Shortcomings of Vitamin D-Based Model Simulations of Seasonal Influenza

Seasonal variation in serum concentration of the vitamin D metabolite 25(OH) vitamin D [25(OH)D], which contributes to host immune function, has been hypothesized to be the underlying source of observed influenza seasonality in temperate regions. The objective of this study was to determine whether observed 25(OH)D levels could be used to simulate observed influenza infection rates. Data of mean and variance in 25(OH)D serum levels by month were obtained from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study and used to parameterize an individual-based model of influenza transmission dynamics in two regions of the United States. Simulations were compared with observed daily influenza excess mortality data. Best-fitting simulations could reproduce the observed seasonal cycle of influenza; however, these best-fit simulations were shown to be highly sensitive to stochastic processes within the model and were unable consistently to reproduce observed seasonal patterns. In this respect the simulations with the vitamin D forced model were inferior to similar modeling efforts using absolute humidity and the school calendar as seasonal forcing variables. These model results indicate it is unlikely that seasonal variations in vitamin D levels principally determine the seasonality of influenza in temperate regions

Absolute Humidity and the Seasonal Onset of Influenza in the Continental United States

Here, the authors demonstrate that variations of absolute humidity explain both the onset of wintertime influenza transmission and the overarching seasonality of this pathogen in temperate regions

Vitamin D in the general population of young adults with autism in the Faroe Islands

Vitamin D deficiency has been proposed as a possible risk factor for developing autism spectrum disorder (ASD). 25-Hydroxyvitamin D3 (25(OH)D3) levels were examined in a cross-sectional population-based study in the Faroe Islands. The case group consisting of a total population cohort of 40 individuals with ASD (aged 15–24 years) had significantly lower 25(OH)D3 than their 62 typically-developing siblings and their 77 parents, and also significantly lower than 40 healthy age and gender matched comparisons. There was a trend for males having lower 25(OH)D3 than females. Effects of age, month/season of birth, IQ, various subcategories of ASD and Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule score were also investigated, however, no association was found. The very low 25(OH)D3 in the ASD group suggests some underlying pathogenic mechanism

Awareness of vitamin D deficiency among at-risk patients

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Vitamin D deficiency is a significant problem for a growing proportion of the UK population. Individuals with dark or covered skin are at particularly high risk due to ethno-cultural, environmental and genetic factors. We assessed the level of awareness of vitamin D deficiency among at-risk patients in order to identify groups most in need of education.</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>A cross-sectional survey using a piloted questionnaire was conducted among consecutive at-risk patients without a diagnosis of Vitamin D deficiency arriving at a large inner city general practice in the North West of England over a five day period. The survey was completed by 221 patients. The mean age was 35 years. 28% of them (n = 61) had never heard about vitamin D. Older patients (p = 0.003) were less likely to have heard about vitamin D. 54% of participants were unaware of the commonest symptoms of vitamin D deficiency. 34% did not expose their skin other than their face in the last one year, and 11% did not include vitamin D rich foods in their diet.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The majority of at-risk patients are aware of vitamin D; nevertheless, there is a significant lack of knowledge among older people, who have higher morbidity. A programme of targeted education of the at-risk population is recommended.</p

Global Patterns in Seasonal Activity of Influenza A/H3N2, A/H1N1, and B from 1997 to 2005: Viral Coexistence and Latitudinal Gradients

Despite a mass of research on the epidemiology of seasonal influenza, overall patterns of infection have not been fully described on broad geographic scales and for specific types and subtypes of the influenza virus. Here we provide a descriptive analysis of laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance data by type and subtype (A/H3N2, A/H1N1, and B) for 19 temperate countries in the Northern and Southern hemispheres from 1997 to 2005, compiled from a public database maintained by WHO (FluNet). Key findings include patterns of large scale co-occurrence of influenza type A and B, interhemispheric synchrony for subtype A/H3N2, and latitudinal gradients in epidemic timing for type A. These findings highlight the need for more countries to conduct year-round viral surveillance and report reliable incidence data at the type and subtype level, especially in the Tropics

A Prospective Randomized Controlled Trial of the Effects of Vitamin D Supplementation on Cardiovascular Disease Risk

Vitamin D (VitD) supplementation has been advocated for cardiovascular risk reduction; however, supporting data are sparse. The objective of this study was to determine whether VitD supplementation reduces cardiovascular risk. Subjects in this prospective, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of post-menopausal women with serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations >10 and <60 ng/mL were randomized to Vitamin D3 2500 IU or placebo, daily for 4 months. Primary endpoints were changes in brachial artery flow-mediated vasodilation (FMD), carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV), and aortic augmentation index (AIx). The 114 subjects were mean (standard deviation) 63.9 (3.0) years old with a 25-hydroxyvitamin D level of 31.3 (10.6) ng/mL. Low VitD (<30 ng/mL) was present in 47% and was associated with higher body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, glucose, CRP, and lower FMD (all p<0.05). After 4 months, 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels increased by 15.7 (9.3) ng/mL on vitamin D3 vs. −0.2 (6.1) ng/mL on placebo (p<0.001). There were no significant differences between groups in changes in FMD (0.3 [3.4] vs. 0.3 [2.6] %, p = 0.77), PWV (0.00 [1.06] vs. 0.05 [0.92] m/s, p = 0.65), AIx (2.7 [6.3] vs. 0.9 [5.6] %, p = 0.10), or CRP (0.3 [1.9] vs. 0.3 [4.2] mg/L, p = 0.97). Multivariable models showed no significant interactions between treatment group and low VitD status (<30 ng/mL) for changes in FMD (p = 0.65), PWV (p = 0.93), AIx (p = 0.97), or CRP (p = 0.26).In conclusion, VitD supplementation did not improve endothelial function, arterial stiffness, or inflammation. These observations do not support use of VitD supplementation to reduce cardiovascular disease risk

