Does violence pay? The effect of ethnic rebellion on overcoming political deprivation

Studies have found that politically deprived groups are more likely to rebel. However, does rebellion increase the likelihood of achieving political rights? This article proposes that rebellion helps ethnic groups to overcome deprivation. I illustrate this by using a “typical” case (the Ijaw’s struggle against the Nigerian government) to demonstrate how ethnic rebellion increases the costs for the government to a point where granting political rights becomes preferable to war. Further, I exploit time-series-cross-sectional data on deprived ethnic groups to show that rebellion is significantly associated with overcoming deprivation. The statistical analysis shows that democratic change is an alternative mechanism

South Sudan's newest war: when two old men divide a nation

A political power struggle between South Sudanese president Salva Kiir and former vice president Riek Machar resulted in violent clashes between ethnic army factions in December 2013. Since then fighting has spread across South Sudan and claimed the lives of around 10,000 people. South Sudan has experienced several insurgencies since gaining independence in 2011. Nevertheless, the current war has the potential to be more destructive to the country than previous ones because both parties - President Salva Kiir, an ethnic Dinka, and his opponent, former vice president Riek Machar, an ethnic Nuer - are instrumentalizing ethnic identities and pulling their communities into their personal feud. A number of latent issues have contributed to the current crisis. These include South Sudan's dysfunctional political system and inadequate political leadership, the historical distrust between the Dinka and the Nuer, and the country's unhealthy dependence on oil rents. The civilian population is carrying the cost of the conflict. More than 10,000 people have been killed and more than one million displaced since the outbreak of the latest violence. Livelihoods have been destroyed and more than 3.7 million people, approximately a third of the population, are estimated to be at risk of food insecurity. The short- and long-term economic consequences for South Sudan are harsh. Oil production has dropped by 40 percent, severely affecting the state’s budget. Trade has suffered. In the long run, political instability will jeopardize foreign direct investment in South Sudan. The international community's reaction has been varied: Neighboring countries have supported the government diplomatically and militarily, while the United States and the European Union plan to impose sanctions on the leaders of both sides of the conflict. China has taken an active role in the ongoing peace process

Südsudan: vom Traum in die Realität

Die Rebellengruppe South Sudan Liberation Movement/Army (SSLM/A) meldete nach schweren Kämpfen mit der südsudanesischen Armee am 29. Oktober 2011 die Eroberung der Stadt Mayom im Bundesstaat Unity (Sudan Tribune 29.10.2011). Seit dem Friedensabkommen von 2005 (Comprehensive Peace Agreement, CPA) steht im Südsudan der Aufbau einer Staatsverwaltung auf der Tagesordnung. Die Regierung Salva Kiir hat den politischen Apparat seither zwar aufgebläht, die administrativen Kapazitäten reichen jedoch bei Weitem noch nicht aus, um elementare staatliche Kernaufgaben erfüllen zu können. Die Sicherheitslage innerhalb des Südsudan ist aufgrund ethnischer Konflikte und marodierender Rebellen- und Banditengruppen sehr instabil. Der ungeklärte Grenzverlauf zum Nordsudan in den Regionen Abyei, Südkordofan und Blue Nile war wiederholt Anlass blutiger Konflikte und Flüchtlingsbewegungen. Das Straßennetz ist erst im Aufbau und in der Fläche unterentwickelt. Zudem sind während der Regenzeit viele Gebiete unzugänglich. Große Teile der Bevölkerung haben deshalb weder Zugang zu medizinischer Versorgung noch zu Grundnahrungsmitteln. Gesundheits- und Bildungssystem existieren allenfalls rudimentär. Seit Jahrzehnten leisten internationale Nichtregierungsorganisationen hier Aufbauhilfe – mit der Folge, dass sich der Staat zurückhält, anstatt Eigenverantwortung zu übernehmen. Zwar ist man sich der Unterentwicklung der Landwirtschaft bewusst, die Maßnahmen zu deren Förderung sind jedoch völlig unzureichend. Die Nahrungsmittelknappheit wird ausschließlich von internationalen Hilfsorganisationen abgefedert. Der Staatshaushalt ist zu 98 Prozent von Erdöleinnahmen abhängig und damit äußerst anfällig für Ölpreisschwankungen. Die Verwendung der Erlöse erfolgt weder effizient noch transparent, Korruption ist endemisch

War and Nationalism: How WW1 Battle Deaths Fueled Civilians’ Support for the Nazi Party

