Is subarctic forest advance able to keep pace with climate change?

Recent climate warming and scenarios for further warming have led to expectations of rapid movement of ecological boundaries. Here we focus on the circumarctic forest-tundra ecotone (FTE), which represents an important bioclimatic zone with feedbacks from forest advance and corresponding tundra disappearance (up to 50% loss predicted this century) driving widespread ecological and climatic changes. We address FTE advance and climate history relations over the 20th century, using FTE response data from 151 sites across the circumarctic area and site-specific climate data. Specifically, we investigate spatial uniformity of FTE advance, statistical associations with 20th century climate trends, and whether advance rates match climate change velocities (CCVs). Study sites diverged into four regions (Eastern Canada; Central and Western Canada and Alaska; Siberia; and Western Eurasia) based on their climate history, although all were characterized by similar qualitative patterns of behaviour (with about half of the sites showing advancing behaviour). The main associations between climate trend variables and behaviour indicate the importance of precipitation rather than temperature for both qualitative and quantitative behaviours, and the importance of non-growing season as well as growing season months. Poleward latitudinal advance rates differed significantly among regions, being smallest in Eastern Canada (~10 m/year) and largest in Western Eurasia (~100 m/year). These rates were 1-2 orders of magnitude smaller than expected if vegetation distribution remained in equilibrium with climate. The many biotic and abiotic factors influencing FTE behaviour make poleward advance rates matching predicted 21st century CCVs (~103 -104  m/year) unlikely. The lack of empirical evidence for swift forest relocation and the discrepancy between CCV and FTE response contradict equilibrium model-based assumptions and warrant caution when assessing global-change-related biotic and abiotic implications, including land-atmosphere feedbacks and carbon sequestration.Funding was provided by the Norwegian Research Council (grants 176065/S30, 185023/S50, 160022/F40 and 244557/RI), the Government of Canada Program for International Polar Year, the US National Science Foundation, and the University of Cambridge

Methane Production Pathway Regulated Proximally by Substrate Availability and Distally by Temperature in a High-Latitude Mire Complex

Projected 21st century changes in high-latitude climate are expected to have significant impacts on permafrost thaw, which could cause substantial increases in emissions to the atmosphere of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4, which has a global warming potential 28 times larger than CO2 over a 100-year horizon). However, predicted CH4 emission rates are very uncertain due to difficulties in modeling complex interactions among hydrological, thermal, biogeochemical, and plant processes. Methanogenic production pathways (i.e., acetoclastic [AM] and hydrogenotrophic [HM]) and the magnitude of CH4 emissions may both change as permafrost thaws, but a mechanistic analysis of controls on such shifts in CH4 dynamics is lacking. In this study, we reproduced observed shifts in CH4 emissions and production pathways with a comprehensive biogeochemical model (ecosys) at the Stordalen Mire in subarctic Sweden. Our results demonstrate that soil temperature changes differently affect AM and HM substrate availability, which regulates magnitudes of AM, HM, and thereby net CH4 emissions. We predict very large landscape-scale, vertical, and temporal variations in the modeled HM fraction, highlighting that measurement strategies for metrics that compare CH4 production pathways could benefit from model informed scale of temporal and spatial variance. Finally, our findings suggest that the warming and wetting trends projected in northern peatlands could enhance peatland AM fraction and CH4 emissions even without further permafrost degradation

Institutional and policy issues in the management of fisheries and coastal resources in Cambodia

Fishery management, Governments, Fishery policies, Resource conservation, Resource management, Cambodia,

Beyond Poiseuille: Preservation Fluid Flow in an Experimental Model

Poiseuille’s equation describes the relationship between fluid viscosity, pressure, tubing diameter, and flow, yet it is not known if cold organ perfusion systems follow this equation. We investigated these relationships in an ex vivo model and aimed to offer some rationale for equipment selection. Increasing the cannula size from 14 to 20 Fr increased flow rate by a mean (SD) of 13 (12)%. Marshall’s hyperosmolar citrate was three times less viscous than UW solution, but flows were only 45% faster. Doubling the bag pressure led to a mean (SD) flow rate increase of only 19 (13)%, not twice the rate. When external pressure devices were used, 100 mmHg of continuous pressure increased flow by a mean (SD) of 43 (17)% when compared to the same pressure applied initially only. Poiseuille’s equation was not followed; this is most likely due to “slipping” of preservation fluid within the plastic tubing. Cannula size made little difference over the ranges examined; flows are primarily determined by bag pressure and fluid viscosity. External infusor devices require continuous pressurisation to deliver high flow. Future studies examining the impact of perfusion variables on graft outcomes should include detailed equipment descriptions

Fatigue testing of a proximal femoral hip component

Published versio

The Johnson-Segalman model with a diffusion term in Couette flow

We study the Johnson-Segalman (JS) model as a paradigm for some complex fluids which are observed to phase separate, or ``shear-band'' in flow. We analyze the behavior of this model in cylindrical Couette flow and demonstrate the history dependence inherent in the local JS model. We add a simple gradient term to the stress dynamics and demonstrate how this term breaks the degeneracy of the local model and prescribes a much smaller (discrete, rather than continuous) set of banded steady state solutions. We investigate some of the effects of the curvature of Couette flow on the observable steady state behavior and kinetics, and discuss some of the implications for metastability.Comment: 14 pp, to be published in Journal of Rheolog

Coexistence and Phase Separation in Sheared Complex Fluids

We demonstrate how to construct dynamic phase diagrams for complex fluids that undergo transitions under flow, in which the conserved composition variable and the broken-symmetry order parameter (nematic, smectic, crystalline, etc.) are coupled to shear rate. Our construction relies on a selection criterion, the existence of a steady interface connecting two stable homogeneous states. We use the (generalized) Doi model of lyotropic nematic liquid crystals as a model system, but the method can be easily applied to other systems, provided non-local effects are included.Comment: 4 pages REVTEX, 5 figures using epsf macros. To appear in Physical Review E (Rapid Communications

Transporting an evidence-based program to a new country: a narrative description and analysis of pre-implementation adaptation

There is a pressing need to prevent and address youth crime and violence owing to its prevalence, harms and cost to society. Interventions with proven effectiveness in doing this exist. Adopting and adapting them in new contexts is potentially cost-effective. However, more research is needed into how to make adaptations that enhance intervention implementation, effectiveness and maintenance in new settings. This article reports the pre-implementation adaptation work involved in transporting Becoming a Man (BAM) from the US to the UK. BAM is a selective school-based youth development program for 12–18 year-old boys that aims to improve school engagement and reduce interactions with the criminal justice system. We describe the nature of and rationale for adaptations and identify learning for future adaptation efforts. An adaptation team comprising the intervention developers, new providers and the evaluators met weekly for 10 weeks, applying a structured, pragmatic and evidence-informed approach to adapt the BAM curriculum and implementation process. Changes were informed by documentary analysis, group-based discussions and site visits. The group agreed 27 changes to the content of 17/30 lessons, at both surface (e.g., cultural references) and deep (key mechanisms or concepts) levels. Of 28 contextual factors considered, 15 discrepancies between the US and UK were identified and resolved (e.g., differences in staffing arrangements). Strengths of the process were the blend of expertise on the adaptation team in the program and local context, and constant reference to and ongoing refinement of the program theory of change. Limitations included the lack of involvement of school staff or students. Further research is needed into potential conflicts between stakeholder perspectives during adaptation and whose views to prioritise and when