Investment and Instability

Although recent research has repeatedly found a negative association between investment and political instability, the existence and direction of causality between these two variables has not yet been investigated. This paper empirically tests for a causal and negative long-run relationship between political instability to investment. It finds that there is a robust causal relation from instability to investment, and that it is positive. In other words, an increase in political instability Granger causes an increase in investment. We identify three different theories that can explain this result.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39721/3/wp337.pd

Who is Afraid of Political Instability?

An unstable macroeconomic environment is often regarded as detrimental to economic growth. Among the sources contributing to such instability, the literature has assigned most of the blame to political issues. This paper empirically tests for a causal and negative long-term relation between political instability and economic growth, but finds no evidence of such a relationship. Sensitivity analysis indicates that there is a contemporaneous negative relationship and that, in the long run and ignoring institutional factors, the Sub-Saharan Africa group plays the determining role in steering this relationship into causal and negative.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39710/3/wp326.pd

Investment and Instability

Although recent research has repeatedly found a negative association between investment and political instability, the existence and direction of causality between these two variables has not yet been investigated. This paper empirically tests for a causal and negative long-run relationship between political instability to investment. It finds that there is a robust causal relation from instability to investment, and that it is positive. In other words, an increase in political instability Granger causes an increase in investment. We identify three different theories that can explain this result.political instability, aggragate investment, Granger causality

Who is Afraid of Political Instability?

An unstable macroeconomic environment is often regarded as detrimental to economic growth. Among the sources contributing to such instability, the literature has assigned most of the blame to political issues. This paper empirically tests for a causal and negative long-term relation between political instability and economic growth, but finds no evidence of such a relationship. Sensitivity analysis indicates that there is a contemporaneous negative relationship and that, in the long run and ignoring institutional factors, the Sub-Saharan Africa group plays the determining role in steering this relationship into causal and negative.economic growth, political instability

WHO IS AFRAID OF POLITICAL INSTABILITY?

An unstable macroeconomic environment is often regarded as detrimental to economic growth. Among the sources contributing to such instability, much of the blame has been assigned to political issues. This paper empirically tests for a causal and negative long-run relationship between political instability and economic growth but finds no such relationship. Sensitivity analysis, however, indicates that there is indeed a short-run negative relationship and, that in the long-run and ignoring institutional factors, the group of African countries is the driving force. In other words, we suspect that excluding the African countries from their samples, results of a negative relation between SPI and growth would founder.Economic growth, Political instability, Granger causality

Investment and Instability

Although recet research has repeatedly found a negative association between investment and socio-political instability (SPI), the existence and direction of causality between these two variables has not yet been investigated. We construct an index of SPI for non-overlaping five-years periods between 1960 and 1995 for a sample of 98 developing countries. We use the Granger causality framework and report Anderson-Hsiao- Arellano instrumental variable estimates. Our main finding is that, for the full sample, there is a robust causal relationship going from SPI to investment, and it is positive. In other words, we find three reasons may explain this result: one is that SPI delays investment, another is that it destroys at least part of the capital stock, and the third is that SPI causes changes in government and in government policies that are benefical in the long run.Political instability, Aggregate investment, Granger causality

Finding the Higgs Boson through Supersymmetry

The study of displaced vertices containing two b--jets may provide a double discovery at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC): we show how it may not only reveal evidence for supersymmetry, but also provide a way to uncover the Higgs boson necessary in the formulation of the electroweak theory in a large region of the parameter space. We quantify this explicitly using the simplest minimal supergravity model with bilinear breaking of R-parity, which accounts for the observed pattern of neutrino masses and mixings seen in neutrino oscillation experiments.Comment: 7 pages, 7 figures. Final version to appear at PRD. Discussion and results were enlarge

Probing Neutrino Oscillations in Supersymmetric Models at the Large Hadron Collider

The lightest supersymmetric particle may decay with branching ratios that correlate with neutrino oscillation parameters. In this case the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC) has the potential to probe the atmospheric neutrino mixing angle with sensitivity competitive to its low-energy determination by underground experiments. Under realistic detection assumptions, we identify the necessary conditions for the experiments at CERN's LHC to probe the simplest scenario for neutrino masses induced by minimal supergravity with bilinear R parity violation.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures. To appear in Physical Review