Detecting early-warning signals for sudden deterioration of complex diseases by dynamical network biomarkers

Considerable evidence suggests that during the progression of complex diseases, the deteriorations are not necessarily smooth but are abrupt, and may cause a critical transition from one state to another at a tipping point. Here, we develop a model-free method to detect early-warning signals of such critical transitions, even with only a small number of samples. Specifically, we theoretically derive an index based on a dynamical network biomarker (DNB) that serves as a general early-warning signal indicating an imminent bifurcation or sudden deterioration before the critical transition occurs. Based on theoretical analyses, we show that predicting a sudden transition from small samples is achievable provided that there are a large number of measurements for each sample, e.g., high-throughput data. We employ microarray data of three diseases to demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. The relevance of DNBs with the diseases was also validated by related experimental data and functional analysis

Case study on the efficacy of a lanthanum-enriched clay (Phoslock®) in controlling eutrophication in Lake Het Groene Eiland (The Netherlands)

Lake Het Groene Eiland was created in the beginning of 2008 by construction of dikes for isolating it from the surrounding 220-ha water body. This so-called claustrum of 5 ha was treated using lanthanum-modified clay (Phoslock®) to control eutrophication and mitigate cyanobacterial nuisance. Cyanobacteria chlorophyll-a were significantly lower in the claustrum than those in the reference water body, where a massive bloom developed in summer, 2008. However, PO4-P and TP did not statistically differ in these two waters. TN and NO3-N were significantly lower in the claustrum, where dense submerged macrophytes beds developed. Lanthanum concentrations were elevated after the applications of the modified clay in the claustrum, but filterable lanthanum dropped rapidly below the Dutch standard of 10.1 μg l−1. During winter, dozens of Canada geese resided at the claustrum. Geese droppings contained an average of 2 mg PO4-P g−1 dry weight and 12 mg NH3-N g−1 dry weight and might present a growing source of nutrients to the water. Constructing the claustrum enabled unrestricted bathing in subsequent three summers, as no swimming bans had to be issued due to cyanobacteria blooms. However, the role of the modified clay in this positive outcome remains unclear, and longevity of the measures questionable.

Initial fixation placement in face images is driven by top-down guidance

The eyes are often inspected first and for longer period during face exploration. To examine whether this saliency of the eye region at the early stage of face inspection is attributed to its local structure properties or to the knowledge of its essence in facial communication, in this study we investigated the pattern of eye movements produced by rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta) as they free viewed images of monkey faces. Eye positions were recorded accurately using implanted eye coils, while images of original faces, faces with scrambled eyes, and scrambled faces except for the eyes were presented on a computer screen. The eye region in the scrambled faces attracted the same proportion of viewing time and fixations as it did in the original faces, even the scrambled eyes attracted substantial proportion of viewing time and fixations. Furthermore, the monkeys often made the first saccade towards to the location of the eyes regardless of image content. Our results suggest that the initial fixation placement in faces is driven predominantly by ‘top-down’ or internal factors, such as the prior knowledge of the location of “eyes” within the context of a face

Early Warning Signals for Critical Transitions: A Generalized Modeling Approach

Critical transitions are sudden, often irreversible, changes that can occur in a large variety of complex systems; signals that warn of critical transitions are therefore highly desirable. We propose a new method for early warning signals that integrates multiple sources of information and data about the system through the framework of a generalized model. We demonstrate our proposed approach through several examples, including a previously published fisheries model. We regard our method as complementary to existing early warning signals, taking an approach of intermediate complexity between model-free approaches and fully parameterized simulations. One potential advantage of our approach is that, under appropriate conditions, it may reduce the amount of time series data required for a robust early warning signal

Efficacy of a Topical Formulation Containing Emodepside and Praziquantel (Profender®, Bayer) against Nematodes in Captive Tortoises

Gastrointestinal parasites are commonly diagnosed in captive tortoises. In response, fenbendazole has traditionally been used as an anthelmintic, either in single or repeated doses. However, fenbendazole requires oral administration and the process can be very challenging in some individuals. A topical preparation containing emodepside and praziquantel (Profender®, Bayer, Leverkusen, Germany) is promoted as effective against a broad range of nematodes, trematodes, and cestodes. Although this product is currently only licensed for administration to cats, previous studies have shown positive results with tortoises. The aim of this study was to determine the efficacy of Profender against oxyurid and ascarid parasites in captive tortoises. This was achieved by quantifying nematode eggs per gram (EPG) in feces using a modified McMaster technique before (Day 0) and after (Days 14 and 33) topical application of Profender at a dose rate of 21.5 mg emodepside and 85.5 mg praziquantel per kilogram. Twenty-nine tortoises, representing four different species, were enrolled in this study of which 14 (48%; including Testudo hermanni and Testudo graeca) were positive for intestinal nematodes. Following treatment, the oxyurid EPG was slightly increased on Day 14 but declined significantly by Day 33 (59.7% reduction; P = 0.01), indicating a slow onset of effect and moderate efficacy 33 days posttreatment; however, no conclusions regarding efficacy against ascarids can be drawn from this study. Topical application of emodepside and praziquantel was well tolerated in our tortoise population and, therefore, could be considered as a useful alternative anthelmintic treatment protocol for captive tortoises

