Climate Services and Transformational Adaptation

The Working Group II contribution to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report states that effective adaptation to the changing climate will require transformational changes in how people live. This article explores the potential for climate services to catalyze and foster transformational adaptation. I argue that weather and climate information are not, in and of themselves, tools for transformation. When designed and delivered without careful identification of the intended users of the service and the needs that service addresses, they can fail to catalyze change amongst the users of that information. At worst, they can reinforce the status quo and drive maladaptive outcomes. For climate services to serve as agents of transformational adaptation, the climate services community will have to change how it understands the users of these services and their needs. Building climate services around contemporary understandings of how people make decisions about their lives and livelihoods offers designers and implementers of climate services opportunities to create services that catalyze transformational adaptation. These opportunities provide examples for the wider field of adaptation to consider in its efforts to contribute to climate resilient development

Who Should be Interviewed in Surveys of Household Income?

This study tests the null hypothesis that it is sufficient to interview only the household head to obtain accurate information on household income. Results show that using a husband’s estimate of his wife’s income does not produce statistically reliable results for poverty analysis. Estimates of the wife’s income provided by the husband and wife are in agreement in only six percent of households. While limiting interviews to one person has the advantage of reducing the time and expense of household surveys, this appears detrimental in terms of accuracy, and may lead to incorrect conclusions on the determinants of poverty.Africa, gender, household dynamics, household surveys, Malawi, poverty, Agricultural Finance,

Sediment Quality in Puget Sound Year 3 - Southern Puget Sound

As a component of a three-year cooperative effort of the Washington State Department of Ecology and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, surficial sediment samples from 100 locations in southern Puget Sound were collected in 1999 to determine their relative quality based on measures of toxicity, chemical contamination, and benthic infaunal assemblage structure. The survey encompassed an area of approximately 858 km2, ranging from East and Colvos Passages south to Oakland Bay, and including Hood Canal. Toxic responses were most severe in some of the industrialized waterways of Tacoma’s Commencement Bay. Other industrialized harbors in which sediments induced toxic responses on smaller scales included the Port of Olympia, Oakland Bay at Shelton, Gig Harbor, Port Ludlow, and Port Gamble. Based on the methods selected for this survey, the spatial extent of toxicity for the southern Puget Sound survey area was 0% of the total survey area for amphipod survival, 5.7% for urchin fertilization, 0.2% for microbial bioluminescence, and 5- 38% with the cytochrome P450 HRGS assay. Measurements of trace metals, PAHs, PCBs, chlorinated pesticides, other organic chemicals, and other characteristics of the sediments, indicated that 20 of the 100 samples collected had one or more chemical concentrations that exceeded applicable, effects-based sediment guidelines and/or Washington State standards. Chemical contamination was highest in eight samples collected in or near the industrialized waterways of Commencement Bay. Samples from the Thea Foss and Middle Waterways were primarily contaminated with a mixture of PAHs and trace metals, whereas those from Hylebos Waterway were contaminated with chlorinated organic hydrocarbons. The remaining 12 samples with elevated chemical concentrations primarily had high levels of other chemicals, including bis(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate, benzoic acid, benzyl alcohol, and phenol. The characteristics of benthic infaunal assemblages in south Puget Sound differed considerably among locations and habitat types throughout the study area. In general, many of the small embayments and inlets throughout the study area had infaunal assemblages with relatively low total abundance, taxa richness, evenness, and dominance values, although total abundance values were very high in some cases, typically due to high abundance of one organism such as the polychaete Aphelochaeta sp. N1. The majority of the samples collected from passages, outer embayments, and larger bodies of water tended to have infaunal assemblages with higher total abundance, taxa richness, evenness, and dominance values. Two samples collected in the Port of Olympia near a superfund cleanup site had no living organisms in them. A weight-of-evidence approach used to simultaneously examine all three “sediment quality triad” parameters, identified 11 stations (representing 4.4 km2, 0.5% of the total study area) with sediment toxicity, chemical contamination, and altered benthos (i.e., degraded sediment quality), 36 stations (493.5 km2, 57.5% total study area) with no toxicity or chemical contamination (i.e., high sediment quality), 35 stations (274.1 km2, 32.0% total study area) with one impaired sediment triad parameter (i.e., intermediate/high sediment quality), and 18 stations (85.7km2, 10.0% total study area) with two impaired sediment parameters (i.e., intermediate/degraded quality sediments). Generally, upon comparison, the number of stations with degraded sediments based upon the sediment quality triad of data was slightly greater in the central Puget Sound than in the northern and southern Puget Sound study areas, with the percent of the total study area degraded in each region decreasing from central to north to south (2.8, 1.3 and 0.5%, respectively). Overall, the sediments collected in Puget Sound during the combined 1997-1999 surveys were among the least contaminated relative to other marine bays and estuaries studied by NOAA using equivalent methods. (PDF contains 351 pages

