On the estimation of temporal mileage rates

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A Brief Aerial Survey in the Vicinity of Sellafield in September 1990

A two day survey exercise was conducted by SURRC from 25th-26th September 1990 with the joint aims of demonstrating the potential of helicopters for emergency response and beginning the definition of baseline levels in the immediate vicinity of Sellafield. The aircraft used for this work was a twin engined AS 355 "Squirrel" helicopter chartered from Dollar Helicopters. It was loaded with an 8 litre NaI gamma spectrometry system at SURRC in East Kilbride on the afternoon of 24th September and flown down to Sellafield the same day. Over the following two days roughly 1300 gamma ray spectra were recorded from an area ranging south from an EW line linking Ennerdale Fell and St. Bees Head to beyond Ravenglass. Operations were conducted from the Sellafield helipad, the aircraft being refuelled at Barrow in Furness. The flights were arranged to provide nominally 1km spaced parallel NS flight lines throughout the survey area, for the purpose of baseline mapping. Supplementary flights to improve spatial resolution are possible at a later stage. In addition a rapid response flight route was rehearsed involving definition of landward arcs at 10km, 5km and 2km radii from Sellafield plus the beachline from St. Bees Head to Ravenglass. The precise path was chosen to be navigable under most weather conditions and took roughly 40 minutes to fly. A survey aircraft arriving from East Kilbride could perform such a survey without pausing to refuel. The results have been stored archivally and used to map the naturally occurring nuclides 40K, 214Bi, 208Tl together with 137 Cs and total gamma ray flux. The maps presented are spatially smoothed, both by the inherent character of the aerial survey technique and by the colour contouring processes. This leads to a tendency to broaden spatial features, while slightly reducing maximum values, and should be taken into account when interpreting the maps. Greater spatial detail could be achieved with closer flight line spacing. Activity due to Sellafield was readily detected in the area and can be seen clearly in the maps. It is noted that the levels observed are generally comparable with those in BNFL annual reports and other research publications. Furthermore, with a few exceptions, naturally occurring radionuclides are the dominant radiation source in much of the survey area, and show considerable variations from place to place. 137Cs due to marine discharges was most pronounced in the Irt, Mite and Esk estuaries and on the beachline close to the plant. The same nuclide was detected at lower levels in terrestrial areas due to a combination of global fallout, aerial discharges from the plant and the Chernobyl accident. 41Ar and 16N activities were detected in the immediate vicinity of Calder Hall. A small feature was detected at Drigg, probably associated with current operations on the site, and equivalent to an enhancement of less than twice the local natural background. Radiation levels due to current activities on the Sellafield site fall off rapidly with distance from the perimeter, approaching natural levels within 0.5-1km at the time of the survey. Those from the marine, estuarine and tide washed environments are mostly attributed to past marine discharges, and can be expected to continue to receive attention in the future

