Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting

LONG-TERM GOALS: The long-term goals of this project, which is being pursued in collaboration with R. L. Elsberry and M. A. Boothe, are to improve not only the quantitative accuracy of official tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts, but also the qualitative meteorological utility of those forecasts. Needed improve- ments in the accuracy of official TC track forecasts include: (i) reducing the severity and frequency of major track forecast "busts" for which the track forecast error at a particular time exceeds seasonal averages by a factor of two or more; (ii) widening the margin by which on average the official TC track forecast improves upon available numerical and other objective TC track forecast guidance; and (iii) better temporal consistency (i.e., watch-to-watch) of official TC track forecasts. Meteorological utility refers to the interpretative usefulness imparted (value added) to the official forecast track by the TC forecaster's formulation and articulation in narrative form of the meteorological reasoning behind the forecast, and should include a situation-specific assessment of the likely uncertainty in the forecast, and the range/probability of alternate scenarios that may be realized. Such reasoning often critically influences recommendations and decisions made by meteorologists and authorities responsible for TC-threatened areas. The long-term goal in this regard is to equip TC forecasters with the conceptual tools necessary to impart a high degree of meteorological utility to each forecast within the constraints of the current state of the science.Award # N0001497WR3002

Development of an Expert System Based on the Systematic approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting

Long Term Goals: The long-term goals of this project, which is being pursued in collaboration with R. L. Elsberry and M. A. Boothe, are essentially the same as those for the related project entitled "Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting" summarized elsewhere in this report. Those stated goals are to improve not only the quantitative accuracy of official tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts, but also the qualitative meteorological utility of those forecasts. Whereas the focus of the related project is to conduct basic research to develop the methodological framework and organized knowledge bases (i.e., of TC meteorology and TC forecast model traits) necessary to eventually accomplish the long-term goals, the focus here is to take results from that project and transform them into a prototype software tool that will, when fully implemented, enable the TC forecaster to actually accomplish the long-term goals.Award # N0001497WR3001

Development of an Expert System Based on the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting

LONG-TERM GOALS: The long-term goals of this project are to improve the quantitative accuracy and interpretative utility of official tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts by enabling forecasters to successfully recognize and skillfully compensate for periods when numerical TC track forecast models are likely to be making highly erroneous track forecasts. The conceptual methodology for accomplishing these goals is the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting (hereafter Systematic Approach) conceived by Carr and Elsberry (1994).Award # N0001499WR3004

Condensed and Updated Version of the Systematic Approach Meteorological Knowledge Base Southern Hemisphere

The meteorological knowledge base for the Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting proposed by Carr and Elsberry has evolved as additional research has been completed. As this Systematic Approach has been applied in the Southern Hemisphere, a number of conceptual models have been refined and new terminology has been adopted to reflect global applicability. As a knowledge-based expert system is being developed, it was convenient to condense and update the meteorological knowledge base for the Southern Hemisphere. Thus, the material is presented with text on the left page and the corresponding figure on the facing page as it will appear on the computer screen.Prepared for: Office of Naval Research, Code 322MM, Arlington, VA 22217 SPAWARSYSCOM, Code PMW 185, San Diego, CA 92110http://archive.org/details/condensedupdated00carrSponsored by: Office of Naval Research and SPAWARSYSCOM.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Antiinflammatory Therapy with Canakinumab for Atherosclerotic Disease

Background: Experimental and clinical data suggest that reducing inflammation without affecting lipid levels may reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. Yet, the inflammatory hypothesis of atherothrombosis has remained unproved. Methods: We conducted a randomized, double-blind trial of canakinumab, a therapeutic monoclonal antibody targeting interleukin-1β, involving 10,061 patients with previous myocardial infarction and a high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level of 2 mg or more per liter. The trial compared three doses of canakinumab (50 mg, 150 mg, and 300 mg, administered subcutaneously every 3 months) with placebo. The primary efficacy end point was nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death. RESULTS: At 48 months, the median reduction from baseline in the high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level was 26 percentage points greater in the group that received the 50-mg dose of canakinumab, 37 percentage points greater in the 150-mg group, and 41 percentage points greater in the 300-mg group than in the placebo group. Canakinumab did not reduce lipid levels from baseline. At a median follow-up of 3.7 years, the incidence rate for the primary end point was 4.50 events per 100 person-years in the placebo group, 4.11 events per 100 person-years in the 50-mg group, 3.86 events per 100 person-years in the 150-mg group, and 3.90 events per 100 person-years in the 300-mg group. The hazard ratios as compared with placebo were as follows: in the 50-mg group, 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 1.07; P = 0.30); in the 150-mg group, 0.85 (95% CI, 0.74 to 0.98; P = 0.021); and in the 300-mg group, 0.86 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.99; P = 0.031). The 150-mg dose, but not the other doses, met the prespecified multiplicity-adjusted threshold for statistical significance for the primary end point and the secondary end point that additionally included hospitalization for unstable angina that led to urgent revascularization (hazard ratio vs. placebo, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.95; P = 0.005). Canakinumab was associated with a higher incidence of fatal infection than was placebo. There was no significant difference in all-cause mortality (hazard ratio for all canakinumab doses vs. placebo, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.06; P = 0.31). Conclusions: Antiinflammatory therapy targeting the interleukin-1β innate immunity pathway with canakinumab at a dose of 150 mg every 3 months led to a significantly lower rate of recurrent cardiovascular events than placebo, independent of lipid-level lowering. (Funded by Novartis; CANTOS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01327846.

