58 research outputs found

    Does the Effectiveness of Control Measures Depend on the Influenza Pandemic Profile?

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    BACKGROUND: Although strategies to contain influenza pandemics are well studied, the characterization and the implications of different geographical and temporal diffusion patterns of the pandemic have been given less attention. METHODOLOGY/MAIN FINDINGS: Using a well-documented metapopulation model incorporating air travel between 52 major world cities, we identified potential influenza pandemic diffusion profiles and examined how the impact of interventions might be affected by this heterogeneity. Clustering methods applied to a set of pandemic simulations, characterized by seven parameters related to the conditions of emergence that were varied following Latin hypercube sampling, were used to identify six pandemic profiles exhibiting different characteristics notably in terms of global burden (from 415 to >160 million of cases) and duration (from 26 to 360 days). A multivariate sensitivity analysis showed that the transmission rate and proportion of susceptibles have a strong impact on the pandemic diffusion. The correlation between interventions and pandemic outcomes were analyzed for two specific profiles: a fast, massive pandemic and a slow building, long-lasting one. In both cases, the date of introduction for five control measures (masks, isolation, prophylactic or therapeutic use of antivirals, vaccination) correlated strongly with pandemic outcomes. Conversely, the coverage and efficacy of these interventions only moderately correlated with pandemic outcomes in the case of a massive pandemic. Pre-pandemic vaccination influenced pandemic outcomes in both profiles, while travel restriction was the only measure without any measurable effect in either. CONCLUSIONS: our study highlights: (i) the great heterogeneity in possible profiles of a future influenza pandemic; (ii) the value of being well prepared in every country since a pandemic may have heavy consequences wherever and whenever it starts; (iii) the need to quickly implement control measures and even to anticipate pandemic emergence through pre-pandemic vaccination; and (iv) the value of combining all available control measures except perhaps travel restrictions

    Jack of All Trades, Master of All: A Positive Association between Habitat Niche Breadth and Foraging Performance in Pit-Building Antlion Larvae

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    Species utilizing a wide range of resources are intuitively expected to be less efficient in exploiting each resource type compared to species which have developed an optimal phenotype for utilizing only one or a few resources. We report here the results of an empirical study whose aim was to test for a negative association between habitat niche breadth and foraging performance. As a model system to address this question, we used two highly abundant species of pit-building antlions varying in their habitat niche breadth: the habitat generalist Myrmeleon hyalinus, which inhabits a variety of soil types but occurs mainly in sandy soils, and the habitat specialist Cueta lineosa, which is restricted to light soils such as loess. Both species were able to discriminate between the two soils, with each showing a distinct and higher preference to the soil type providing higher prey capture success and characterizing its primary habitat-of-origin. As expected, only small differences in the foraging performances of the habitat generalist were evident between the two soils, while the performance of the habitat specialist was markedly reduced in the alternative sandy soil. Remarkably, in both soil types, the habitat generalist constructed pits and responded to prey faster than the habitat specialist, at least under the temperature range of this study. Furthermore, prey capture success of the habitat generalist was higher than that of the habitat specialist irrespective of the soil type or prey ant species encountered, implying a positive association between habitat niche-breadth and foraging performance. Alternatively, C. lineosa specialization to light soils does not necessarily confer upon its superiority in utilizing such habitats. We thus suggest that habitat specialization in C. lineosa is either an evolutionary dead-end, or, more likely, that this species' superiority in light soils can only be evident when considering additional niche axes

    Connectivity of larval stages of sedentary marine communities between hard substrates and offshore structures in the North Sea

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    Man-made structures including rigs, pipelines, cables, renewable energy devices, and ship wrecks, offer hard substrate in the largely soft-sediment environment of the North Sea. These structures become colonised by sedentary organisms and non-migratory reef fish, and form local ecosystems that attract larger predators including seals, birds, and fish. It is possible that these structures form a system of interconnected reef environments through the planktonic dispersal of the pelagic stages of organisms by ocean currents. Changes to the overall arrangement of hard substrate areas through removal or addition of individual man-made structures will affect the interconnectivity and could impact on the ecosystem. Here, we assessed the connectivity of sectors with oil and gas structures, wind farms, wrecks, and natural hard substrate, using a model that simulates the drift of planktonic stages of seven organisms with sedentary adult stages associated with hard substrate, applied to the period 2001–2010. Connectivity was assessed using a classification system designed to address the function of sectors in the network. Results showed a relatively stable overall spatial distribution of sector function but with distinct variations between species and years. The results are discussed in the context of decommissioning of oil and gas infrastructure in the North Sea

    Effects of Elevated Temperature and Carbon Dioxide on the Growth and Survival of Larvae and Juveniles of Three Species of Northwest Atlantic Bivalves

