Distinguishing between ‘Normal’ and ‘Extreme’ Price Volatility in Food Security Assessment

Volatile food prices are held to threaten food security worldwide, but controversy over how to distinguish between ‘normal’ and ‘extreme’ volatility compromises threat assessment and identification of countermeasures. Whether food-market dynamics normally stabilize or destabilize prices is the source of controversy. The conventional view is that market dynamics are inherently stable so that price volatility—arising from exogenous shocks normally stabilizes due to forces of supply and demand. Extended food panics are improbable, reducing need for interventionist public policy. An emergent alternative view is that market dynamics are inherently unstable so that volatility persists endogenously. Interventionist public policy is needed to deal with chronic food panics

MMP-2 and sTNF-R1 variability in patients with essential hypertension: 1-year follow-up study

The aim of this study is to analyze MMP-2 and sTNF-R1 variability, potent predictors of cardiovascular events, in stable hypertensive patients during a 12-month followup. 234 asymptomatic patients (age 6 0 ± 1 3 , 136 male) out of 252 patients with essential hypertension were followed up. MMP-2 and sTNF-R1 were measured at baseline and after 12 months (stage I). To compare MMP-2 and sTNF-R1 levels over time interval, we used the statistical method of Bland-Altman. MMP-2 and sTNF-R1 reproducibility was good in our patients for the two intervals with a coefficient of reproducibility of 8.2% and 11.3%, respectively. The percentages of patients within 1.96 × standard deviation of the mean were 93.6% and 92.7%. An elevated coefficient of correlation was obtained for MMP-2, basal versus stage I

Modeling soil water dynamics considering measurement uncertainty

In shallow water table controlled environments, surface water management impacts groundwater table levels and soil water dynamics. The study goal was to simulate soil water dynamics in response to canal stage raises considering uncertainty in measured soil water content. WAVE (Water and Agrochemicals in the soil, crop and Vadose Environment) was applied to simulate unsaturated flow above a shallow aquifer. Global sensitivity analysis was performed to identify model input factors with greatest influence on predicted soil water content. Nash-Sutcliffe increased and Root Mean Square Error reduced when uncertainties in measured data were considered in goodness-of-fit calculations using measurement probability distributions and probable asymmetric error boundaries; implying that appropriate model performance evaluation should be done using uncertainty ranges instead of single values. Although uncertainty in the experimental measured data limited evaluation of the absolute predictions by the model, WAVE was found a useful exploratory tool for estimating temporal variation in soil water content. Visual analysis of soil water content time series under proposed changes in canal stage management indicated that sites with land surface elevation of less than 2.0 m NGVD29 were predicted to periodically experience saturated conditions in the root zone and shortening of the growing season if canal stage is raised more than 9 cm and maintained at this level. The models developed could be combined with high resolution digital elevation models in future studies to identify areas with the greatest risk of experiencing saturated root zone. The study also highlighted the need to incorporate measurement uncertainty when evaluating performance of unsaturated flow models

Dynamic factor analysis of surface water management impacts on soil and bedrock water contents in Southern Florida Lowlands

As part of the C111 spreader canal project, structural and operational modifications involving incremental raises in canal stage are planned along one of the major canals (i.e., C111) separating Everglades National Park and agricultural production areas to the east of the park. This study used Dynamic Factor Analysis (DFA) as an alternative tool to physically based models to explore the relationship between different hydrologic variables and the effect of proposed changes in surface water management on soil and bedrock water contents in south Florida. To achieve the goal, objectives were to: (1) use DFA to identify the most important factors affecting temporal variation in soil and bedrock water contents, (2) develop a simplified DFA based regression model for predicting soil and bedrock water contents as a function of canal stage and (3) assess the effect of the proposed incremental raises in canal stage on soil and bedrock water contents. DFA revealed that 5 common trends were the minimum required to describe unexplained variation in the 11 time series studied. Introducing canal stage, water table evaporation and net recharge resulted in lower Akaike information criterion (AIC) and higher Nash-Sutcliffe (C[subscript eff]) values. Results indicated that canal stage significantly (t > 2) drives temporal variation in soil and bedrock water contents, which was represented as scaled frequency while net surface recharge was significant in 7 out of the 11 time series analyzed. The effect of water table evaporation was not significant at all sites. Results also indicated that the most important factor influencing temporal variation in soil and bedrock water contents in terms of regression coefficient magnitude was canal stage. Based on DFA results, a simple regression model was developed to predict soil and bedrock water contents at various elevations as a function of canal stage and net recharge. The performance of the simple model ranged from good (C[subscript eff] ranging from 0.56 to 0.74) to poor (C[subscript eff] ranging from 0.10 to 0.15), performance was better at sites with smaller depths to water table (< 1 m) highlighting the effect of micro-topography on soil and bedrock water content dynamics. Assessment of the effect of 6, 9 and 12 cm increases in canal stage using the simple regression model indicated that changes in temporal variation in soil and bedrock water contents were negligible (average<1.0% average change) at 500 to 2000 m from C111 (or low elevations) which may be attributed to the near saturation conditions already occurring at these sites. This study used DFA to explore the relationship between soil and bedrock water dynamics and surface water stage in shallow water table environments. This approach can be applied to any system in which detailed physical modeling would be limited by inadequate information on parameters or processes governing the physical system

Sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation for an approximate analytical model of canal-aquifer interaction applied in the C-111 basin

The goal of this study was to better characterize parameters influencing the exchange of surface water in south Florida’s C-111 canal and Biscayne aquifer using the analytical model STWT1. A three-step model evaluation framework was implemented as follows: (1) qualitative parameter ranking by comparing two Morris method sampling strategies, (2) quantitative variance-based sensitivity analysis using Sobol’s method, and (3) estimation of parameter posterior probability distributions and statistics using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimator (GLUE) methodology. Results indicated that the original Morris random sampling method underestimated total parameter effects compared to the improved global Morris sampling strategy. However, parameter rankings from the two sampling methods were similar. For the STWT1 model, only four out of the six parameters analyzed were important for predicting water table response to canal stage and recharge fluctuations. Morris ranking in order of decreasing importance resulted in specific yield (ASY), aquifer saturated thickness (AB), horizontal hydraulic conductivity (AKX), canal leakance (XAA), vertical hydraulic conductivity (AKZ), and half-width of canal (XZERO). Sobol’s sensitivity indices for the four most critical parameters revealed that summation of first-order parameter effects was 1.0, indicating that STWT1 behaved as an additive model or negligible parameter interactions. We estimated parameter values of 0.07 to 0.14 for ASY, 11,000 to 14,300 m d-1 for AKX, 13.4 to 18.3 m for AB, and 99.8 to 279 m for XAA. The estimated values were within the range of values estimated using more complex methods at nearby sites. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency and root mean square error for estimated parameters ranged from 0.66 to 0.95 and from 4 to 7 cm, respectively. This study demonstrates a simple and inexpensive way to characterize hydrogeological parameters controlling groundwater-surface interactions in any region with aquifers that are highly permeable without using standard pumping tests or canal drawdown experiments. Hydrogeological parameters estimated using this approach could be used as starting values in large-scale numerical simulations

Simulating water table response to proposed changes in surface water management in the C-111 agricultural basin of south Florida

As part of an effort to restore the hydrology of Everglades National Park (ENP), incremental raises in canal stage are proposed along a major canal draining south Florida called C-111, which separates ENP from agricultural lands. The study purpose was to use monitoring and modeling to investigate the effect of the proposed incremental raises in canal stage on water table elevation in agricultural lands. The objectives were to: (1) develop a MODFLOW based model for simulating groundwater flow within the study area, (2) apply the developed model to determine if the proposed changes in canal stage result in significant changes in water table elevation, root zone saturation or groundwater flooding and (3) assess aquifer response to large rainfall events. Results indicate the developed model was able to reproduce measured water table elevation with an average Nash-Sutcliffe > 0.9 and Root Mean Square Error 2 year return period storm), reduced water table intrusion into the root zone. We conclude that the impact of operational changes in canal stage management on root zone saturation and groundwater flooding depended on micro-topography within the field and depth of storm events. The findings of this study can be used in fine tuning canal stage operations to minimize root zone saturation and groundwater flooding of agricultural fields while maximizing environmental benefits through increased water flow in the natural wetland areas. This study also highlights the benefit of detailed field scale simulations

Study on the optical and electrical properties of tetracyanoethylene doped bilayer graphene stack for transparent conducting electrodes

We report the optical and electrical properties of chemically-doped bilayer graphene stack by tetracyanoethylene, a strong electron acceptor. The Tetracyanoethylene doping on the bilayer graphene via charge transfer was confirmed by Raman spectroscopy and Infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy. Doped graphene shows a significant increase in the sheet carrier concentration of up to 1.520 × 1013 cm−2 with a concomitant reduction of the sheet resistance down to 414.1 Ω/sq. The high optical transmittance (ca. 84%) in the visible region in combination with the low sheet resistance of the Tetracyanoethylene-doped bilayer graphene stack opens up the possibility of making transparent conducting electrodes for practical applications

Localization Properties of Electronic States in Polaron Model of poly(dG)-poly(dC) and poly(dA)-poly(dT) DNA polymers

We numerically investigate localization properties of electronic states in a static model of poly(dG)-poly(dC) and poly(dA)-poly(dT) DNA polymers with realistic parameters obtained by quantum-chemical calculation. The randomness in the on-site energies caused by the electron-phonon coupling are completely correlated to the off-diagonal parts. In the single electron model, the effect of the hydrogen-bond stretchings, the twist angles between the base pairs and the finite system size effects on the energy dependence of the localization length and on the Lyapunov exponent are given. The localization length is reduced by the influence of the fluctuations in the hydrogen bond stretchings. It is also shown that the helical twist angle affects the localization length in the poly(dG)-poly(dC) DNA polymer more strongly than in the poly(dA)-poly(dT) one. Furthermore, we show resonance structures in the energy dependence of the localization length when the system size is relatively small.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figure