This presentation features: Background information; Why a metro and rural poll simultaneously; A Look at the Covers of the Two Polls; Common Methodology; Common Questionnaires and Survey Topics; 2014 Rural Poll Results on Items Asked Annually; 2014 Rural Poll vs. Metro Poll Results on Items Asked Annually; 2014 Rural Poll vs. Metro Poll Results on Safety & Crime; and Overall Summary

Cantrell, Randy

Deichert, Jerry

Drozd, David J.

Vogt, Becky

English

The University of Nebraska, Omaha

INITIAL 2014 METRO AND RURAL POLL RESULTSNebraska State Data Center25th Annual Data Users Conference11:15 to Noon, August 19, 2014Part of Conference WebcastDavid Drozd and Jerry Deichert Randy Cantrell and Becky VogtUNO Center for Public Affairs Research UNL Dept of Ag Economicsw• CPAR at UNO had periodically conducted an “Omaha Conditions Survey” to gauge public satisfaction with services and gain public opinions on key policy‐related topics– By telephone in 1990, 91, 93, 94, 98 and 2004• Similar methods used in 2006 project requested by the Omaha Chamber with a focus on underemployment• The rural poll from UNL was started in 1996 and has been conducted annually since (by mail) – 2014 marks the 19th consecutive year for the rural pollBackground information2w• CPAR’s “Omaha Conditions Survey” polled within the counties of the Omaha metro as defined at that time– Douglas, Sarpy, and Washington in 1990 and 1991– These plus Cass in 1993, 1994, and 1998– The above plus Saunders in 2004• The rural poll has sampled within nonmetropolitan Nebraska counties– 87 counties from 1996 through 2003• All but Cass, Dakota, Douglas, Lancaster, Sarpy, and Washington– 84 from 2004 through 2013• Dixon, Saunders, and Seward became metroBackground information – poll geographic coverage31994w• Policy makers and researchers from UNO and UNL had talked about the need for similar comparable data across the state for a number of years– Data for an area has value, but its worth increases when you can compare it to findings from another area– Neither poll independently could obtain statewide coverage and be able to ascertain and detail assumed differences in attitudes in varying geographic areas across the state– In 2014 we made two comparable polls happen• Got together, decided upon a common methodology and set of questions over a similar timeframe/budgetWhy a metro and rural poll simultaneously4w5A Look at the Covers of the Two Polls6w• Written/Mail survey with online response option– Households received 4 mailings, about 2 weeks apart• Late March/Early April: Initial letter saying survey would be coming; had info for completing it online instead• Early to Mid April: Hardcopy questionnaire with cover letter and info saying how it could be completed online• Late April/Early May: Reminder postcard, again with online completion info• Mid to Late May: 2nd hardcopy questionnaire (and online completion info)• 7,500 addresses sent to initially– Both polls oversampled 500 Hispanic records• Did take the time and cost to have the survey and letters translated into Spanish– Sent items in both English and Spanish to select households– Metro poll also oversampled 500 Black households and 1,000 households under age 40Common Methodology7w• The two polls decided to ask the same exact questions in the same exact order for direct comparisons– Booklet form, 14 half size pages of content plus the cover and a back page for comments– Subject areas included:• Attitudes toward community, satisfaction with services, satisfaction with life aspects, and better/worse off questions• Open ended questions on most important problems for metro areas and rural parts of Nebraska to address– Each survey asked both for cross comparison; some people could not answer for both areas (said they didn’t know enough)• Characteristics of successful communities• Personal safety and crime• Employment and underemployment• Demographics– The only two question differences on the surveys regarded demographics» Metro poll asked political views and church attendance while rural poll asked population of community and occupationCommon Questionnaires and Survey Topics8wResponse Rate Summary for the two Polls9wResponse Rate Data for 2014 Nebraska Metro and Rural PollsSample Description Size Undeliverable Undeliv. % Relevant Size Returns Response %Metro Poll Random Sample 5,500 392 7.1% 5,108 937 18.3%Metro Poll Hispanic Oversample 500 42 8.4% 458 45 9.8%Metro Poll Black Oversample 500 56 11.2% 444 50 11.3%Metro Poll < Age 40 Oversample 1,000 86 8.6% 914 113 12.4%Unidentified returns n/a n/a n/a n/a 4 n/aMetro Poll Overall 7,500 576 7.7% 6,924 1,149 16.6%Rural Poll Random Sample 7,000 618 8.8% 6,382 1,891 29.6%Rural Poll Hispanic Oversample 500 69 13.8% 431 52 12.1%Rural Poll Overall 7,500 687 9.2% 6,813 1,943 28.5%2014 RURAL POLL RESULTS ON ITEMS ASKED ANNUALLY“ADDING TO THE TIME SERIES”10w• Rural Nebraskans are more likely to say their community has changed for the better compared to last year.