Improving supplementary feeding in species conservation

Supplementary feeding is often a knee-jerk reaction to population declines, and its application is not critically evaluated, leading to polarized views among managers on its usefulness. Here, we advocate a more strategic approach to supplementary feeding so that the choice to use it is clearly justified over, or in combination with, other management actions and the predicted consequences are then critically assessed following implementation. We propose combining methods from a set of specialist disciplines that will allow critical evaluation of the need, benefit, and risks of food supplementation. Through the use of nutritional ecology, population ecology, and structured decision making, conservation managers can make better choices about what and how to feed by estimating consequences on population recovery across a range of possible actions. This structured approach also informs targeted monitoring and more clearly allows supplementary feeding to be integrated in recovery plans and reduces the risk of inefficient decisions. In New Zealand, managers of the endangered Hihi (Notiomystis cincta) often rely on supplementary feeding to support reintroduced populations. On Kapiti island the reintroduced Hihi population has responded well to food supplementation, but the logistics of providing an increasing demand recently outstretched management capacity. To decide whether and how the feeding regime should be revised, managers used a structured decision making approach informed by population responses to alternative feeding regimes. The decision was made to reduce the spatial distribution of feeders and invest saved time in increasing volume of food delivered into a smaller core area. The approach used allowed a transparent and defendable management decision in regard to supplementary feeding, reflecting the multiple objectives of managers and their priorities

Stochastic dominance to account for uncertainty and risk in conservation decisions

Practical conservation normally requires making decisions in the face of uncertainty. Our attitude toward that uncertainty, and the risks it entails, shape the way conservation decisions are made. Stochastic dominance (SD), a method more commonly used in economics, can be used to rank alternative conservation actions by comparing the probability distributions of their outcomes, making progressive simplified assumptions about the preferences of decision makers. Here, we illustrate the application of SD to conservation decisions using the recovery plan for an endangered frog species in Australia as a case study. Stochastic dominance is simple and intuitively appealing for conservation decisions; its broader application may encourage conservation decision makers to consider probabilistic uncertainty in light of their preferences, which may otherwise be difficult to recognize and assess transparently. A better treatment of attitudes towards uncertainty and risk may help ensure rational decision making in conservation and remove potential causes of stakeholder conflict

Layer Features of the Lattice Gas Model for Self-Organized Criticality

A layer-by-layer description of the asymmetric lattice gas model for 1/f-noise suggested by Jensen [Phys. Rev. Lett. 64, 3103 (1990)] is presented. The power spectra of the lattice layers in the direction perpendicular to the particle flux is studied in order to understand how the white noise at the input boundary evolves, on the average, into 1/f-noise for the system. The effects of high boundary drive and uniform driving force on the power spectrum of the total number of diffusing particles are considered. In the case of nearest-neighbor particle interactions, high statistics simulation results show that the power spectra of single lattice layers are characterized by different $\beta_x$ exponents such that $\beta_x \to 1.9$ as one approaches the outer boundary.Comment: LaTeX, figures upon reques

Stochastics theory of log-periodic patterns

We introduce an analytical model based on birth-death clustering processes to help understanding the empirical log-periodic corrections to power-law scaling and the finite-time singularity as reported in several domains including rupture, earthquakes, world population and financial systems. In our stochastics theory log-periodicities are a consequence of transient clusters induced by an entropy-like term that may reflect the amount of cooperative information carried by the state of a large system of different species. The clustering completion rates for the system are assumed to be given by a simple linear death process. The singularity at t_{o} is derived in terms of birth-death clustering coefficients.Comment: LaTeX, 1 ps figure - To appear J. Phys. A: Math & Ge

Spontaneous circadian rhythms in a cold-Adapted natural isolate of Aureobasidium pullulans

Indexación: Scopus.Circadian systems enable organisms to synchronize their physiology to daily and seasonal environmental changes relying on endogenous pacemakers that oscillate with a period close to 24 h even in the absence of external timing cues. The oscillations are achieved by intracellular transcriptional/translational feedback loops thoroughly characterized for many organisms, but still little is known about the presence and characteristics of circadian clocks in fungi other than Neurospora crassa. We sought to characterize the circadian system of a natural isolate of Aureobasidium pullulans, a cold-Adapted yeast bearing great biotechnological potential. A. pullulans formed daily concentric rings that were synchronized by light/dark cycles and were also formed in constant darkness with a period of 24.5 h. Moreover, these rhythms were temperature compensated, as evidenced by experiments conducted at temperatures as low as 10 °C. Finally, the expression of clock-essential genes, frequency, white collar-1, white collar-2 and vivid was confirmed. In summary, our results indicate the existence of a functional circadian clock in A. pullulans, capable of sustaining rhythms at very low temperatures and, based on the presence of conserved clock-gene homologues, suggest a molecular and functional relationship to well-described circadian systems.https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-14085-