Modeling the economic value of carbon sequestration by wetlands in the Delaware Estuary : historic estimates and future projections

© The Author(s), 2017. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here under a nonexclusive, irrevocable, paid-up, worldwide license granted to WHOI. It is made available for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Environmental Management 206 (2018): 40-50, doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.10.018.Coastal wetlands sequester large amounts of carbon in their soils, effectively removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and acting as a carbon sink. In this paper, we estimate the economic value of carbon sequestered by wetlands in the Delaware Estuary. We estimate the value of the current stock of wetlands, the value of the historic loss of wetlands, and under a range of different scenarios the expected future loss. We use historical topographic maps and Land Cover inventories of the Delaware Estuary to measure the acreage of tidal wetlands in nine distinct time periods from 1778 to 2011. Using these data, we estimate an annual rate of wetland loss of 1.03km2. Coupling observed land cover change with exogenous factors including sea-level rise, population pressure, and channel dredging, we estimate changes in tidal wetland area under a range of future scenarios for our expected future economic loss estimates.This research is supported by NSF Coastal SEES Grant No. 1325136

Salinity intrusion in a modified river-estuary system: an integrated modeling framework for source-to-sea management

© The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Hoagland, P., Beet, A., Ralston, D., Parsons, G., Shirazi, Y., & Carr, E. Salinity intrusion in a modified river-estuary system: an integrated modeling framework for source-to-sea management. Frontiers in Marine Science, 7, (2020): 425, doi:10.3389/fmars.2020.00425.Along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts, port authorities and governments have been competing for access to federal funds to deepen the channels and berths in each of the major estuary-based harbors, thereby facilitating access by larger containerships. Consistent with a source-to-sea conceptualization, physical modifications of an estuary can result in dynamic changes to its water and sediment flows, resulting in new arrangements of environmental features. These modifications, in turn, can lead to redistributions of the net benefits arising from extant flows of valued ecosystem services to stakeholders and communities in the broader river-estuary system. Here, some of the implications of channel deepening in the Hudson river-estuary system were examined as a case study. An integrated analytical framework was developed, comprising hydrodynamic models of water flows and environmental characteristics, especially salinity; extreme value estimates of the occurrence of regional droughts; and assessments of the welfare effects of changes in ecosystem services. Connections were found among channel deepening in the lower estuary, increased risks to fluvial drinking water withdrawals in the upper estuary, and expected economic losses to hydropower generation in the upper river. The results argue for a more inclusive consideration of the consequences of human modifications of river-estuary systems.This work was sponsored by NSF Coastal SEES Grant No. 1325136

Survey of sediment quality in Sabine Lake, Texas and vicinity

The toxicity of sediments in Sabine Lake, Texas, and adjoining Intracoastal Waterway canals was determined as part of bioeffects assessment studies managed by NOAA’s National Status and Trends Program. The objectives of the survey were to determine: (1) the incidence and degree of toxicity of sediments throughout the study area; (2) the spatial patterns (or gradients) in chemical contamination and toxicity, if any, throughout the study area; (3) the spatial extent of chemical contamination and toxicity; and (4) the statistical relationships between measures of toxicity and concentrations of chemicals in the sediments. Surficial sediment samples were collected during August, 1995 from 66 randomly-chosen locations. Laboratory toxicity tests were performed as indicators of potential ecotoxicological effects in sediments. A battery of tests was performed to generate information from different phases (components) of the sediments. Tests were selected to represent a range in toxicological endpoints from acute to chronic sublethal responses. Toxicological tests were conducted to measure: reduced survival of adult amphipods exposed to solid-phase sediments; impaired fertilization success and abnormal morphological development in gametes and embryos, respectively, of sea urchins exposed to pore waters; reduced metabolic activity of a marine bioluminescent bacteria exposed to organic solvent extracts; and induction of a cytochrome P-450 reporter gene system in exposures to solvent extracts of the sediments. Chemical analyses were performed on portions of each sample to quantify the concentrations of trace metals, polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons, and chlorinated organic compounds. Correlation analyses were conducted to determine the relationships between measures of toxicity and concentrations of potentially toxic substances in the samples. Based upon the compilation of results from chemical analyses and toxicity tests, the quality of sediments in Sabine Lake and vicinity did not appear to be severely degraded. Chemical concentrations rarely exceeded effects-based numerical guidelines, suggesting that toxicant-induced effects would not be expected in most areas. None of the samples was highly toxic in acute amphipod survival tests and a minority (23%) of samples were highly toxic in sublethal urchin fertilization tests. Although toxic responses occurred frequently (94% of samples) in urchin embryo development tests performed with 100% pore waters, toxicity diminished markedly in tests done with diluted pore waters. Microbial bioluminescent activity was not reduced to a great degree (no EC50 <0.06 mg/ml) and cytochrome P-450 activity was not highly induced (6 samples exceeded 37.1 ug/g benzo[a]pyrene equivalents) in tests done with organic solvent extracts. Urchin embryological development was highly correlated with concentrations of ammonia and many trace metals. Cytochrome P450 induction was highly correlated with concentrations of a number of classes of organic compounds (including the polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons and chlorinated compounds). (PDF contains 51 pages