Joint modelling rationale for chained equations

BACKGROUND: Chained equations imputation is widely used in medical research. It uses a set of conditional models, so is more flexible than joint modelling imputation for the imputation of different types of variables (e.g. binary, ordinal or unordered categorical). However, chained equations imputation does not correspond to drawing from a joint distribution when the conditional models are incompatible. Concurrently with our work, other authors have shown the equivalence of the two imputation methods in finite samples. METHODS: Taking a different approach, we prove, in finite samples, sufficient conditions for chained equations and joint modelling to yield imputations from the same predictive distribution. Further, we apply this proof in four specific cases and conduct a simulation study which explores the consequences when the conditional models are compatible but the conditions otherwise are not satisfied. RESULTS: We provide an additional “non-informative margins” condition which, together with compatibility, is sufficient. We show that the non-informative margins condition is not satisfied, despite compatible conditional models, in a situation as simple as two continuous variables and one binary variable. Our simulation study demonstrates that as a consequence of this violation order effects can occur; that is, systematic differences depending upon the ordering of the variables in the chained equations algorithm. However, the order effects appear to be small, especially when associations between variables are weak. CONCLUSIONS: Since chained equations is typically used in medical research for datasets with different types of variables, researchers must be aware that order effects are likely to be ubiquitous, but our results suggest they may be small enough to be negligibl

Axion Protection from Flavor

The QCD axion fails to solve the strong CP problem unless all explicit PQ violating, Planck-suppressed, dimension n<10 operators are forbidden or have exponentially small coefficients. We show that all theories with a QCD axion contain an irreducible source of explicit PQ violation which is proportional to the determinant of the Yukawa interaction matrix of colored fermions. Generically, this contribution is of low operator dimension and will drastically destabilize the axion potential, so its suppression is a necessary condition for solving the strong CP problem. We propose a mechanism whereby the PQ symmetry is kept exact up to n=12 with the help of the very same flavor symmetries which generate the hierarchical quark masses and mixings of the SM. This "axion flavor protection" is straightforwardly realized in theories which employ radiative fermion mass generation and grand unification. A universal feature of this construction is that the heavy quark Yukawa couplings are generated at the PQ breaking scale.Comment: 16 pages, 2 figure

Effects of local hypothermia-rewarming on physiology, metabolism and inflammation of acutely injured human spinal cord.

In five patients with acute, severe thoracic traumatic spinal cord injuries (TSCIs), American spinal injuries association Impairment Scale (AIS) grades A-C, we induced cord hypothermia (33 °C) then rewarming (37 °C). A pressure probe and a microdialysis catheter were placed intradurally at the injury site to monitor intraspinal pressure (ISP), spinal cord perfusion pressure (SCPP), tissue metabolism and inflammation. Cord hypothermia-rewarming, applied to awake patients, did not cause discomfort or neurological deterioration. Cooling did not affect cord physiology (ISP, SCPP), but markedly altered cord metabolism (increased glucose, lactate, lactate/pyruvate ratio (LPR), glutamate; decreased glycerol) and markedly reduced cord inflammation (reduced IL1β, IL8, MCP, MIP1α, MIP1β). Compared with pre-cooling baseline, rewarming was associated with significantly worse cord physiology (increased ICP, decreased SCPP), cord metabolism (increased lactate, LPR; decreased glucose, glycerol) and cord inflammation (increased IL1β, IL8, IL4, IL10, MCP, MIP1α). The study was terminated because three patients developed delayed wound infections. At 18-months, two patients improved and three stayed the same. We conclude that, after TSCI, hypothermia is potentially beneficial by reducing cord inflammation, though after rewarming these benefits are lost due to increases in cord swelling, ischemia and inflammation. We thus urge caution when using hypothermia-rewarming therapeutically in TSCI

The Effect of Testing on the Retention of Coherent and Incoherent Text Material

Research has shown that testing during learning can enhance the long-term retention of text material. In two experiments, we investigated the testing effect with a fill-in-the-blank test on the retention of text material. In Experiment 1, using a coherent text, we found no retention benefit of testing compared to a restudy (control) condition. In Experiment 2, text coherence was disrupted by scrambling the order of the sentences from the text. The material was subsequently presented as a list of facts as opposed to connected discourse. For the incoherent version of the text, testing slowed down the rate of forgetting compared to a restudy (control) condition. The results suggest that the connectedness of materials can play an important role in determining the magnitude of testing benefits for long-term retention. Testing with a completion test seems most beneficial for unconnected materials and less so for highly structured materials

Slower recovery in space before collapse of connected populations

Slower recovery from perturbations near a tipping point and its indirect signatures in fluctuation patterns have been suggested to foreshadow catastrophes in a wide variety of systems. Recent studies of populations in the field and in the laboratory have used time-series data to confirm some of the theoretically predicted early warning indicators, such as an increase in recovery time or in the size and timescale of fluctuations. However, the predictive power of temporal warning signals is limited by the demand for long-term observations. Large-scale spatial data are more accessible, but the performance of warning signals in spatially extended systems needs to be examined empirically. Here we use spatially extended yeast populations, an experimental system with a fold bifurcation (tipping point), to evaluate early warning signals based on spatio-temporal fluctuations and to identify a novel spatial warning indicator. We found that two leading indicators based on fluctuations increased before collapse of connected populations; however, the magnitudes of the increases were smaller than those observed in isolated populations, possibly because local variation is reduced by dispersal. Furthermore, we propose a generic indicator based on deterministic spatial patterns, which we call ‘recovery length’. As the spatial counterpart of recovery time, recovery length is the distance necessary for connected populations to recover from spatial perturbations. In our experiments, recovery length increased substantially before population collapse, suggesting that the spatial scale of recovery can provide a superior warning signal before tipping points in spatially extended systems.United States. National Institutes of Health (NIH R00 GM085279-02)United States. National Institutes of Health (NIH DP2)Alfred P. Sloan FoundationNational Science Foundation (U.S.