Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the National Football League

A question of increasing interest to researchers in a variety of fields is whether the incentives and experience present in many "real world" settings mitigate judgment and decision-making biases. To investigate this question, we analyze the decision making of National Football League teams during their annual player draft. This is a domain in which incentives are exceedingly high and the opportunities for learning rich. It is also a domain in which multiple psychological factors suggest teams may overvalue the "right to choose" in the draft -- non-regressive predictions, overconfidence, the winner's curse and false consensus all suggest a bias in this direction. Using archival data on draft-day trades, player performance and compensation, we compare the market value of draft picks with the historical value of drafted players. We find that top draft picks are overvalued in a manner that is inconsistent with rational expectations and efficient markets and consistent with psychological research.

The Loser\u27s Curse: Decision Making and Market Efficiency in the National Football League Draft

A question of increasing interest to researchers in a variety of fields is whether the biases found in judgment and decision-making research remain present in contexts in which experienced participants face strong economic incentives. To investigate this question, we analyze the decision making of National Football League teams during their annual player draft. This is a domain in which monetary stakes are exceedingly high and the opportunities for learning are rich. It is also a domain in which multiple psychological factors suggest that teams may overvalue the chance to pick early in the draft. Using archival data on draft-day trades, player performance, and compensation, we compare the market value of draft picks with the surplus value to teams provided by the drafted players. We find that top draft picks are significantly overvalued in a manner that is inconsistent with rational expectations and efficient markets, and consistent with psychological research

Hairy Leukoplakia

Oral hairy leukoplakia (OHL) is a disease of the mucosa first described in 1984. This pathology is associated with Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and occurs mostly in people with HIV infection, both immunocompromised and immunocompetent, and can affect patients who are HIV negative. [1, 2] The first case in an HIV-negative patient was reported in 1999 in a 56-year-old patient with acute lymphocytic leukemia. Later, many cases were reported in heart, kidney, and bone marrow transplant recipients and patients with hematological malignancies. [3, 4

Atrial fibrillation and its determinants after radiofrequency ablation of chronic common atrial flutter

Aim. Atrial fibrillation (AFib) is a major clinical issue and its occurrence is the main problem after catheter ablation of atrial flutter. The long-term occurrence of AFib after common atrial flutter ablation is still matter of debate as it may influence the therapeutic approach. So, the aim of our study was to analyze the determinants and the time course of AFib after radiofrequency catheter ablation of chronic common atrial flutter. Methods and Results. 89 consecutive patients (67.5 ± 12.0 yrs) underwent RF ablation of chronic common atrial flutter. 38.2 % had previous history of paroxysmal AFib. 51% had no underlying structural heart disease. Over a mean follow-up of 38 ± 13 months, the occurrence rate of AFib progressively increased up to 32.9% at the end of follow-up. The median occurrence time for AFib was 8 months. AFib occurrence was significantly associated with previous AFib history (P=0.01) but not with the presence of underlying heart disease (P=n.s.). Of particular interest, in our study, AFib never occurred in patients without previous AFib history. Palpitations after chronic common atrial flutter ablation was mostly related to AFib. Conclusion. In conclusion, after chronic common atrial flutter ablation, AFib incidence progressively increased over the follow-up in all patients. Patients with prior AFib history appeared to be a very high risk group. In these patients, closer monitoring is mandatory and the persistent risk of AFib recurrences may justify prolonged anticoagulation policy

Parents reinforce the formation of first impressions in conversation with their children

The tendency to form first impressions from facial appearance emerges early in development. One route through which these impressions may be learned is parent-child interaction. In Study 1, 24 parent-child dyads (children aged 5–6 years, 50% male, 83% White British) were given four computer generated faces and asked to talk about each of the characters shown. Study 2 (children aged 5–6 years, 50% male, 92% White British) followed a similar procedure using images of real faces. Across both studies, around 13% of conversation related to the perceived traits of the individuals depicted. Furthermore, parents actively reinforced their children’s face-trait mappings, agreeing with the opinions they voiced on approximately 40% of occasions across both studies. Interestingly, although parents often encouraged face-trait mappings in their children, their responses to questionnaire items suggested they typically did not approve of judging others based on their appearance

Low Concentration Microenvironments Enhance the Migration of Neonatal Cells of Glial Lineage