Resume of Lester E. Carr Iii, 1993-08

Naval Postgraduate School Faculty Resum

Atlantic application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting. Part I environmental structure characteristics

The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense.This Meteorological knowledge base for application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in the Atlantic basin follows from similar knowledge bases previously developed for the western North Pacific, the eastern and central North Pacific, and the Southern Hemisphere. A common environment structure terminology has been adopted in which three synoptic patterns (Standard, Poleward, and Midlatitude) are found in each of these basins. Each basin also has a special pattern, which in the Atlantic is the Upper-level low. The conceptual models for these synoptic patterns with their associated synoptic regions are described here via a conceptual model, analysis examples, and the characteristic track segments within each region. A climatology of occurrences in each patter/region for the 1568 cases during 1990- 98 is prepared. The second key element in the knowledge base is the transitional mechanisms that change the environment structure and thus change the tropical cyclone steering flow. Conceptual models for these mechanisms are presented and illustrated with sequences of analyses. A climatology of recurring (at least four occurrences in nine years) transitions is prepared to indicate the most common track changes during these transitions.Prepared for: SPAWARSYSCOM (Space and Naval Warfare Systems Command) Code PMW 185, San Diego, CA 92110-3127Funding number: CNS-0430566.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Condensed and Updated Version of the Systematic Approach Meteorological Knowledge Base Western North Pacific

The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense.The meteorological knowledge base for the Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cydone Track Forecasting proposed by Carr and Elsberry has evolved as additional research has been completed. This Systematic Approach has been applied in the eastern and central North Pacific, and in the Southern Hemisphere, a number of conceptual models have been refined and new terminology has been adopted to reflect global applicability. As a knowledge based expert system is being developed, it was convenient to condense and update the meteorological knowledge base for the western North Pacific. Thus, the material is presented with text on the left page and the corresponding figure on the facing page as it will appear on the computer screen.Prepared for: the Joint Typhoon Warning Center at the Naval Pacific Meterology and Oceanography Center. Office of Naval Research Marine Meterology Program, Arlington, VA.N0001498WR30011Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting. Part III : updated environmental structure characteristics

The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense.The Meteorological knowledge base of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting in the Southern Hemisphere has been updated to reflect a more global terminology. Examples of these new environment structures in operational (NOGAPS) analyses and tracks are given. Perhaps the most important conclusion is that all cases in the 1990-91 through 1998-1999 seasons could be classified into one of these 14 synoptic pattern/region combinations. The nine-year "climatology" of the occurrences of each ofthe 14 combinations is given for the South Indian and Pacific Oceans separately, and the characteristic tracks in each of these 14 combinations are provided. Some new transitional mechanisms between these combinations have also been defined. The importance of these transitions from one pattern/region combinations to another is that the TC track then also changes. The frequency of recurring (greater than three) transitions in this nine-year sample is summarized. Because the TC is at any time in only one pattern/region combination, the concern of the forecaster is on the possible transitions from that pattern/region. To assist the forecaster, the percentages of these transitions from each pattern/region combination are also summarized. Some ofthese transitions are clearly more favored than others, which is useful guidance to the forecaster.Prepared for: SPAWARSYSCOM (Space and Naval Warfare Systems Command)Code PMW 185, San Diego, CA 92110-3127N0003900WRDF203Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting. Part I: Environmental Structure Characteristics

The environment structure conceptual models of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting technique of Carr and Elsberry are applied to all Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones during January 1994 - June 1997. Whereas three of the four synoptic patterns from the western North Pacific could be applied with relatively small modifications, a new High (H) amplitude synoptic pattern was defined to classify the situations with large meridional penetrations of mid-latitude troughs deep into the Southern Hemisphere tropics. Some changes in terminology were required to describe the synoptic regions that have characteristic track directions. All 1592 cases during the period could be described by these four synoptic patterns and 11 synoptic regions. Important track changes were found to be associated with transitions between these synoptic patterns and regions. Three binary tropical cyclone interactions defined for the Western North Pacific were adapted for use in the Southern Hemisphere with considerable success. A preliminary climatology of occurrences for the synoptic pattern/region combinations, ions, transitions between combinations, and binary tropical cyclone interactions are calculated. Sequences of synoptic analyses related to these transitions are described to aid in theapplication.Prepared for: Space and Naval Warfare Systems Command, PMW 185 San Diego, CA 92110-3127Contract number: M92367