A Brief Aerial Survey in the Vicinity of Sellafield in September 1990

A two day survey exercise was conducted by SURRC from 25th-26th September 1990 with the joint aims of demonstrating the potential of helicopters for emergency response and beginning the definition of baseline levels in the immediate vicinity of Sellafield. The aircraft used for this work was a twin engined AS 355 "Squirrel" helicopter chartered from Dollar Helicopters. It was loaded with an 8 litre NaI gamma spectrometry system at SURRC in East Kilbride on the afternoon of 24th September and flown down to Sellafield the same day. Over the following two days roughly 1300 gamma ray spectra were recorded from an area ranging south from an EW line linking Ennerdale Fell and St. Bees Head to beyond Ravenglass. Operations were conducted from the Sellafield helipad, the aircraft being refuelled at Barrow in Furness. The flights were arranged to provide nominally 1km spaced parallel NS flight lines throughout the survey area, for the purpose of baseline mapping. Supplementary flights to improve spatial resolution are possible at a later stage. In addition a rapid response flight route was rehearsed involving definition of landward arcs at 10km, 5km and 2km radii from Sellafield plus the beachline from St. Bees Head to Ravenglass. The precise path was chosen to be navigable under most weather conditions and took roughly 40 minutes to fly. A survey aircraft arriving from East Kilbride could perform such a survey without pausing to refuel. The results have been stored archivally and used to map the naturally occurring nuclides 40K, 214Bi, 208Tl together with 137 Cs and total gamma ray flux. The maps presented are spatially smoothed, both by the inherent character of the aerial survey technique and by the colour contouring processes. This leads to a tendency to broaden spatial features, while slightly reducing maximum values, and should be taken into account when interpreting the maps. Greater spatial detail could be achieved with closer flight line spacing. Activity due to Sellafield was readily detected in the area and can be seen clearly in the maps. It is noted that the levels observed are generally comparable with those in BNFL annual reports and other research publications. Furthermore, with a few exceptions, naturally occurring radionuclides are the dominant radiation source in much of the survey area, and show considerable variations from place to place. 137Cs due to marine discharges was most pronounced in the Irt, Mite and Esk estuaries and on the beachline close to the plant. The same nuclide was detected at lower levels in terrestrial areas due to a combination of global fallout, aerial discharges from the plant and the Chernobyl accident. 41Ar and 16N activities were detected in the immediate vicinity of Calder Hall. A small feature was detected at Drigg, probably associated with current operations on the site, and equivalent to an enhancement of less than twice the local natural background. Radiation levels due to current activities on the Sellafield site fall off rapidly with distance from the perimeter, approaching natural levels within 0.5-1km at the time of the survey. Those from the marine, estuarine and tide washed environments are mostly attributed to past marine discharges, and can be expected to continue to receive attention in the future

Role of surface roughness in hard x-ray emission from femtosecond laser produced copper plasmas

The hard x-ray emission in the energy range of 30-300 keV from copper plasmas produced by 100 fs, 806 nm laser pulses at intensities in the range of 10$^{15}-10^{16}$ W cm$^{-2}$ is investigated. We demonstrate that surface roughness of the targets overrides the role of polarization state in the coupling of light to the plasma. We further show that surface roughness has a significant role in enhancing the x-ray emission in the above mentioned energy range.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, to appear in Phys. Rev.

Model confidence sets and forecast combination: an application to age-specific mortality

Background: Model averaging combines forecasts obtained from a range of models, and it often produces more accurate forecasts than a forecast from a single model. Objective: The crucial part of forecast accuracy improvement in using the model averaging lies in the determination of optimal weights from a finite sample. If the weights are selected sub-optimally, this can affect the accuracy of the model-averaged forecasts. Instead of choosing the optimal weights, we consider trimming a set of models before equally averaging forecasts from the selected superior models. Motivated by Hansen et al. (2011), we apply and evaluate the model confidence set procedure when combining mortality forecasts. Data & Methods: The proposed model averaging procedure is motivated by Samuels and Sekkel (2017) based on the concept of model confidence sets as proposed by Hansen et al. (2011) that incorporates the statistical significance of the forecasting performance. As the model confidence level increases, the set of superior models generally decreases. The proposed model averaging procedure is demonstrated via national and sub-national Japanese mortality for retirement ages between 60 and 100+. Results: Illustrated by national and sub-national Japanese mortality for ages between 60 and 100+, the proposed model-average procedure gives the smallest interval forecast errors, especially for males. Conclusion: We find that robust out-of-sample point and interval forecasts may be obtained from the trimming method. By robust, we mean robustness against model misspecification

Patient-reported outcome results from the open-label, randomized phase III myeloma X trial evaluating salvage autologous stem-cell transplantation in relapsed multiple myeloma