Glial tumors have demonstrated abilities to sustain growth via recruitment of glial progenitor cells (GPCs), which is believed to be driven by chemotactic cues. Previous studies have illustrated that mouse GPCs of different genetic backgrounds are able to replicate the dispersion pattern seen in the human disease. How GPCs with genetic backgrounds transformed by tumor paracrine signaling respond to extracellular cues via migration is largely unexplored, and remains a limiting factor in utilizing GPCs as therapeutic targets. In this study, we utilized a microfluidic device to examine the chemotaxis of three genetically-altered mouse GPC populations towards tumor conditioned media, as well as towards three growth factors known to initiate the chemotaxis of cells excised from glial tumors: Hepatocyte Growth Factor (HGF), Platelet-Derived Growth Factor-BB (PDGF-BB), and Transforming Growth Factor-α (TGF-α). Our results illustrate that GPC types studied exhibited chemoattraction and chemorepulsion by different concentrations of the same ligand, as well as enhanced migration in the presence of ultra-low ligand concentrations within environments of high concentration gradient. These findings contribute towards our understanding of the causative and supportive roles that GPCs play in tumor growth and reoccurrence, and also point to GPCs as potential therapeutic targets for glioma treatment

Comparison of open and closed book test for admission in medical school

Introduction La maladie thromboembolique veineuse (MTEV) acquise à l’hôpital représente une part importante de morbi-mortalité évitable chez les patients hospitalisés en secteur médical. D’un autre côté, la thromboprophylaxie anticoagulante expose les patients à un risque hémorragique et majore les dépenses de santé. L’identification des patients hospitalisés à risque de MTEV est en cela cruciale. L’objectif de cette étude est d’évaluer de manière externe, les performances de 3 modèles de risque (score de Padua, Carpini et Improve) et de les comparer aux performances de l’âge pris isolément. Patients et méthodes Il s’agit d’une étude rétrospective sur une base de patients inclus prospectivement dans une étude randomisée en cluster sans intervention directe sur le patient. Les patients de plus de 40 ans, hospitalisé depuis les urgences en secteur médical plus de 48 h ont consécutivement été inclus et suivi à 3 mois. Les patients chez qui un diagnostic de MTEV avait été porté dans les 48 premières heures d’hospitalisation, ou ayant reçu un traitement anticoagulant pour une raison autre que la MTEV, ou encore ayant subi une chirurgie sous anesthésie générale ont été exclus. Les modèles de risques ont été calculés à posteriori. La réduction de mobilité a été déduite de la durée d’hospitalisation moins un jour. Le critère de jugement principal était la survenue d’un épisode thrombotique veineux symptomatique ou le décès brutal inexpliqué adjudiqué à 3 mois. Résultats Parmi les 14 910 patient éligibles, 14 659 (98,3) étaient évaluables. 263 (1,8 %) ont présenté une MTEV symptomatique ou un décès brutal inexpliqué. Les aires sous la courbe ROC étaient respectivement 0,60 [0,57–0,63], 0,62 [0,58–0,64] et 0,62 [0,59–0,65] pour les scores Caprini, Improve et Padua. Aucun de ces modèles n’a montré de performances supérieures à l’âge pris isolément (AUC 0,61 [0,58–0,64]). Ces résultats étaient similaires ne considérant que les évènements symptomatiques non fatals : (0,62 [0,58–0,66], 0,62 [0,58–0,66], 0,63 [0,59–0,67] et 0,58 [0,54–0,62]) ; ou dans le sous-groupe de patients ne recevant pas de thromboprophylaxie anticoagulante : 0,62 [0,58–0,67], 0,64 [0,60–0,68], 0,64 [0,59–0,68] et 0,66 [0,62–0,70] pour le score Caprini, Improve, Padua et l’âge, respectivement. Conclusion Les scores de Padua, Caprini et Improve ont des capacités de discrimination faible vis-à-vis de la MTEV acquise à l’hôpital, similaire à une évaluation se basant uniquement sur l’âge. Les meilleurs modèles de risque sont nécessaires

Effect of Real-Time Feedback on Power Output Using a Novel Smart-Resisted Sled Push

