14 years old in Spain. Likewise, SHS exposure caused a total of 3028 hospitalized cases, with 379 (8.5%) for asthma and 167 (8.5%) for OM in children 0-11 years old, and 2482 (11.6%) for LRI in children <2 years old. The high burden of respiratory disease attributed to SHS exposure supports the need to improve protection of children against SHS exposure by extending smoke-free regulations to homes and cars

Burden of disease from breast cancer attributable to smoking and second‐hand smoke exposure in Europe

Smoking and second-hand smoke (SHS) exposure have been recently linked to a higher risk of breast cancer in women. The aim of this work is to estimate the number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from breast cancer attributable to these two risk factors in the European Union (EU-28) in 2017. The comparative risk assessment method was used. Data on prevalence of smoking and SHS exposure were extracted from the Eurobarometer surveys, relative risks from a recent meta-analysis, and data on mortality and DALYs from breast cancer were estimated from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors Study. In 2017, 82 239 DALYs and 3354 deaths from breast cancer in the EU-28 could have been avoided by removing exposure to these two risk factors (smoking and SHS exposure). The proportion of DALYs from breast cancer lost respectively from smoking and SHS exposure was 2.6% and 1.0%, although geographically distributed with significant heterogeneity. These results represent the first estimates of breast cancer burden in women attributable to smoking and SHS exposure for the EU-28. It is important to increase awareness among women, health professionals and wider society of the association between smoking, SHS exposure and breast cancer, a relationship that is not widely recognised or discussed

Who smokes in Europe? Data from 12 European countries in the TackSHS survey (2017-2018)

Background: Population data on tobacco use and its determinants require continuous monitoring and careful inter-country comparison. We aimed to provide the most up-to-date estimates on tobacco smoking from a large cross-sectional survey, conducted in selected European countries. Methods: Within the TackSHS Project, a face-to-face survey on smoking was conducted in 2017-2018 in 12 countries: Bulgaria, England, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Poland, Portugal, Romania and Spain, representing around 80% of the 432 million European Union (EU) adult population. In each country, a representative sample of around 1,000 subjects aged 15 years and older was interviewed, for a total of 11,902 participants. Results: Overall 25.9% of participants were current smokers (31.0% among men and 21.2% among women, pAdditional co-authors: Gergana Geshanova, Giuseppe Gorini, Sheila Keogan, Hristo Ivanov, Maria-José Lopez, Angel Lopez-Nicolas, José Precioso, Krzysztof Przewozniak, Cornel Radu-Loghin, Ario Ruprecht, Joan B Soriano, Polina Starchenko, Marta Trapero-Bertran, Olena Tigova, Anna S Tzortzi, Constantine Vardavas, Vergina K Vyzikidou, Paolo Colombo, Esteve Fernandez, The TackSHS Project Investigator

Measuring for change: A multi-centre pre-post trial of an air quality feedback intervention to promote smoke-free homes

Introduction Second-hand smoke exposure in the home is a serious cause of ill-health for children. Behaviour change interventions have been developed to encourage parents to keep homes smoke-free. This study evaluates a novel air quality feedback intervention using remote air quality monitoring with SMS and email messaging to promote smoke-free homes among families from deprived areas. Methods This paper presents a pre-post study of this intervention. Using internet connected monitors developed with the Dylos DC1700, daily SMS and weekly email feedback provided for 16 days to participants recruited in four European countries. Participants were recruited based on their stage of change, in order to target those most able to achieve smoke-free homes. The primary outcome measure was median change in mean fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration between baseline and follow-up periods, while secondary outcome measures included change in time over the World Health Organisation (WHO) guideline limit for PM2.5 exposure over 24 h (25 µg/m3) in those periods and the number of homes where PM2.5 concentrations reduced. Telephone interviews were conducted with participants in Scotland post-intervention to explore intervention experience and perceived effectiveness. Results Of 86 homes that completed the intervention study, 57 (66%) experienced pre-post reductions in measured PM2.5. The median reduction experienced was 4.1 µg/m3 (a reduction of 19% from baseline, p = 0.008). Eight homes where concentrations were higher than the WHO guideline limit at baseline fell below that level at follow-up. In follow-up interviews, participants expressed positive views on the usefulness of air quality feedback. Discussion Household air quality monitoring with SMS and email feedback can lead to behaviour change and consequent reductions in SHS in homes, but within the context of our study few homes became totally smoke-free

Burden of disease from exposure to secondhand smoke in children in Europe

Background Secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure at home and fetal SHS exposure during pregnancy are a major cause of disease among children. The aim of this study is quantifying the burden of disease due to SHS exposure in children and in pregnancy in 2006–2017 for the 28 European Union (EU) countries. Methods Exposure to SHS was estimated using a multiple imputation procedure based on the Eurobarometer surveys, and SHS exposure burden was estimated with the comparative risk assessment method using meta-analytical relative risks. Data on deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were collected from National statistics and from the Global Burden of Disease Study. Results Exposure to SHS and its attributable burden stalled in 2006–2017; in pregnant women, SHS exposure was 19.8% in 2006, 19.1% in 2010, and 21.0% in 2017; in children it was 10.1% in 2006, 9.6% in 2010, and 12.1% in 2017. In 2017, 35,633 DALYs among children were attributable to SHS exposure in the EU, mainly due to low birth weight. Conclusions Comprehensive smoking bans up to 2010 contributed to reduce SHS exposure and its burden in children immediately after their implementation; however, SHS exposure still occurs, and in 2017, its burden in children was still relevant