Assessing the risks of changing ongoing management of endangered species

Recovery programmes for endangered species can become increasingly demanding over time, but managers may be reluctant to change ongoing actions that are believed to be assisting recovery. We used a quantitative risk assessment to choose support strategies for a reintroduced population of Mauritius olive white‐eyes Zosterops chloronothos. Facing increasing costs, managers considered changing the ongoing supplementary feeding strategy, but at the same time worried this could jeopardize the observed positive population trend. We used a feeding experiment to compare the current feeding regime and a cheaper alternative (a simple sugar/water mix). Results suggested the cheaper alternative would only marginally reduce population vital rates. We assessed the influence of these results and the associated uncertainty on population recovery and management costs using two decision‐analytic criteria, incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio and stochastic dominance. The new feeding regime was expected to be, on average, more cost‐effective than the status quo. Moreover, even negative outcomes would only likely mean a slower growing population, not a declining one, whereas not changing feeding regime actually entailed greater risk. Because shifting from the current regime to a cheaper sugar/water mixture was both a risk‐averse and a cost‐effective choice, we decided to implement this change. Four years after the experiment, the population continues to grow and costs have been contained, matching predictions almost exactly. In this case, the field experiment provided useful empirical information about prospective actions; the risk analysis then helped us understand the real implications of changing the feeding regime. We encourage managers of recovery plans facing a similar situation to explicitly recognize trade‐offs and risk aversion, and address them by combining targeted research and formal decision analysis

Finite-Size Scaling in Two-dimensional Continuum Percolation Models

We test the universal finite-size scaling of the cluster mass order parameter in two-dimensional (2D) isotropic and directed continuum percolation models below the percolation threshold by computer simulations. We found that the simulation data in the 2D continuum models obey the same scaling expression of mass M to sample size L as generally accepted for isotropic lattice problems, but with a positive sign of the slope in the ln-ln plot of M versus L. Another interesting aspect of the finite-size 2D models is also suggested by plotting the normalized mass in 2D continuum and lattice bond percolation models, versus an effective percolation parameter, independently of the system structure (i.e. lattice or continuum) and of the possible directions allowed for percolation (i.e. isotropic or directed) in regions close to the percolation thresholds. Our study is the first attempt to map the scaling behaviour of the mass for both lattice and continuum model systems into one curve.Comment: 9 pages, Revtex, 2 PostScript figure

Multifractality in Time Series

We apply the concepts of multifractal physics to financial time series in order to characterize the onset of crash for the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index x(t). It is found that within the framework of multifractality, the "analogous" specific heat of the S&P500 discrete price index displays a shoulder to the right of the main peak for low values of time lags. On decreasing T, the presence of the shoulder is a consequence of the peaked, temporal x(t+T)-x(t) fluctuations in this regime. For large time lags (T>80), we have found that C_{q} displays typical features of a classical phase transition at a critical point. An example of such dynamic phase transition in a simple economic model system, based on a mapping with multifractality phenomena in random multiplicative processes, is also presented by applying former results obtained with a continuous probability theory for describing scaling measures.Comment: 22 pages, Revtex, 4 ps figures - To appear J. Phys. A (2000

Model for Anisotropic Directed Percolation

We propose a simulation model to study the properties of directed percolation in two-dimensional (2D) anisotropic random media. The degree of anisotropy in the model is given by the ratio $\mu$ between the axes of a semi-ellipse enclosing the bonds that promote percolation in one direction. At percolation, this simple model shows that the average number of bonds per site in 2D is an invariant equal to 2.8 independently of $\mu$. This result suggests that Sinai's theorem proposed originally for isotropic percolation is also valid for anisotropic directed percolation problems. The new invariant also yields a constant fractal dimension $D_{f} \sim 1.71$ for all $\mu$, which is the same value found in isotropic directed percolation (i.e., $\mu = 1$).Comment: RevTeX, 9 pages, 3 figures. To appear in Phys.Rev.