Cumulative dominance and heuristic performance in binary multi-attribute choice

Working paper 895, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu FabraSeveral studies have reported high performance of simple decision heuristics in multi-attribute decision making. In this paper, we focus on situations where attributes are binary and analyze the performance of Deterministic-Elimination-By-Aspects (DEBA) and similar decision heuristics. We consider non-increasing weights and two probabilistic models for the attribute values: one where attribute values are independent Bernoulli randomvariables; the other one where they are binary random variables with inter-attribute positive correlations. Using these models, we show that good performance of DEBA is explained by the presence of cumulative as opposed to simple dominance. We therefore introduce the concepts of cumulative dominance compliance and fully cumulative dominance compliance and show that DEBA satisfies those properties. We derive a lower bound with which cumulative dominance compliant heuristics will choose a best alternative and show that, even with many attributes, this is not small. We also derive an upper bound for the expected loss of fully cumulative compliance heuristics and show that this is moderate even when the number of attributes is large. Both bounds are independent of the values of the weights.Postprint (author’s final draft

Menopausia, el inicio del envejecimiento de las mujeres chilenas. Un estudio cualitativo

Indexación: Scopus.Objective. To develop the meaning of menopause of a group of post-menopausal women and their relationship with aging. Methods. Qualitative descriptive study on 15 Chilean women that completed a taped face-to-face in depth interview that were interpreted according to Krippendorff. Results. A qualitative content analysis revealed the presence of two themes: (a) Cessation of women's reproductive stage and (b) a life transition to aging. Conclusion. Women perceived their menopause as the beginning of aging focusing on the end of fertility and the social connotation that this new role implies. Feeling old 10 years before the customary beginning of old age is an important starting point to be incorporated in women's health education.http://ref.scielo.org/x7bfh

Behavior Problems in Toddlers With and Without Developmental Delays: Comparison of Treatment Outcomes

The purpose of this study is to examine the effectiveness of an in-home parent management program for toddlers with behavior problems and developmental delays by comparing outcomes for a group of toddlers with developmental delays (n = 27) and a group of toddlers without developmental delays (n = 27). The majority of children lived in single parent, low-income homes. Results suggest that the parent management program is equally effective for children with and without developmental delays. Parents from both groups reported clinically significant improvement in their children\u27s behavior and parenting practices. Clinical implications regarding the importance of these findings for improving outcomes for toddlers with behavior problems and developmental delays living in poverty were discussed

Level and length of cyclic solar activity during the Maunder minimum as deduced from the active day statistics

The Maunder minimum (MM) of greatly reduced solar activity took place in 1645-1715, but the exact level of sunspot activity is uncertain as based, to a large extent, on historical generic statements of the absence of spots on the Sun. Here we aim, using a conservative approach, to assess the level and length of solar cycle during the Maunder minimum, on the basis of direct historical records by astronomers of that time. A database of the active and inactive days (days with and without recorded sunspots on the solar disc respectively) is constructed for three models of different levels of conservatism (loose ML, optimum MO and strict MS models) regarding generic no-spot records. We have used the active day fraction to estimate the group sunspot number during the MM. A clear cyclic variability is found throughout the MM with peaks at around 1655--1657, 1675, 1684 and 1705, and possibly 1666, with the active day fraction not exceeding 0.2, 0.3 or 0.4 during the core MM, for the three models. Estimated sunspot numbers are found very low in accordance with a grand minimum of solar activity. We have found, for the core MM (1650-1700), that: (1) A large fraction of no-spot records, corresponding to the solar meridian observations, may be unreliable in the conventional database. (2) The active day fraction remained low (below 0.3-0.4) throughout the MM, indicating the low level of sunspot activity. (3) The solar cycle appears clearly during the core MM. (4) The length of the solar cycle during the core MM appears $9\pm 1$ years, but there is an uncertainty in that. (5) The magnitude of the sunspot cycle during MM is assessed to be below 5-10 in sunspot numbers; A hypothesis of the high solar cycles during the MM is not confirmed.Comment: Accepted to Astron. Astrophy

Tight upper bounds for the expected loss of lexicographic heuristics in binary multiattribute choice

Tight upper bounds for the expected loss of the DEBA (Deterministic-Elimination-By-Aspects) lexicographic selection heuristic are obtained for the case of an additive separable utility function with unknown non-negative, non-increasing attribute weights for numbers of alternatives and attributes as large as 10 under two probabilistic models: one in which attributes are assumed to be independent Bernouilli random variables and another one with positive inter-attribute correlation. The upper bounds improve substantially previous bounds and extend significantly the cases in which a good performance of DEBA can be guaranteed under the assumed cognitive limitations.Postprint (published version