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Is Associated with Low Levels of Vitamin D

Introduction: COPD patients may be at increased risk for vitamin D (25(OH)D) deficiency, but risk factors for deficiency among COPD patients have not been extensively reported. Methods: Serum 25(OH)D levels were measured by liquid chromatography double mass spectrometry in subjects aged 40–76 years from Western Norway, including 433 COPD patients (GOLD stage II-IV) and 325 controls. Levels <20 ng/mL defined deficiency. Season, sex, age, body mass index (BMI), smoking, GOLD stage, exacerbation frequency, arterial oxygen tension (PaO2), respiratory symptoms, depression (CES-D score≥16), comorbidities (Charlson score), treatment for osteoporosis, use of inhaled steroids, and total white blood count were examined for associations with 25(OH)D in both linear and logistic regression models. Results: COPD patients had an increased risk for vitamin D deficiency compared to controls after adjustment for seasonality, age, smoking and BMI. Variables associated with lower 25(OH)D levels in COPD patients were obesity ( = −6.63), current smoking ( = −4.02), GOLD stage III- IV ( = −4.71, = −5.64), and depression ( = −3.29). Summertime decreased the risk of vitamin D deficiency (OR = 0.22). Conclusion: COPD was associated with an increased risk of vitamin D deficiency, and important disease characteristics were significantly related to 25(OH)D levels

Introduction of oral vitamin D supplementation and the rise of the allergy pandemic

The history of the allergy pandemic is well documented, enabling us to put the vitamin D hypothesis into its historical context. The purpose of this study is to compare the prevalence of rickets, vitamin D supply, and allergy prevalence at 50-year intervals by means of a retrospective analysis of the literature since 1880

Epidemiology and seasonality of respiratory viral infections in hospitalized children in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia: a retrospective study of 27 years

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Viral respiratory tract infections (RTI) are relatively understudied in Southeast Asian tropical countries. In temperate countries, seasonal activity of respiratory viruses has been reported, particularly in association with temperature, while inconsistent correlation of respiratory viral activity with humidity and rain is found in tropical countries. A retrospective study was performed from 1982-2008 to investigate the viral etiology of children (≤ 5 years old) admitted with RTI in a tertiary hospital in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 10269 respiratory samples from all children ≤ 5 years old received at the hospital's diagnostic virology laboratory between 1982-2008 were included in the study. Immunofluorescence staining (for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza A and B, parainfluenza types 1-3, and adenovirus) and virus isolation were performed. The yearly hospitalization rates and annual patterns of laboratory-confirmed viral RTIs were determined. Univariate ANOVA was used to analyse the demographic parameters of cases. Multiple regression and Spearman's rank correlation were used to analyse the correlation between RSV cases and meteorological parameters.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 2708 cases were laboratory-confirmed using immunofluorescence assays and viral cultures, with the most commonly detected being RSV (1913, 70.6%), parainfluenza viruses (357, 13.2%), influenza viruses (297, 11.0%), and adenovirus (141, 5.2%). Children infected with RSV were significantly younger, and children infected with influenza viruses were significantly older. The four main viruses caused disease throughout the year, with a seasonal peak observed for RSV in September-December. Monthly RSV cases were directly correlated with rain days, and inversely correlated with relative humidity and temperature.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Viral RTIs, particularly due to RSV, are commonly detected in respiratory samples from hospitalized children in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. As in temperate countries, RSV infection in tropical Malaysia also caused seasonal yearly epidemics, and this has implications for prophylaxis and vaccination programmes.</p

Can Interactions between Timing of Vaccine-Altered Influenza Pandemic Waves and Seasonality in Influenza Complications Lead to More Severe Outcomes?

Vaccination can delay the peak of a pandemic influenza wave by reducing the number of individuals initially susceptible to influenza infection. Emerging evidence indicates that susceptibility to severe secondary bacterial infections following a primary influenza infection may vary seasonally, with peak susceptibility occurring in winter. Taken together, these two observations suggest that vaccinating to prevent a fall pandemic wave might delay it long enough to inadvertently increase influenza infections in winter, when primary influenza infection is more likely to cause severe outcomes. This could potentially cause a net increase in severe outcomes. Most pandemic models implicitly assume that the probability of severe outcomes does not vary seasonally and hence cannot capture this effect. Here we show that the probability of intensive care unit (ICU) admission per influenza infection in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic followed a seasonal pattern. We combine this with an influenza transmission model to investigate conditions under which a vaccination program could inadvertently shift influenza susceptibility to months where the risk of ICU admission due to influenza is higher. We find that vaccination in advance of a fall pandemic wave can actually increase the number of ICU admissions in situations where antigenic drift is sufficiently rapid or where importation of a cross-reactive strain is possible. Moreover, this effect is stronger for vaccination programs that prevent more primary influenza infections. Sensitivity analysis indicates several mechanisms that may cause this effect. We also find that the predicted number of ICU admissions changes dramatically depending on whether the probability of ICU admission varies seasonally, or whether it is held constant. These results suggest that pandemic planning should explore the potential interactions between seasonally varying susceptibility to severe influenza outcomes and the timing of vaccine-altered pandemic influenza waves