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    Rising CO2 concentrations and water temperatures this century are likely to have transformative effects on many coastal marine organisms. Here, we compared the responses of two life history stages (larval, juvenile) of three species of calcifying bivalves (Mercenaria mercenaria, Crassostrea virginica, and Argopecten irradians) to temperatures (24 and 28°C) and CO2 concentrations (∼250, 390, and 750 ppm) representative of past, present, and future summer conditions in temperate estuaries. Results demonstrated that increases in temperature and CO2 each significantly depressed survival, development, growth, and lipid synthesis of M. mercenaria and A. irradians larvae and that the effects were additive. Juvenile M. mercenaria and A. irradians were negatively impacted by higher temperatures while C. virginica juveniles were not. C. virginica and A. irradians juveniles were negatively affected by higher CO2 concentrations, while M. mercenaria was not. Larvae were substantially more vulnerable to elevated CO2 than juvenile stages. These findings suggest that current and future increases in temperature and CO2 are likely to have negative consequences for coastal bivalve populations

    Climate-driven range extension of Amphistegina (protista, foraminiferida) : models of current and predicted future ranges

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    © The Author(s), 2013. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in PLoS ONE 8 (2013): e54443, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0054443.Species-range expansions are a predicted and realized consequence of global climate change. Climate warming and the poleward widening of the tropical belt have induced range shifts in a variety of marine and terrestrial species. Range expansions may have broad implications on native biota and ecosystem functioning as shifting species may perturb recipient communities. Larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera constitute ubiquitous and prominent components of shallow water ecosystems, and range shifts of these important protists are likely to trigger changes in ecosystem functioning. We have used historical and newly acquired occurrence records to compute current range shifts of Amphistegina spp., a larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera, along the eastern coastline of Africa and compare them to analogous range shifts currently observed in the Mediterranean Sea. The study provides new evidence that amphisteginid foraminifera are rapidly progressing southwestward, closely approaching Port Edward (South Africa) at 31°S. To project future species distributions, we applied a species distribution model (SDM) based on ecological niche constraints of current distribution ranges. Our model indicates that further warming is likely to cause a continued range extension, and predicts dispersal along nearly the entire southeastern coast of Africa. The average rates of amphisteginid range shift were computed between 8 and 2.7 km year−1, and are projected to lead to a total southward range expansion of 267 km, or 2.4° latitude, in the year 2100. Our results corroborate findings from the fossil record that some larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera cope well with rising water temperatures and are beneficiaries of global climate change.This work was supported by grants from the German Science Foundation (DFG; www.dfg.de) to ML and SL (LA 884/10-1, LA 884/5-1)

    Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature

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    Pathogen quantitation in complex matrices : a multi-operator comparison of DNA extraction methods with a novel assessment of PCR inhibition

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    Background: Mycobacterium bovis is the aetiological agent of bovine tuberculosis (bTB), an important recrudescent zoonosis, significantly increasing in British herds in recent years. Wildlife reservoirs have been identified for this disease but the mode of transmission to cattle remains unclear. There is evidence that viable M. bovis cells can survive in soil and faeces for over a year. Methodology/Principal Findings: We report a multi-operator blinded trial for a rigorous comparison of five DNA extraction methods from a variety of soil and faecal samples to assess recovery of M. bovis via real-time PCR detection. The methods included four commercial kits: the QIAamp Stool Mini kit with a pretreatment step, the FastDNA® Spin kit, the UltraCleanTM and PowerSoilTM soil kits and a published manual method based on phenol:chloroform purification, termed Griffiths. M. bovis BCG Pasteur spiked samples were extracted by four operators and evaluated using a specific real-time PCR assay. A novel inhibition control assay was used alongside spectrophotometric ratios to monitor the level of inhibitory compounds affecting PCR, DNA yield, and purity. There were statistically significant differences in M. bovis detection between methods of extraction and types of environmental samples; no significant differences were observed between operators. Processing times and costs were also evaluated. To improve M. bovis detection further, the two best performing methods, FastDNA® Spin kit and Griffiths, were optimised and the ABI TaqMan environmental PCR Master mix was adopted, leading to improved sensitivities. Conclusions: M. bovis was successfully detected in all environmental samples; DNA extraction using FastDNA® Spin kit was the most sensitive method with highest recoveries from all soil types tested. For troublesome faecal samples, we have used and recommend an improved assay based on a reduced volume, resulting in detection limits of 4.25 x 105 cells g-1 using Griffiths and 4.25 x 106 cells g-1 using FastDNA® Spin kit

    Regulation of human trophoblast gene expression by endogenous retroviruses.

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    The placenta is a fast-evolving organ with large morphological and histological differences across eutherians, but the genetic changes driving placental evolution have not been fully elucidated. Transposable elements, through their capacity to quickly generate genetic variation and affect host gene regulation, may have helped to define species-specific trophoblast gene expression programs. Here we assess the contribution of transposable elements to human trophoblast gene expression as enhancers or promoters. Using epigenomic data from primary human trophoblast and trophoblast stem-cell lines, we identified multiple endogenous retrovirus families with regulatory potential that lie close to genes with preferential expression in trophoblast. These largely primate-specific elements are associated with inter-species gene expression differences and are bound by transcription factors with key roles in placental development. Using genetic editing, we demonstrate that several elements act as transcriptional enhancers of important placental genes, such as CSF1R and PSG5. We also identify an LTR10A element that regulates ENG expression, affecting secretion of soluble endoglin, with potential implications for preeclampsia. Our data show that transposons have made important contributions to human trophoblast gene regulation, and suggest that their activity may affect pregnancy outcomes
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