• For most years, the percentage saying their community has changed for the better has been greater than the percentage saying it changed for the worse.Rural Poll: Community Change11wRural Poll: Community Change: 1996 – 201412w39 37 3128332824 23 262833 333023 26 2634 3135394553 52 5053 55 53 525346 454851 51 534651462318 17 19 1619 2124 211922 22 22 262422 20 18 200102030405060PercentBetter No change WorseWhen you think about this past year, would you say: My community has changed for the … worse, no change, better?2014 Rural Poll: Community Change in the Past Year by Community Size13w0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Less than 500500 ‐ 9991,000 ‐ 4,9995,000 ‐ 9,99910,000 and up271819171749554345442428383839Worse No Change BetterWhen you think about this past year, would you say: My community has changed for the … worse, no change, better?Community Size (persons)Note: Differences were statistically significant at the 99% level of confidence. Among all rural poll respondents: 20% stated worse place, 46% about the same and 35% stated better place.2014 Rural Poll: Expected Community Change by Community Size14w0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Less than 500500 ‐ 9991,000 ‐ 4,9995,000 ‐ 9,99910,000 and up242623242260544946471620283131Worse place About the same Better placeDo you think that in ten years from now your community will be a worse place to live, a better place or about the same?Community Size (persons)Note: Differences were statistically significant at the 99% level of confidence. Among all rural poll respondents: 23% stated worse place, 50% about the same and 27% stated better place.Rural Poll: Satisfaction with Community Services: 1997– 201415w63473421736259403826533301020304050607080PercentNursing home care Mental health services Medical care servicesRestaurants Entertainment Retail shopping• Rural Nebraskans have generally given positive reviews about their current situation.– Each year, the proportion saying they are better off than they were five years ago has been greater than the proportion saying they are worse off than they were five years ago.• Similarly, they have always been optimistic about their future.– The proportion saying they will be better off ten years from now has always been greater than the proportion saying they will be worse off ten years from now.Rural Poll: General Well-Being16w• Rural Nebraskans are more positive about their current situation compared to last year.• Rural Nebraskans’ outlook on their future is much more positive this year compared to last year.Rural Poll: Optimism Increased This Year17wRural Poll: Well-Being Compared to Five Years Ago: 1996 – 201418w251914201518 1928211619151928211821261736 384441434539 4138 39 42 41293030 31 2933 333943 4239433742324145 3944534350 52 51425001020304050601996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014Worse off About the same Better offRural Poll: Well-Being Ten Years from Now: 1996 - 201419w28231520161815231917 18 1822 202320 203222363841394341414038 3741413336 36 35 3634 35374043 42424144374346414145 44 4245 453444051015202530354045501996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014Worse off About the same Better off2014 RURAL POLL VS. METRO POLL RESULTS ON ITEMS ASKED ANNUALLY“MAKING COMPARISONS”20w• Metro residents stated more often that they were “better off” regarding change in their community as well as in their personal life• Metro residents were more positive on their outlook– How things will change in the next 10 years – Less often agreed that they were “powerless to control their life/future”• Metro residents were much more satisfied than rural residents regarding “things to do”– Entertainment, Retail shopping, Arts/Cultural activities, RestaurantsTakeaways from the Comparisons of Items asked Annually21wQ1 Community change during past year Worse No Change BetterRural Poll 19.5 45.9 34.7Metro Poll 15.0 41.4 43.5Difference (MP - RP) -4.5 -4.5 8.8Q2 Expected community change in 10 years Worse Place About the Same Better PlaceRural Poll 23.0 50.4 26.6Metro Poll 18.1 46.5 35.3Difference (MP - RP) -4.9 -3.9 8.7Response percentages for recent and future community change; Metro residents gave more positive responses22wNote: Differences between the polls for both questions were statistically significant at the 99% level of confidence. Response percentages for personal change and outlook; Metro residents gave more positive responses23wResponse percentages for being “powerless to control own life/future”; Metro residents gave more positive responses24wDisagreed with being “powerless”Metro: 61%Rural:   50%Disagreed with being “powerless”Metro: 70%Rural:   61%Q4 My community is powerless to control its own future.Strong Disagree Disagree Undecided AgreeStrong AgreeRural Poll 12.8 48.3 21.9 13.4 3.5Metro Poll 18.4 52.0 17.4 10.3 1.9Difference (MP - RP) 5.6 3.7 -4.5 -3.1 -1.6Q17 … most people are powerless to control their own lives.Strong Disagree Disagree Undecided AgreeStrong AgreeRural Poll 14.2 36.2 17.3 25.8 6.6Metro Poll 18.2 42.9 12.8 21.1 5.0Difference (MP - RP) 4.0 6.7 -4.5 -4.7 -1.6Note: Differences between the polls for both questions were statistically significant at the 99% level of confidence. Graph showing satisfaction; large yellow bars show big differences between the polls25wRural residents were relatively more satisfied with Nursing Home