Estimating the global temperature change by means of a fuzzy logic model obtained from IPCC published data

Ponencia presentada en: VI Congreso Internacional de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Tarragona del 8 al 11 de octubre de 2008.[EN]The long term scenarios (until year 2100) developed by the The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicate a wide range of future concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols. It can be inferred from these data that higher temperature increases are directly related with higher emission levels of greenhouse gases and the related increase into the atmosphere. It is also evident that lower temperature increases are related with smaller amounts of emissions and, therefore, with lower greenhouse gases concentrations. In this work simple linguistic rules are extracted from the IPCC reports in a subjective way. These rules describe the relations between the greenhouse gases emissions, their concentrations, the radiative forcing associated with concentrations, and the temperature changes.[ES]Los escenarios de largo plazo (hasta el año 2100) desarrollados por el Panel Intergubernamental de Cambio Climático indican un rango muy amplio en los valores de las futuras concentraciones de gases de invernadero y aerosoles. Basándose en estos datos se puede inferir que los mayores incrementos de temperatura están directamente relacionados con una mayor cantidad de emisiones de gases de invernadero y el concomitante incremento de su concentración en la atmósfera. De igual manera, los menores incrementos de temperatura están relacionados con una menor cantidad de emisiones y, por ende, con menores concentraciones de gases de invernadero. En este trabajo se utilizan reglas lingüísticas simples, extraídas de manera subjetiva de los reportes de IPCC, que describen las relaciones entre las emisiones de gases de invernadero, sus concentraciones, los forzamientos radiativos asociados a estas concentraciones y los cambios de temperatura

Estimating the global temperature change by means of a fuzzy logic model obtained from a simple climate model

Ponencia presentada en: VI Congreso Internacional de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Tarragona del 8 al 11 de octubre de 2008.[EN]In this work a simple box model of the ocean-atmosphere system is used to asses the response of the simulated global mean temperature to expected changes in the surface thermal forcing at the year 2000, as well as to variations of two key parameters, namely ocean thermal diffusivity and the atmospheric feedback. Such experiments provide the input data needed to build fuzzy logic models that are able to deal with the uncertainties associated to the model parameters. Two fuzzy logic approaches are presented in this article.[ES]En este trabajo se utiliza un modelo de cajas del sistema océano-atmósfera para estudiar la respuesta de la temperatura promedio global a cambios en el forzamiento radiativo y a la variación de dos parámetros importantes del modelo: la difusividad térmica del océano y la sensitividad de la atmósfera (procesos de retroalimentación). A partir de los campos de temperatura obtenidos, se construyen dos modelos basados en lógica difusa

Neuro-fuzzy system for diagnosis of engines, based on oil samples analysis

The present paper describes a neuro-fuzzy. hybrid system applied to the diagnosis of automobile engines, based on the analysis of oil samples. A relevance analysls was done to select the most significant variables among the avallable ones, in order to classify the samples. Such relevance analysls is described in detalls along the paper. Four dlfferent systems were implemented one pure neural system, and three dlfferent neuro-fuzzy systems. A detailed descriptlon of the neural and fuzzy systems is also presented, as well as the performance obtained by each one of them

Boron concentration profiling by high angle annular dark field-scanning transmission electron microscopy in homoepitaxial delta-doped diamond layers

To develop further diamond related devices, the concentration and spatial location of dopants should be controlled down to the nanometer scale. Scanning transmission electron microscopy using the high angle annular dark field mode is shown to be sensitive to boron doping in diamond epilayers. An analytical procedure is described, whereby local boron concentrations above 1020 cm-3 were quantitatively derived down to nanometer resolution from the signal dependence on thickness and boron content. Experimental boron local doping profiles measured on diamond p-/p++/p- multilayers are compared to macroscopic profiles obtained by secondary ion mass spectrometry, avoiding reported artefacts.4 page

A critique of the economics of climate change in Mexico

This paper revises some relevant aspects of The Economics of Climate Change in Mexico (ECCM), one of the most important documents for supporting national decisionmaking regarding the climate change international negotiations. In addition to pointing out some important methodological inadequacies, this paper shows that the ECCM's main results are questionable. Even though this study was inspired on the Stern Review and benefited from the support of original members of the Stern team, the ECCM is not consistent with the world portrayed in the Stern Review in many aspects, particularly regarding the importance of climate change impacts. The estimates of the costs of climate change for Mexico are so low that can hardly be considered to be consistent with the previous studies that have been reported in the literature concerning regional and global scales. Furthermore, it is shown that the document's main conclusion is not supported even by the estimates of the costs of the impacts of climate change and of the mitigation strategies that are presented in it. It is argued that this document has important deficiencies that do not make it adequate for supporting decision-making. In addition, the ECCM has inspired other reports regarding the economics of climate change in Central and Latin America, and as is shown here, their results are also questionable. This raises further reasons for concern because these national documents are building a regional view of what climate change could imply for Latin America that severely underestimates the importance of this phenomenon

Fuzzy rules model for global warming decision suport

Ponencia presentada en: VI Congreso Internacional de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Tarragona del 8 al 11 de octubre de 2008.[EN]In this work a simple box model of the ocean-atmosphere is used to asses the response of the coupled system to the projected increase in the amount of carbon dioxide, by varying internal model parameters, within plausible ranges, as well as the thermal forcing associated with the greenhouse gases. The values of temperature increase are used to build fuzzy logic models based on the Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning (FIR) methodology that are able to deal with the uncertainties associated to the box model parameters. FIR is a data driven methodology that uses fuzzy and pattern recognition techniques to infer system models and to predict their future behavior.[ES]En este trabajo se utiliza un modelo simple del sistema océano-atmósfera para obtener valores de temperatura promediados globalmente. En este modelo, la temperatura es una función del calor agregado al sistema, de la sensitividad de la atmósfera y de la difusividad del océano. A partir de los campos de temperatura obtenidos, se construye un modelo basado en lógica difusa, concretamente usando la metodología del Razonamiento Inductivo Difuso (FIR, por las siglas en inglés), el cual es capaz de predecir el cambio de temperatura global con una gran precisión. Sin embargo, el modelo FIR no permite una interpretación suficientemente sencilla de la dinámica del sistema para que sea útil a los tomadores de decisiones

Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources, Indices, and Related Activities in Colombia

In Colombia, a country with great climatic diversity, the water balance is affected in one way or another by climate change depending on the region. Thus, there may be increases and decreases in precipitation and, in all cases, a huge increase in temperature. This document presents some studies carried out in different areas of the country regarding the effects of climate change on water resources, including its influence on hydroelectric power generation, some changes in the water balance in arid areas, and the opportunity to ensemble climate change scenarios. Likewise, it outlines a possible future water supply-demand relationship, where supply is associated with a change in the water balance and demand with some crops, activities, and sectors that need water to survive. This allows to estimate some future status indices to see the overall picture of climate change in connection with the country’s water resources