Purpose: Salvage autologous stem-cell transplantation (sASCT) in patients with multiple myeloma (MM) relapsing after a prior autologous stem-cell transplantation leads to increased remission duration and overall survival. We report a comprehensive study on patient-reported outcomes, including quality of life (QoL) and pain in sASCT. Methods: Patients were randomly assigned to either sASCT or nontransplantation consolidation (NTC). Pain and QoL were assessed as secondary outcomes using validated QoL instruments (European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer QLQ-C30 and myeloma-specific module, QLQ-MY20; the Brief Pain Inventory [Short Form]; and the Leeds Assessment of Neuropathic Symptoms and Signs [Self-Assessment] scale). Results: A total of 288 patients (> 96%) consented to the QoL substudy. The median follow-up was 52 months. The European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer QLQ-C30 Global health status scores were higher (better) in the NTC group at 100 days after random assignment ( P = .0496), but not at later time points. Pain interference was higher (worse) in the sASCT group than in the NTC group at 6 months after random assignment ( P = .0267), with patients with sASCT reporting higher scores for Pain interference with daily living for up to 2 years after random assignment. Patients reporting lower concerns about adverse effects of treatment after sASCT had a time to progression advantage. Conclusion: Patients with sASCT with relapsed MM demonstrated a comparative reduction in QoL and greater impact of treatment adverse effects lasting for 6 months and up to 2 years for pain, after which patients who had received sASCT reported better outcomes. Patients who experienced lower adverse effects after sASCT had longer time to progression and overall survival, showing the need to improve symptom management peritransplantation. To our knowledge, this study provides the most comprehensive picture of QoL before and after sASCT in patients with relapsed MM

Nucleosomes in gene regulation: theoretical approaches

This work reviews current theoretical approaches of biophysics and bioinformatics for the description of nucleosome arrangements in chromatin and transcription factor binding to nucleosomal organized DNA. The role of nucleosomes in gene regulation is discussed from molecular-mechanistic and biological point of view. In addition to classical problems of this field, actual questions of epigenetic regulation are discussed. The authors selected for discussion what seem to be the most interesting concepts and hypotheses. Mathematical approaches are described in a simplified language to attract attention to the most important directions of this field

Comprehensive analysis of epigenetic clocks reveals associations between disproportionate biological ageing and hippocampal volume

The concept of age acceleration, the difference between biological age and chronological age, is of growing interest, particularly with respect to age-related disorders, such as Alzheimer’s Disease (AD). Whilst studies have reported associations with AD risk and related phenotypes, there remains a lack of consensus on these associations. Here we aimed to comprehensively investigate the relationship between five recognised measures of age acceleration, based on DNA methylation patterns (DNAm age), and cross-sectional and longitudinal cognition and AD-related neuroimaging phenotypes (volumetric MRI and Amyloid-β PET) in the Australian Imaging, Biomarkers and Lifestyle (AIBL) and the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). Significant associations were observed between age acceleration using the Hannum epigenetic clock and cross-sectional hippocampal volume in AIBL and replicated in ADNI. In AIBL, several other findings were observed cross-sectionally, including a significant association between hippocampal volume and the Hannum and Phenoage epigenetic clocks. Further, significant associations were also observed between hippocampal volume and the Zhang and Phenoage epigenetic clocks within Amyloid-β positive individuals. However, these were not validated within the ADNI cohort. No associations between age acceleration and other Alzheimer’s disease-related phenotypes, including measures of cognition or brain Amyloid-β burden, were observed, and there was no association with longitudinal change in any phenotype. This study presents a link between age acceleration, as determined using DNA methylation, and hippocampal volume that was statistically significant across two highly characterised cohorts. The results presented in this study contribute to a growing literature that supports the role of epigenetic modifications in ageing and AD-related phenotypes

New insights into the genetic etiology of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias

Characterization of the genetic landscape of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and related dementias (ADD) provides a unique opportunity for a better understanding of the associated pathophysiological processes. We performed a two-stage genome-wide association study totaling 111,326 clinically diagnosed/'proxy' AD cases and 677,663 controls. We found 75 risk loci, of which 42 were new at the time of analysis. Pathway enrichment analyses confirmed the involvement of amyloid/tau pathways and highlighted microglia implication. Gene prioritization in the new loci identified 31 genes that were suggestive of new genetically associated processes, including the tumor necrosis factor alpha pathway through the linear ubiquitin chain assembly complex. We also built a new genetic risk score associated with the risk of future AD/dementia or progression from mild cognitive impairment to AD/dementia. The improvement in prediction led to a 1.6- to 1.9-fold increase in AD risk from the lowest to the highest decile, in addition to effects of age and the APOE ε4 allele