Study of the dollar-euro exchange rate

In this paper we broadly describe the changes in the dollar-euro exchange rate from the time the euro came into effect at the beginning of 1999 until the end of 2005, using daily data. We show how movements in this exchange rate can be presented in different ways, depending on the time scale we use. First, if we focus on periods of more than six months, the changes in the dollar-euro rate can be described using a succession of linear trends. Superimposed on this trend line are cycles lasting from one to three months. Lastly, on a daily scale, the exchange rate behavior is virtually unpredictable, very close to what econometricians call white noise. These patterns are not exclusive to the dollar-euro rate, but are shared by the dollar exchange rates of most free-floating currencies. Taking the exchange value of the dollar against a basket of currencies used by the Federal Reserve, we show that the patterns we observe may be attributed to changes in the "intrinsic" value of the dollar.Exchange rate; volatility; trade weighted exchange index; random walk;

Some results in representable banach spaces

Some results are presented, concerning a class of Banach spaces introduced by G. Godefroy and M. Talagrand, the representable Banach spaces. The main aspects considered here are the stability in forming tensor products, and the topological properties of the weak* dual unitball

Conditions of angelic type in function spaces

This paper deals with a class of topological spaces in which α-compactness and compactness coincide and the tightness of a compact subset is less or equal than α, a being an infinite cardinal number. This class is a natural extension of the class of strictly angelic spaces, introduced by W . Govaerts . Sufficient conditions are given for a space of continuous functions to belong to this class, and some results on locally convex spaces are obtained as an application

Infratopological bornologies and Mackey-convergence of series

In this paper some aspects of ínfratopological bornologies are discussed. First, it is shown that bornologies with countable basis are infratopological. Second, it is shown that the convergence of series presents some pathologies beyond this class

Limited partners' perceptions of the Central Eastern European venture capital and private equity market

Growth expectations and institutional settings in Central Eastern Europe are assumed to be favorable for the establishment of a vibrant Venture Capital and Private Equity market. Despite this, there is a lack of risk capital. We examine the obstacles to institutional investments in the region through a questionnaire addressed to (potential) Limited Partners world-wide. The respondents provide information about their perceptions of the region. The protection of property rights is the dominant concern, followed by social criteria, such as the belief in the management quality of local people, and the lacking size and liquidity of the Central Eastern European capital markets. However, Limited Partners regard the growth expectations as attractive, and those with exposure in Central Eastern Europe are satisfied with the historical risk and return ratio, they have a good knowledge of the region, are attracted by other emerging regions, and they appreciate the region's entrepreneurial opportunities and the local General Partners. Overall, the region is ranked very favorable compared to other emerging regions, and especially with respect to its economic and entrepreneurial activity.Venture Capital; Private Equity; International Asset Allocation; Institutional Investors;

Conditions of angelic type in function spaces

This paper deals with a class of topological spaces in which α-compactness and compactness coincide and the tightness of a compact subset is less or equal than α, a being an infinite cardinal number. This class is a natural extension of the class of strictly angelic spaces, introduced by W . Govaerts . Sufficient conditions are given for a space of continuous functions to belong to this class, and some results on locally convex spaces are obtained as an application

Allocation determinants of institutional investments in venture capital and private equity limited partnerships in Central Eastern Europe

Growth expectations and institutional settings are favorable in CEE to establish a vibrant VC/PE market. However, there is lacking supply of risk capital. We address the obstacles for institutional investments in the region via a questionnaire addressed to (potential) Limited Partners worldwide. The respondents provide information about their criteria for international asset allocation. The protection of property rights is the dominant concern, followed by the need to find local quality General Partners and by the management quality and skills of local entrepreneurs. Further, the expected deal flow plays an important role for the allocation process, while the investors fear bribing and corruption. CEE is regarded as very attractive, especially the economic and entrepreneurial activity. However, the investors are not comfortable there with the protection of their claims.Venture capital; Private equity; International asset allocation; Institutional investors;

Evolución de la inflación en España.

El objetivo de este documento es presentar diversos modelos que pueden ayudar a entender la evolución de la inflación en España, así como a hacer predicciones de la inflación a medio plazo. El estudio se basa en un análisis estadístico-econométrico de los datos de la inflación publicados por el Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE). Entre los distintos modelos que se examinan, se escogen los que puedan resultar más útiles para entender la inflación. En este trabajo se distinguen los modelos univariantes, en los que sólo se usan los datos de la inflación, de los multivariantes, que usan, además, datos de otras variables macroeconómicas, como, por ejemplo, el producto interior bruto o la tasa de desempleo. Se dividen los modelos univariantes en dos grupos. Los del primer grupo serán modelos sencillos de regresión, y los del segundo, modelos de memoria larga. También se evalúa un modelo por su capacidad de predecir la inflación del año siguiente. Para ello, aplicando el modelo a la serie de inflación que acaba en diciembre de 1988, predecimos la tasa de inflación anual de 1989. Lo mismo hacemos para predecir la inflación de 1990, 1991, etc., hasta la del año 2000, usando siempre una serie que llega hasta el mes de diciembre del año anterior a aquel cuya inflación queremos predecir. Después, restamos, de la inflación predicha por el modelo, la inflación real, obteniendo el error de previsión. La calidad de un modelo la evaluamos mediante el error cuadrático medio, que es la media de los cuadrados de los errores de predicción obtenidos para los años 1989-2000. Algunos de los modelos que estudiamos usan datos mensuales, otros trimestrales, y en alguna ocasión, anuales. En cualquier caso, estamos interesados en la predicción de la tasa anual de inflación a un año vista, en el momento que se conoce la tasa de inflación mensual de diciembre del año anterior.inflacion;