Care, Senior Centers, and Head Start/Early Childhood Programs26wMy community is …MP low response (1-3)RP low response (1-3)Differ-enceMP high response (5-7)RP high response (5-7)Differ-enceMP average responseRP average responseDiffer-enceUnfriendly vs. Friendly (1-7) 7.0 8.1 -1.1 82.2 76.9 5.3 5.40 5.35 0.05Distrusting vs. Trusting (1-7) 13.5 15.4 -1.9 66.6 64.4 2.2 4.93 4.90 0.03Hostile vs. Supportive (1-7) 13.4 12.9 0.5 68.3 68.9 -0.6 4.98 5.05 -0.07How easy or difficult would it be for your household to leave your community?Very Easy vs. Very Difficult (1-7) 33.7 31.0 2.7 52.4 55.0 -2.6 4.35 4.49 -0.14Note: None of the differences between the polls in the above items were significantly signficant at the 95% level of confidence. Response percentages for community aspects; Data from both polls are similar27wPersonal Satisfaction: Clean air and greenery/open space higher in Rural; Housing and Health higher in Metro; marriage, family, and friends similar28w2014 RURAL POLL VS. METRO POLL RESULTS ON SAFETY & CRIME ITEMS“MAKING COMPARISONS”29w• Almost all comparisons of differences in the values between the two polls were statistically significant• Metro residents were much more worried about crime in their community as well as personally being a victim of crime• Very few respondents in either area said the crime situation had changed for the better in the past few years• Drugs were perceived as a problem in both areas; other crime aspects were perceived as problems more often in metro areasTakeaways from the Comparisons of Crime-Related Items 30wResponse percentages on crime worry; Metro residents were more worried about crime, both generally and personally31wQ18a: How worried are you about crime in your community?Not worriedNot very worriedSomewhat worriedWorried Very worriedNot / Not very worriedWorried / Very worriedLow to High Worry RatioRural Poll 13.3 37.6 33.0 11.7 4.4 50.9 16.1 3.16Metro Poll 5.5 22.9 33.8 23.7 14.0 28.5 37.7 0.76Difference (Metro - Rural) -7.8 -14.7 0.8 12.0 9.6 -22.4 21.6 n/aQ18a: How worried are you about personally being a victim of crime?Not worriedNot very worriedSomewhat worriedWorried Very worriedNot / Not very worriedWorried / Very worriedLow to High Worry RatioRural Poll 17.5 45.0 25.7 8.9 2.9 62.5 11.8 5.30Metro Poll 9.8 36.0 31.1 15.2 7.9 45.8 23.1 1.98Difference (Metro - Rural) -7.7 -9.0 5.4 6.3 5.0 -16.7 11.3 n/aBeing worried/very worried about crime was twice as high in metro areas.Note: Differences between the polls for both questions were statistically significant at the 99% level of confidence. Metro residents more often said the crime situation worsened in the past few years; very few Nebraskans said it got better32wVarious crime types were perceived as larger problems for metro communities, with drugs being a problem in both areas33wCrime Occurrence as well as Actions Taken to Avert Crime were often Twice as High in Metro Areas34wItems Done in the Last 5 Years Because You Were Concerned about CrimePercent Saying Yes Metro Rural Metro‐RuralLimited places or times you'll go by yourself* 48.8 25.1 23.7Left residence lights on at night* 64.5 43.8 20.7Improved home security* 48.2 32.5 15.7Stayed inside house more often* 24.2 13.3 10.9Moved to different community or neighborhood* 11.6 6.8 4.8Avoided contact with people of another race* 9.7 6.0 3.7Enrolled in self-defense class* 7.3 3.9 3.4Have dog for protection 25.4 26.8 ‐1.4Have gun for protection* 22.9 30.5 ‐7.6"Have any of the following items happened during the past six months?"Percent Saying Yes Metro Rural Metro‐RuralSomeone trespassed on property 20.4 22.3 ‐1.9Items stolen from location outside of residence* 18.4 11.0 7.4Someone vandalized property* 13.3 8.2 5.1Items kept outside of home were stolen* 12.4 10.1 2.3Someone broke into home or another building* 6.6 3.9 2.7Found attempted break in* 5.9 4.1 1.8Vehicle was stolen or attempted stolen* 3.8 1.5 2.3* indicates items where the value was statistically different between the polls at the 95% level of confidenceTrespassing had highest occurrence in both polls and was only crime type not statistically different between the two areas.A sizeable portion of residents, especially in metros, are limiting activity due to crime.• The two polls have the same methodology and questions to allow for direct comparisons– Each poll independently developed weights to make their respondents represent their area’s overall population on key statistics like age• The data presented today are preliminary• The time series of rural poll items shows a “recovery in community perception” as the economy has rebounded• Rural residents’ satisfaction with several services and “things to do” has trended downward over time• Metro poll respondents were generally more optimistic and satisfied with services but also more worried about crime– Relatively more metro residents took various actions due to crime (improved home security, etc.); the polls give us specific percentages and detail the differences between the areasOverall Summary35w

Census Data Product Update

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Census Data Product Update

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