Smarter choices ?changing the way we travel. Case study reports

This report accompanies the following volume:Cairns S, Sloman L, Newson C, Anable J, Kirkbride A and Goodwin P (2004)Smarter Choices ? Changing the Way We Travel. Report published by theDepartment for Transport, London, available via the ?Sustainable Travel? section ofwww.dft.gov.uk, and from http://eprints.ucl.ac.uk/archive/00001224/

Smarter choices - changing the way we travel

Summary: In recent years, there has been growing interest in a range of initiatives, which are now widelydescribed as 'soft' transport policy measures. These seek to give better information and opportunities,aimed at helping people to choose to reduce their car use while enhancing the attractiveness ofalternatives. They are fairly new as part of mainstream transport policy, mostly relativelyuncontroversial, and often popular. They include:. Workplace and school travel plans;. Personalised travel planning, travel awareness campaigns, and public transport information andmarketing;. Car clubs and car sharing schemes;. Teleworking, teleconferencing and home shopping.This report draws on earlier studies of the impact of soft measures, new evidence from the UK andabroad, case study interviews relating to 24 specific initiatives, and the experience of commercial,public and voluntary stakeholders involved in organising such schemes. Each of the soft factors isanalysed separately, followed by an assessment of their combined potential impact.The assessment focuses on two different policy scenarios for the next ten years. The 'high intensity'scenario identifies the potential provided by a significant expansion of activity to a much morewidespread implementation of present good practice, albeit to a realistic level which still recognisesthe constraints of money and other resources, and variation in the suitability and effectiveness of softfactors according to local circumstances. The 'low intensity' scenario is broadly defined as aprojection of the present (2003-4) levels of local and national activity on soft measures.The main features of the high intensity scenario would be. A reduction in peak period urban traffic of about 21% (off-peak 13%);. A reduction of peak period non-urban traffic of about 14% (off-peak 7%);. A nationwide reduction in all traffic of about 11%.These projected changes in traffic levels are quite large (though consistent with other evidence onbehavioural change at the individual level), and would produce substantial reductions in congestion.However, this would tend to attract more car use, by other people, which could offset the impact ofthose who reduce their car use unless there are measures in place to prevent this. Therefore, thoseexperienced in the implementation of soft factors locally usually emphasise that success depends onsome or all of such supportive policies as re-allocation of road capacity and other measures toimprove public transport service levels, parking control, traffic calming, pedestrianisation, cyclenetworks, congestion charging or other traffic restraint, other use of transport prices and fares, speedregulation, or stronger legal enforcement levels. The report also records a number of suggestionsabout local and national policy measures that could facilitate the expansion of soft measures.The effects of the low intensity scenario, in which soft factors are not given increased policy prioritycompared with present practice, are estimated to be considerably less than those of the high intensityscenario, including a reduction in peak period urban traffic of about 5%, and a nationwide reductionin all traffic of 2%-3%. These smaller figures also assume that sufficient other supporting policies areused to prevent induced traffic from eroding the effects, notably at peak periods and in congestedconditions. Without these supportive measures, the effects could be lower, temporary, and perhapsinvisible.Previous advice given by the Department for Transport in relation to multi-modal studies was that softfactors might achieve a nationwide traffic reduction of about 5%. The policy assumptionsunderpinning this advice were similar to those used in our low intensity scenario: our estimate isslightly less, but the difference is probably within the range of error of such projections.The public expenditure cost of achieving reduced car use by soft measures, on average, is estimated atabout 1.5 pence per car kilometre, i.e. £15 for removing each 1000 vehicle kilometres of traffic.Current official practice calculates the benefit of reduced traffic congestion, on average, to be about15p per car kilometre removed, and more than three times this level in congested urban conditions.Thus every £1 spent on well-designed soft measures could bring about £10 of benefit in reducedcongestion alone, more in the most congested conditions, and with further potential gains fromenvironmental improvements and other effects, provided that the tendency of induced traffic to erodesuch benefits is controlled. There are also opportunities for private business expenditure on some softmeasures, which can result in offsetting cost savings.Much of the experience of implementing soft factors is recent, and the evidence is of variable quality.Therefore, there are inevitably uncertainties in the results. With this caveat, the main conclusion isthat, provided they are implemented within a supportive policy context, soft measures can besufficiently effective in facilitating choices to reduce car use, and offer sufficiently good value formoney, that they merit serious consideration for an expanded role in local and national transportstrategy.AcknowledgementsWe gratefully acknowledge the many contributions made by organisations and individuals consultedas part of the research, and by the authors of previous studies and literature reviews which we havecited. Specific acknowledgements are given at the end of each chapter.We have made extensive use of our own previous work including research by Lynn Sloman funded bythe Royal Commission for the Exhibition of 1851 on the traffic impact of soft factors and localtransport schemes (in part previously published as 'Less Traffic Where People Live'); and by SallyCairns and Phil Goodwin as part of the research programme of TSU supported by the Economic andSocial Research Council, and particularly research on school and workplace travel plans funded bythe DfT (and managed by Transport 2000 Trust), on car dependence funded by the RAC Foundation,on travel demand analysis funded by DfT and its predecessors, and on home shopping funded byEUCAR. Case studies to accompany this report are available at: http://eprints.ucl.ac.uk/archive/00001233

