Evaluation of sale forecasting methods : a case study

This study investigated forecasting accuracy for sales. Three quantitative and one qualitative forecasting techniques were tested and two combinational models were generated and evaluated. Three data sets, obtained from a market leader were used to forecast sales. The series represented monthly sales for three years. Three accuracy levels were employed in this study, these are: Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Results indicated that the quantitative method outperformed the qualitative method; that combining two or more quantitative methods provide better forecasts than the individual methods; and that combining quantitative and qualitative methods provide more accurate forecasts than the individual qualitative method. Future studies should focus on the reasons for the differences in accuracy achieved by the different forecasting models. In addition, more quantitative and qualitative methods should be investigated using several companies from different industries

The status of alien bamboos in South Africa

CITATION: Canavan, S. et al. 2021. The status of alien bamboos in South Africa. South African Journal of Botany, 138:33-40. doi:10.1016/j.sajb.2020.11.027.The original publication is available at https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/south-african-journal-of-botanyThe growing interest in commercial cultivation of bamboos (Poaceae subfamily Bambusoideae) has led to the introduction of new alien species into South Africa. The rate at which bamboos are being planted in South Africa is a cause for concern because of the impacts of bamboo invasions in other parts of the world. To understand the risks associated with new introductions and new plantings, we assess the outcomes of past introductions of bamboos into South Africa. To this end we: (1) produce an inventory of alien bamboo taxa; (2) assess the distribution of bamboos; (3) determine the rate of spread of bamboo at a site with a high density of naturalised stands; and (4) evaluate the current regulatory status of alien bamboos in South Africa. We used a combination of expert opinion, literature, historical records of populations, and public participation to produce a species list and locate populations of alien bamboos. We also attempted to confirm species identities using DNA barcoding. We found that 28 currently-accepted species of bamboo have been recorded in South Africa. However, we have little confidence in this estimate, as 20 of the species could not be confirmed or identified as present in the country. Bamboos are an inherently challenging group to identify using vegetative material, and DNA barcoding was inconclusive. The distribution of bamboos across the country varied with the type or lineage (e.g. herbaceous, tropical or temperate) and the source of information (e.g. herbarium records, in-field observation or public contribution). Although alien bamboos are naturalised at several sites, we found no large invasive stands nor evidence of widespread negative environmental impacts. Nonetheless, we recommend caution regarding future introductions of bamboos for commercial cultivation, as the nature of the plantings will likely differ from the historical situation in both the location, configuration, and the scale of cultivation, and as new species are likely to be introduced. We propose several changes to the current listing of bamboo taxa in national legislation pertaining to alien and invasive species.https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0254629920311868?via%3DihubPublisher’s versio

Overcoming biodiversity blindness: Secondary data in primary citizen science observations

1. In the face of the global biodiversity crisis, collecting comprehensive data and making the best use of existing data are becoming increasingly important to understand patterns and drivers of environmental and biological phenomena at different scales. 2. Here we address the concept of secondary data, which refers to additional information unintentionally captured in species records, especially in multimedia-based citizen science reports. We argue that secondary data can provide a wealth of ecologically relevant information, the utilisation of which can enhance our understanding of traits and interactions among individual organisms, populations and biodiversity dynamics in general. 3. We explore the possibilities offered by secondary data and describe their main types and sources. An overview of research in this field provides a synthesis of the results already achieved using secondary data and different approaches to information extraction. 4. Finally, we discuss challenges to the widespread use of secondary data, such as biases, licensing issues, use of metadata and lack of awareness of this trove of data due to a missing common terminology, as well as possible solutions to overcome these barriers. 5. Although the exploration and use of secondary data is only emerging, the many opportunities identified show how these data can enrich biodiversity research and monitoring

Identifying invasive species threats, pathways, and impacts to improve biosecurity

Managing invasive species with prevention and early-detection strategies can avert severe ecological and economic impacts. Horizon scanning, an evidence-based process combining risk screening and consensus building to identify threats, has become a valuable tool for prioritizing invasive species management and prevention. We assembled a working group of experts from academic, government, and nonprofit agencies and organizations, and conducted a multi-taxa horizon scan for Florida, USA, the first of its kind in North America. Our primary objectives were to identify high-risk species and their introduction pathways, to detail the magnitude and mechanism of potential impacts, and, more broadly, to demonstrate the utility of horizon scanning. As a means to facilitate future horizon scans, we document the process used to generate the list of taxa for screening. We evaluated 460 taxa for their potential to arrive, establish, and cause negative ecological and socioeconomic impacts, and identified 40 potential invaders, including alewife, zebra mussel, crab-eating macaque, and red swamp crayfish. Vertebrates and aquatic invertebrates posed the greatest invasion threat, over half of the high-risk taxa were omnivores, and there was high confidence in the scoring of high-risk taxa. Common arrival pathways were ballast water, biofouling of vessels, and escape from the pet/aquarium/horticulture trade. Competition, predation, and damage to agriculture/forestry/aquaculture were common impact mechanisms. We recommend full risk analysis for the high-risk taxa; increased surveillance at Florida's ports, state borders, and high-risk pathways; and periodic review and revision of the list. Few horizon scans detail the comprehensive methodology (including list-building), certainty estimates for all scoring categories and the final score, detailed pathways, and the magnitude and mechanism of impact. Providing this information can further inform prevention efforts and can be efficiently replicated in other regions. Moreover, harmonizing methodology can facilitate data sharing and enhance interpretation of results for stakeholders and the general public.</p

Stakeholders' views on the global guidelines for the sustainable use of non‐native trees

A large number of non‐native trees (NNTs) have been introduced globally and widely planted, contributing significantly to the world's economy. Although some of these species present a limited risk of spreading beyond their planting sites, a growing number of NNTs are spreading and becoming invasive leading to diverse negative impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem functions and human well‐being. To help minimize the negative impacts and maximize the economic benefits of NNTs, Brundu et al. developed eight guidelines for the sustainable use of NNTs globally—the Global Guidelines for the Use of NNTs (GG‐NNTs). Here, we used an online survey to assess perceptions of key stakeholders towards NNTs, and explore their knowledge of and compliance with the GG‐NNTs. Our results show that stakeholders are generally aware that NNTs can provide benefits and cause negative impacts, often simultaneously and they consider that their organization complies with existing regulations and voluntary agreements concerning NNTs. However, they are not aware of or do not apply most of the eight recommendations included in the GG‐NNTs. We conclude that effectively managing invasions linked to NNTs requires both more communication efforts using an array of channels for improving stakeholder awareness and implementation of simple measures to reduce NNT impacts (e.g. via GG‐NNTs), and a deeper understanding of the barriers and reluctance of stakeholders to manage NNT invasions. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog

At the coalface and the cutting edge: general practitioners’ accounts of the rewards of engaging with HIV medicine

The interviews we conducted with GPs suggest that an engagement with HIV medicine enables clinicians to develop strong and long-term relationships with and expertise about the care needs of people living with HIV ‘at the coalface’, while also feeling connected with a broader network of medical practitioners and other professionals concerned with and contributing to the ever-changing world of science: ‘the cutting edge’. The general practice HIV prescriber is being modelled here as the interface between these two worlds, offering a rewarding opportunity for general practitioners to feel intimately connected to both community needs and scientific change