Recession and Recovery: Jobs in Nebraska: 2008 to 2012

A commonly used resource for tracking changes in jobs and income at the county level is the Regional Economic Information System (REIS) data base produced annually by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). REIS data are derived from tax filings by employers, employees and the self-employed. The data base has been relatively unchanged (except for a reorganization of industry codes) since 1969. Reporting is always for the tax year two-years previous to the release date, so the data are more about historical than current conditions. However, REIS is generally seen as reliable and does provide a trend line that now covers 43 years making it a valuable resource for understanding regional, state and local economies. Two years ago, BEA stopped reporting employment data in response to the federal sequester of funds that applied to fiscal years 2013 and 2014. Among other things, this limited the value of REIS data in tracking recovery from the 2007 recession at the local (county) level. In May of 2014, the employment files were reintroduced to the system. As a result, we can now track employment as well as income through 2012, taking us through several years of what has nationally been a slow recovery in the employment sector. In this issue of Cornhusker Economics, we will use REIS data to examine changes in employment between 2008 and 2012 for Nebraska counties. According to those data, the State of Nebraska added 6,376 total full-and part-time jobs over those five years. It is a weakness in REIS data that one cannot distinguish between full-time and part-time jobs. As depicted in Figure 1, 71 of Nebraska’s 93 counties did indeed see increases in total full-and parttime employment between 2008 and 2012. Job losses where they did exist tended to be associated with Metropolitan and Micropolitan core counties and were, in some cases, quite sizeable. ... While the most recent recession may not have actually led to overall job losses in Nebraska, it may have accelerated the trend toward greater self-employment, and this may be especially true in rural portions of the state

Community Size and Resident Satisfaction: Is There a Sweet Spot?

Members of the rural development industry have long debated the existence of a Best community size in which to invest resources successfully. Some places, it is argued, are simply too small to attract the businesses and population required for sustained development. Population trends of the last 50 years seem to support this notion, since every rural regions and communities have consistently lost population while larger places have grown by serving as regional trade centers

The Recovery is Sustained: The Nebraska Business Forecast Council

In September and October of this year, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita combined with an already-stretched world oil market to generate a spike in energy prices throughout the United States. The price spike naturally generated concern for the economy. Most recent recessions in the U.S. economy have been preceded by peaks in oil prices. Did the energy price spikes following Katrina and Rita derail the quickly-growing U.S. economy? The early evidence, and the economic outlook, suggest that the answer is no. Despite the hurricanes, third quarter GDP growth continued to be very strong, exceeding 4%. Further, strong job growth returned to the national economy in November after slow growth in the proceeding months due to heavy job losses in the Gulf Coast region. Even the spike in gasoline prices abated in November. By December, gasoline prices were slightly lower than in the period before the hurricanes struck. The hurricanes were a terrible human tragedy and devastated the economy of the affected regions. Like most natural disasters, however, the hurricanes were not a major drain on the national economy. The effects were modest and likely temporary, with a few months of slow job growth and a modest up tick in inflation at the end of 2005, and most likely, the beginning of 2006. In fact, the main threat for the economy may lie in the policy reaction to these events. Necessary spending to rebuild the Gulf Coast may exacerbate a yawning federal budget deficit, particularly if this spending reignites natural tendencies toward free spending among leaders in Washington. The outlook calls for GDP growth of 3.7% in 2005 before growth slows to 3.3% in 2006 and falls to the 2.5% to 3.0% growth range in 2007 and 2008. Job growth is expected to continue to be modest, averaging about 1.5% annually for the 2005 through 2008 period. The national unemployment rate should remain around 5%. Inflation will continue to run around 3% in 2005 and 2006 before moderating to a 2% rate in 2007 and 2008

Migration Statistics and Brain Drain/Gain

This presentation discusses: About migration; Often used sources of migration data; How many people move and why: an example of CPS data; Atlas Van Line Data show current level of outbound moves from Nebraska not as high as the late 1990s, but the increasing trend is concerning; Recent migration including by race/ethnicity; Migration differences for Nebraska counties; Breakdown for the \u3c10,000 city size categories; Historical perspective: How do the 2000s changes compare to recent decades; What about the migration of those specifically the college degrees - the brain drain/gain; and Summary

Omaha Area Retail Trade Analysis

The retail trade industry is a critical sector of the economy, and is an important source of tax revenue for cities. This study examines retail sales trends in the Omaha area as well as factors that determine retail sales including total population, minority population, commuting, income, wages, and total employment. We examine trends during the 1990s, and in particular during the 1997 to 2005 period. The focus is on Douglas County and a group of surrounding Nebraska counties. We found that Douglas County remains the dominant retail center in Nebraska, but its market share is slowly eroding as competition from suburban retailers increases. Suburbanization of the Omaha area’s retail sector is likely to be a long term trend. If the Douglas County retail community is to maintain its position of dominance, it will need to pay close attention to both its competitors and to emerging market opportunities. The concentration of minority populations in Douglas County represents one such opportunity for niche oriented retail activity. Another is found in retail clusters built around Douglas County’s strongest retail sectors such as furniture, home furnishings, recreational vehicles, specialty foods and luxury items such as jewelry

Trends and Factors Affecting Housing Panel Discussion

The housing market has come back with a vengeance in metro parts of Nebraska. Demographics play an important part in the reason why. This session will discuss the consumer lifecycle and how renting and rental unit construction boomed since the economic downturn as the large segment of millennials were at ages where people are most apt to rent. Now millennials are pushing into ages where marriage and children lead to home ownership, which will support the housing market as demand increases. Our panelists will discuss these and other factors that impact housing in both urban and rural parts of the state, including how to use data to frame a development or redevelopment project, and the challenges in nonmetro areas regarding the age and quality of housing stock

Changes in Cultural Practices of Farmers in Southeast Nebraska as a Result of Their Adoption of Transgenic Crops

How do cultural practices change as producers adopt transgenic crops? A group of progressive producers in southeast Nebraska were surveyed to learn how practices changed as RR soybeans were adopted. These producers were found conservative in changing their management practices to use transgenic crops most efficiently. Tillage and planting practices were unchanged from conventional crops. Seed dealers and on-farm research were the top educational resources used in determining which varieties of soybeans to plant. Based on this study, on-farm research offers Extension an avenue for providing needed information to producers

Census Data Product Update

This presentation features: Background information; Why a metro and rural poll simultaneously; A Look at the Covers of the Two Polls; Common Methodology; Common Questionnaires and Survey Topics; 2014 Rural Poll Results on Items Asked Annually; 2014 Rural Poll vs. Metro Poll Results on Items Asked Annually; 2014 Rural Poll vs. Metro Poll Results on Safety & Crime; and Overall Summary

Community Recruitment and Retention of New Residents: A Study Using a Market Assessment Process

In declining population regions, such as much of the rural Great Plains, many rural communities are competing for both employment opportunities and people to fill the work-force needs. While the former (jobs) has been traditionally emphasized in community development efforts, it is increasingly evident that new resident recruitment and retention is just as critical, if not more, to community sustainability. As part of a larger study of new resident migration into Nebraska’s Panhandle region, the purpose of this study was to explore new resident recruitment and retention patterns perceptions and development strategies from both sides of the market—the demand side (new residents) and the supply/provider side (communities marketing themselves as a desirable places to live). Using an iterative Delphi survey process of community practitioners, with input fed into the analysis from new-resident focus group findings, we were able to assess current market performance in terms of the relative effectiveness of new resident recruitment and retention programs and draw implications for future improvement