Parsimonious Catchment and River Flow Modelling

It is increasingly the case that models are being developed as “evolving” products rather than\ud one-off application tools, such that auditable modelling versus ad hoc treatment of models becomes a\ud pivotal issue. Auditable modelling is particularly vital to “parsimonious modelling” aimed at meeting\ud specific modelling requirements. This paper outlines various contributory factors and aims to seed\ud proactively a research topic by inextricably linking value/risk management to parsimonious modelling.\ud Value management in modelling may be implemented in terms of incorporating “enough detail” into a\ud model so that the synergy among the constituent units of the model captures that of the real system. It is a\ud problem of diminishing returns, since further reductions in the constituent units will create an\ud unacceptable difference between the model and the real system; conversely, any further detail will add to\ud the cost of modelling without returning any significant benefit. The paper also defines risk management\ud in relation to modelling. It presents a qualitative framework for value/risk management towards\ud parsimonious modelling by the categorisation of “modelling techniques” in terms of “control volume.

Cold-sintered temperature stable Na0.5Bi0.5MoO4–Li2MoO4 microwave composite ceramics

© 2017 American Chemical Society. A cold sintering process (150 °C, 30 min and 200 MPa) was employed to fabricate Na 0.5 Bi 0.5 MoO 4 -Li 2 MoO 4 (NBMO-LMO) composites with up to 96.4% relative density. X-ray diffraction traces, backscattered electron images and Raman spectra indicated the coexistence of NBMO and LMO phases in all composites with no detectable secondary phases. The pemittivity (ϵ r ) and temperature coefficient of resonant frequency (TCF) decreased, whereas microwave quality factor (Q × f) increased, with increasing weight % LMO. Near-zero TCF was obtained for NBMO-20 wt %LMO with ϵ r ∼ 17.4 and Q × f ∼ 7470 GHz. Functionally graded ceramics were also fabricated with 5 ≤ ϵ r ≤ 24. To illustrate the potential of these cold sintered composites to create new substrates and device architecture, a dielectric graded radial index lens was designed and simulated based on the range of ϵ r facilitated by the NBMO-LMO system, which suggested a 78% aperture efficiency at 34 GHz

Migration Tactics Of A Long-Distance Migratory Songbird From Across A Continental Breeding Range

Migration strategies in the avian world are often compared at the species level and evaluated relative to general ecology and constraints such as molting and breeding timetables. The advancement of tracking technology provides an opportunity to explore variation in more specific migration tactics within species and their populations as it relates to demographic and environmental factors throughout the annual cycle. We compare migration timing among 4 populations of Bobolink (Dolichonyx oryzivorus) from across the breeding range using data from light-level geolocators. The date of departure from the breeding grounds and the duration of southbound migration differed among breeding populations, and were more variable for eastern breeding populations compared to western populations farther from the main migration corridor. Despite variation in both timing and distance from the corridor among breeding populations, date of arrival at the major southbound stop in the Llanos of South America remained synchronous, but less so than previously described. Weekly flight distances were highly variable and did not differ among populations. Duration of northbound migration did not differ among populations and was half as long as the southbound migration. Our findings show Bobolink populations breeding near the species’ relatively narrow migration corridor in the southeastern United States were more variable in terms of how they reached the first lengthy stop in the Llanos, suggesting more flexibility in migration tactics. Breeding locations were not associated, however, with the timing or duration of the remainder of their migratory schedule. Our findings support the hypothesis that food resources, both historical and present, drive and also modify the endogenous migration schedule of this flocking species with a split migration

Comparison of the EyeSys Corneal Analysis System and peripheral keratometry using a B&L keratometer and a lighted fixation device

The purpose of this study was to develop a keratometric device that would give a peripheral corneal measurement approximately 3.0mm from the center of the cornea and to compare the accuracy of the peripheral keratometry readings to an industry standard, a computerized corneal topographer. The EyeSys Corneal Analysis System by EyeSys laboratories in Houston, Texas, was chosen as a representative of available computerized corneal topographers. A fixation device, with peripheral fixation targets was created and attached to a standard Bausch & Lomb keratometer. Thirty-one subjects (five in the initial phase and twenty-six in the final phase) who were free from corneal disease and were not contact lens wearers, were subjects for this study. Each subject had four keratometric readings per eye taken 3.0mm from the center of the cornea and compared to the same location on their topographic map. Ninety-one percent of all readings fell within ±0.500. The device may prove to be a useful tool to aid in the base curve selection when fitting RGP lenses on both normal and pathologic eyes (i.e. keratoconus, post-keratoplasty and post-refractive surgery)

The orbifold cohomology of moduli of genus 3 curves

In this work we study the additive orbifold cohomology of the moduli stack of smooth genus g curves. We show that this problem reduces to investigating the rational cohomology of moduli spaces of cyclic covers of curves where the genus of the covering curve is g. Then we work out the case of genus g=3. Furthermore, we determine the part of the orbifold cohomology of the Deligne-Mumford compactification of the moduli space of genus 3 curves that comes from the Zariski closure of the inertia stack of M_3.Comment: 29 pages, 2 figures. Minor changes, to appear in Manuscripta Mat

The observational impact of dust trapping in self-gravitating discs

We present a 3D semi-analytic model of self-gravitating discs, and include a prescription for dust trapping in the disc spiral arms. Using Monte-Carlo radiative transfer we produce synthetic ALMA observations of these discs. In doing so we demonstrate that our model is capable of producing observational predictions, and able to model real image data of potentially self-gravitating discs. For a disc to generate spiral structure that would be observable with ALMA requires that the disc's dust mass budget is dominated by millimetre and centimetre-sized grains. Discs in which grains have grown to the grain fragmentation threshold may satisfy this criterion, thus we predict that signatures of gravitational instability may be detectable in discs of lower mass than has previously been suggested. For example, we find that discs with disc-to-star mass ratios as low as $0.10$ are capable of driving observable spiral arms. Substructure becomes challenging to detect in discs where no grain growth has occurred or in which grain growth has proceeded well beyond the grain fragmentation threshold. We demonstrate how we can use our model to retrieve information about dust trapping and grain growth through multi-wavelength observations of discs, and using estimates of the opacity spectral index. Applying our disc model to the Elias 27, WaOph 6 and IM Lup systems we find gravitational instability to be a plausible explanation for the observed substructure in all 3 discs, if sufficient grain growth has indeed occurred.Comment: 19 pages, 21 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

A DNA methylation classifier of cervical precancer based on human papillomavirus and human genes

Cancer Research UK. Grant Number: C569/A1040