Can wars breed nationalism? We argue that civilians’ indirect exposure to war fatalities can trigger psychological processes that increase identification with their nation and ultimately strengthen support for nationalist parties. We test this argument in the context of the rise of the Nazi Party after World War 1 (WW1). To measure localized war exposure, we machine-coded information on 7.5 million German soldiers who were wounded or died in WW1. Our empirical strategy leverages battlefield dynamics that cause plausibly exogenous variation in the county-level casualty fatality rate—the share of dead soldiers among all casualties. We find that throughout the interwar period, electoral support for right-wing nationalist parties, including the Nazi Party, was 2.6 percentage points higher in counties with above-median casualty fatality rates. Consistent with our proposed mechanism, we find that this effect was driven by civilians rather than veterans and areas with a preexisting tradition of collective war commemoration.publishedVersio

Endpoints and design of clinical trials in patients with decompensated cirrhosis: Position paper of the LiverHope Consortium

Management of decompensated cirrhosis is currently geared towards the treatment of complications once they occur. To date there is no established disease-modifying therapy aimed at halting progression of the disease and preventing the development of complications in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. The design of clinical trials to investigate new therapies for patients with decompensated cirrhosis is complex. The population of patients with decompensated cirrhosis is heterogeneous (i.e., different etiologies, comorbidities and disease severity), leading to the inclusion of diverse populations in clinical trials. In addition, primary endpoints selected for trials that include patients with decompensated cirrhosis are not homogeneous and at times may not be appropriate. This leads to difficulties in comparing results obtained from different trials. Against this background, the LiverHope Consortium organized a meeting of experts, the goal of which was to develop recommendations for the design of clinical trials and to define appropriate endpoints, both for trials aimed at modifying the natural history and preventing progression of decompensated cirrhosis, as well as for trials aimed at managing the individual complications of cirrhosis

Profiling the HER3/PI3K Pathway in Breast Tumors Using Proximity-Directed Assays Identifies Correlations between Protein Complexes and Phosphoproteins

The identification of patients for targeted antineoplastic therapies requires accurate measurement of therapeutic targets and associated signaling complexes. HER3 signaling through heterodimerization is an important growth-promoting mechanism in several tumor types and may be a principal resistance mechanism by which EGFR and HER2 expressing tumors elude targeted therapies. Current methods that can study these interactions are inadequate for formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tumor samples.Herein, we describe a panel of proximity-directed assays capable of measuring protein-interactions and phosphorylation in FFPE samples in the HER3/PI3K/Akt pathway and examine the capability of these assays to inform on the functional state of the pathway. We used FFPE breast cancer cell line and tumor models for this study. In breast cancer cell lines we observe both ligand-dependent and independent activation of the pathway and strong correlations between measured activation of key analytes. When selected cell lines are treated with HER2 inhibitors, we not only observe the expected molecular effects based on mechanism of action knowledge, but also novel effects of HER2 inhibition on key targets in the HER receptor pathway. Significantly, in a xenograft model of delayed tumor fixation, HER3 phosphorylation is unstable, while alternate measures of pathway activation, such as formation of the HER3PI3K complex is preserved. Measurements in breast tumor samples showed correlations between HER3 phosphorylation and receptor interactions, obviating the need to use phosphorylation as a surrogate for HER3 activation.This assay system is capable of quantitatively measuring therapeutically relevant responses and enables molecular profiling of receptor networks in both preclinical and tumor models

B-cell targeting with anti-CD38 daratumumab:implications for differentiation and memory responses

B cell–targeted therapies, such as CD20-targeting mAbs, deplete B cells but do not target the autoantibody-producing plasma cells (PCs). PC-targeting therapies such as daratumumab (anti-CD38) form an attractive approach to treat PC-mediated diseases. CD38 possesses enzymatic and receptor capabilities, which may impact a range of cellular processes including proliferation and differentiation. However, very little is known whether and how CD38 targeting affects B-cell differentiation, in particular for humans beyond cancer settings. Using in-depth in vitro B-cell differentiation assays and signaling pathway analysis, we show that CD38 targeting with daratumumab demonstrated a significant decrease in proliferation, differentiation, and IgG production upon T cell–dependent B-cell stimulation. We found no effect on T-cell activation or proliferation. Furthermore, we demonstrate that daratumumab attenuated the activation of NF-?B in B cells and the transcription of NF-?B–targeted genes. When culturing sorted B-cell subsets with daratumumab, the switched memory B-cell subset was primarily affected. Overall, these in vitro data elucidate novel non-depleting mechanisms by which daratumumab can disturb humoral immune responses. Affecting memory B cells, daratumumab may be used as a therapeutic approach in B cell–mediated diseases other than the currently targeted malignancies