International Journal of Exercise Science 15(6): 1578-1586, 2022. Prior studies have demonstrated the beneficial effects of real-time data feedback (RTF) on athletic performance and motivation. Despite this evidence, the lack of practical means to implement RTF has hindered its widespread adoption. Recently, a smart-resisted sled push was developed to improve athletic power by utilizing electromagnetic motors as a resistance mechanism, coupled with an RTF display. Thirty healthy college-aged male football players were recruited in this randomized, crossover designed study to examine the efficacy of the RTF to improve power output. Participants were randomized into either group 1 (receiving RTF first then no RTF) or group 2 (receiving no RTF first then RTF) during six, 10-meter sled pushes with 3 min rest intervals. The first three pushes were set to an easier level (L1) and the last three were set to a resistance level twice that of the first three runs (L2). A one-month washout period was enforced. For trials 1-3 (L1) (p = 0.026, t = -2.34, ES = -0.428) and 4-6 (L2) (p = 0.035, t = -2.22, ES = -0.405), peak power output (the average peak power output over the course of trials 1-3 and 4-6) was greater in both groups when receiving RTF compared to no-RTF. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of RTF in augmenting power output during performance training

Muscle Activity and User-Perceived Exertion During Immersive Virtual Reality Exergaming Incorporating an Adaptive Cable Resistance System

International Journal of Exercise Science 15(7): 261-275, 2022. The purpose of this exploratory study was to characterize muscle activation via surface electromyography (sEMG), user-perceived exertion, and enjoyment during a 30-minute session of immersive virtual reality (IVR) cable resistance exergaming. Ten healthy, college-aged males completed a signature 30-minute exergaming session using an IVR adaptive cable resistance system that incorporated six traditional compound exercises. Muscle activation (sEMG) was captured during the session with a wearable sEMG system. Rated of Perceived Exertion (RPE) and Physical Activity Enjoyment Scale (PACES) were recorded following the session. Pectoralis major showed the highest activation during chest press, deltoids showed the highest activation on overhead press, latissimus dorsi showed the highest activation during lat pulldown and row exercises, hamstrings were the most activated muscles during Romanian deadlift, and glutes showed the highest activity during squats. RPE and PACES mean scores were 14 (1) and 4.27 (0.38), respectively. IVR exergaming with resistance cable training provides an enjoyable experience and distracts practitioners from exertion while exercising at a high intensity. Results from this study suggest similar muscle activation responses compared to traditional resistance exercises as demonstrated with prior evidence. This novel form of exercise might have important repercussions for improving health outcomes among those who find it challenging to adhere to and enjoy exercise routines, as well as with little knowledge on how to progress in their resistance training. Further investigations are needed to explore long-term adaptations and to assess if IVR exergaming has additional benefits compared to traditional resistance training

Low dose chloroquine decreases insulin resistance in human metabolic syndrome but does not reduce carotid intima-media thickness

Background: Metabolic syndrome, an obesity-related condition associated with insulin resistance and low-grade inflammation, leads to diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancer, osteoarthritis, and other disorders. Optimal therapy is unknown. The antimalarial drug chloroquine activates the kinase ataxia telangiectasia mutated (ATM), improves metabolic syndrome and reduces atherosclerosis in mice. To translate this observation to humans, we conducted two clinical trials of chloroquine in people with the metabolic syndrome. Methods: Eligibility included adults with at least 3 criteria of metabolic syndrome but who did not have diabetes. Subjects were studied in the setting of a single academic health center. The specific hypothesis: chloroquine improves insulin sensitivity and decreases atherosclerosis. In Trial 1, the intervention was chloroquine dose escalations in 3-week intervals followed by hyperinsulinemic euglycemic clamps. Trial 2 was a parallel design randomized clinical trial, and the intervention was chloroquine, 80 mg/day, or placebo for 1 year. The primary outcomes were clamp determined-insulin sensitivity for Trial 1, and carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) for Trial 2. For Trial 2, subjects were allocated based on a randomization sequence using a protocol in blocks of 8. Participants, care givers, and those assessing outcomes were blinded to group assignment. Results: For Trial 1, 25 patients were studied. Chloroquine increased hepatic insulin sensitivity without affecting glucose disposal, and improved serum lipids. For Trial 2, 116 patients were randomized, 59 to chloroquine (56 analyzed) and 57 to placebo (51 analyzed). Chloroquine had no effect on CIMT or carotid contrast enhancement by MRI, a pre-specified secondary outcome. The pre-specified secondary outcomes of blood pressure, lipids, and activation of JNK (a stress kinase implicated in diabetes and atherosclerosis) were decreased by chloroquine. Adverse events were similar between groups. Conclusions: These findings suggest that low dose chloroquine, which improves the metabolic syndrome through ATM-dependent mechanisms in mice, modestly improves components of the metabolic syndrome in humans but is unlikely to be clinically useful in this setting