Pole Dancing: 3D Morphs for Tree Drawings

We study the question whether a crossing-free 3D morph between two straight-line drawings of an $n$-vertex tree can be constructed consisting of a small number of linear morphing steps. We look both at the case in which the two given drawings are two-dimensional and at the one in which they are three-dimensional. In the former setting we prove that a crossing-free 3D morph always exists with $O(\log n)$ steps, while for the latter $\Theta(n)$ steps are always sufficient and sometimes necessary.Comment: Appears in the Proceedings of the 26th International Symposium on Graph Drawing and Network Visualization (GD 2018

Electrically-assisted bikes: potential impacts on travel behaviour

This paper reports on a review of the European literature about the impacts of having an electrically-assisted bike available to use, together with results from a trial in the UK city of Brighton, where 80 employees were loaned an electrically-assisted bike for a 6–8 week period. In the Brighton trial, three-quarters of those who were loaned an e-bike used them at least once a week. Across the sample as a whole, average usage was in the order of 15–20 miles per week, and was accompanied by an overall reduction in car mileage of 20%. At the end of the trial, 38% participants expected to cycle more in the future, and at least 70%said that they would like to have an e-bike available for use in the future, and would cycle more if this was the case. This is consistent with the results of the European literature which shows that when e-bikes are made available, they get used; that a proportion of e-bike trips typically substitutes for car use; and that many people who take part in trials become interested in future e-bike use, or cycling more generall

The Commission and Its Report: Public Education, Advocacy and Lobbying

Mr. Harris: The question concerning the justification of commissions of inquiry has been raised in the preceding discussions. If their sole justification is having the bulk of their recommendations implemented, the institution probably would have died out long ago. Nevertheless, it must be of considerable concern to commissioners that the record has not been good in terms of implementation and one of the questions that perhaps will determine how successful commissions are in this respect has to do with what happens when the report is delivered and thereafter. These questions will be largely the subject of the panel that we are about to present. You will not be treated to profound, scholarly papers on policy analysis or anything like that in this panel. There will be practical comments and suggestions

Survey Of UK Clinicians’ Approaches To Decision-Making In Neonatal Intestinal Failure

BACKGROUND: Outcomes for neonatal intestinal failure (IF) have improved significantly over the past two decades, however, there is no consensus for decision making among UK paediatric subspecialists. OBJECTIVES: The aim was to describe clinician’s attitudes to decision making in neonatal IF and examine variation between subspecialties. METHODS: Neonatologists, paediatric surgeons and gastroenterologists were surveyed electronically. They were asked if they would recommend active or palliative care or allow the parents to decide in several scenarios; or if they considered treatment morally obligatory or impermissible. RESULTS: Of 147 respondents, 81% of gastroenterologists would recommend active care (34.6% regardless of parental decision) for a term infant with total gut Hirschsprung’s compared with 46% and 33% of surgeons and neonatologists. No gastroenterologist would recommend palliation while 23% of both neonatologists and surgeons would. Similarly, 77% of surgeons and 73% of neonatologists would recommend palliation for a 28-week infant with IF and bilateral parenchymal haemorrhages compared with 27% of gastroenterologists. Prognostic estimates also varied. A term baby with IF was estimated to have a survival of >80% at 5 years by 58% of gastroenterologists compared with 11.5% and 2.7% of surgeons and neonatologists. Only 11.5% of surgeons and 2.6% of neonatologist believed a 26-week preterm with IF would have a 5-year survival >60% compared with 59% of gastroenterologists. CONCLUSION: There is substantial variation in views about outcomes and management choices both within and between specialties; with gastroenterologists being consistently more positive. This is likely to lead to unjustified variation in counselling and parental choices