Contrasting genetic association of IL2RA with SLE and ANCA-associated vasculitis.

BACKGROUND: Autoimmune diseases are complex and have genetic and environmental susceptibility factors. The objective was to test the genetic association of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA) - associated systemic vasculitis (AAV) with SNPs in the IL2RA region and to correlate genotype with serum levels of IL-2RA. METHODS: Using a cohort of over 700 AAV patients, two SLE case-control studies and an SLE trio collection (totalling over 1000 SLE patients), and a TaqMan genotyping approach, we tested 3 SNPs in the IL2RA locus, rs11594656, rs2104286 & rs41295061, each with a prior association with autoimmune disease; rs11594656 and rs41295061 with type 1 diabetes (T1D) and rs2104286 with multiple sclerosis (MS) and T1D. RESULTS: We show that SLE is associated with rs11594656 (P = 3.87 x 10-7) and there is some evidence of association of rs41295061 with AAV (P = 0.0122), which both have prior association with T1D. rs2104286, an MS and T1D - associated SNP in the IL2RA locus, is not associated with either SLE or AAV. CONCLUSION: We have confirmed a previous suggestion that the IL2RA locus is associated with SLE and showed some evidence of association with AAV. Soluble IL-2RA concentrations correlate with rs11594656 genotype in quiescent disease in both AAV and SLE. Differential association of autoimmune diseases and SNPs within the IL2RA locus suggests that the IL2RA pathway may prove to play differing, as yet undefined, roles in each disease

The migration-sustainability paradox: transformations in mobile worlds

This is the final version. Available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record. Migration represents a major transformation of the lives of those involved and has been transformative of societies and economies globally. Yet models of sustainability transformations do not effectively incorporate the movement of populations. There is an apparent migration-sustainability paradox: migration plays a role as a driver of unsustainability as part of economic globalisation, yet simultaneously represents a transformative phenomenon and potential force for sustainable development. We propose criteria by which migration represents an opportunity for sustainable development: increasing aggregate well-being; reduced inequality leading to diverse social benefits; and reduced aggregate environmental burden. We detail the dimensions of the transformative potential of migration and develop a generic framework for migration-sustainability linkages based on environmental, social, and economic dimensions of sustainability, highlighting identity and social transformation dimensions of migration. Such a model overcomes the apparent paradox by explaining the role of societal mobility in achieving sustainable outcomes.Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)European Research CouncilUniversity of Exeter European Network Fun

The Migration-Sustainability Paradox: Transformations in Mobile Worlds

Migration represents a major transformation of the lives of those involved and has been transformative of societies and economies globally. Yet models of sustainability transformations do not effectively incorporate the movement of populations. There is an apparent migration-sustainability paradox: migration plays a role as a driver of unsustainability as part of economic globalisation, yet simultaneously represents a transformative phenomenon and potential force for sustainable development. We propose criteria by which migration represents an opportunity for sustainable development: increasing aggregate well-being; reduced inequality leading to diverse social benefits; and reduced aggregate environmental burden. We detail the dimensions of the transformative potential of migration and develop a generic framework for migration-sustainability linkages based on environmental, social, and economic dimensions of sustainability, highlighting identity and social transformation dimensions of migration. Such a model overcomes the apparent paradox by explaining the role of societal mobility in achieving sustainable outcomes