Results from the third Scottish National Prevalence Survey: is a population health approach now needed to prevent healthcare-associated infections?

Summary Background Healthcare associated infections (HAI) are a major public health concern and a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. A robust and current evidence base that is specific to local, national and Europe-wide settings is necessary to inform the development of strategies to reduce HAI and contain antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Aim To measure the prevalence of HAI and antimicrobial prescribing and identify key priority areas for interventions to reduce the burden of infection. Methods A national rolling PPS in National Health Service (NHS) acute, NHS non-acute, NHS paediatric and independent hospitals was carried out between September and November 2016 using the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control protocol designed for the European PPS. Findings The prevalence of HAI was 4.6%, 2.7% and 3.2% in acute adults, paediatric and non-acute patient groups, respectively. The most common HAI types reported in adult patients were urinary tract infection and pneumonia. The prevalence of antimicrobial prescribing was 35.7%, 29.3% and 13.8% in acute adults, paediatric and non-acute patient groups, respectively. Respiratory, skin and soft tissue, gastrointestinal and urinary tract infections were the most common infections being treated at the time of survey. Conclusion HAI continues to be a public health concern in Scotland. UTI and pneumonia continue to place a significant burden on patients and on healthcare delivery, including those that develop in the community and require hospital admission. A broader population health approach which focuses on reducing the risk of infection upstream would reduce these infections in both community and hospital settings

Population Dynamics Of Red Kangaroos (Macropus rufus) In Relation To Rainfall In The South Australian Pastoral Zone

1. Populations of red kangaroos (Macropus rufus) in the 282,000 km2 pastoral zone of South Australia were assessed by aerial surveys conducted each year in winter for the period 1978-88, inclusive. The results of these surveys are used in a kangaroo management programme, the basis of which is the control of kangaroo numbers through regulated culling. 2. Rainfall in the pastoral zone is generally low and unreliable. Comparatively good seasons, with rainfall near to, or above average prevailed from 1978 to 1981. During this period, red kangaroo numbers increased throughout the pastoral zone. A drought occurred between 1982 and 1983. Associated with this drought was a dramatic decline in red kangaroo numbers; to the lowest level since 1978. Following the drought, the populations recovered, with steady increases in numbers from 1984 onwards. 3. The changes in red kangaroo numbers, in the form of the yearly exponential rate of population increase (r) were found to correlate best with intervals of rainfall at short time-lags from the second of any two successive aerial surveys used to determine r. 4. The numerical response of the red kangaroo populations to rainfall was investigated. Asymptotic models in the form of the negative exponential Mitscherlich equation were fitted to data for the period 1978-84. The rainfall input into these models was that for the calendar summer-autumn period between successive aerial surveys (January-June). 5. The response to summer-autumn rainfall in the Western region of the pastoral zone was different to that in the Central & Eastern region. Separate numerical response models were derived for each of these two regions. These models implied positive rates of exponential population growth (r>O) when summer-autumn rainfall exceeded 74 mm in the Western region and 107 mm in the Central & Eastern region. They also implied maximum levels of r of 0.92 in the Western region and 0.38 in the Central & Eastern region. 6. Predictions by the numerical response models of the changes in red kangaroo numbers in relation to summer-autumn rainfall for the period 1984-88 proved to be rather poor, particularly for the years immediately following the drought. It is suggested that the reason for this was that the age structures and sex ratios of the post-drought populations were different from those of the populations used to develop the models. Drought is thought both to truncate the age structures of kangaroo populations and to bias the sex ratios towards the females. A result of this could be an increase in the numerical response to rainfall above that of a population near to the carrying capacity of its environment and with a near-stable age structure