Indian summer monsoon prediction and simulation in CFSv2 coupled model

Using carefully designed coupled model experiments, we have demonstrated that the prediction skill of the all India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) in Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) model basically comes from the El-Niňo Southern Oscillation-Monsoon teleconnection. On the other hand, contrary to observations, the Indian Ocean coupled dynamics do not have a crucial role in controlling the prediction skill of the AISMR in CFSv2. We show that the inadequate representation of the Indian Ocean coupled dynamics in CFSv2 is responsible for this dichotomy. Hence, the improvement of the Indian Ocean coupled dynamics is essential for further improvement of the AISMR prediction skill in CFSv2

On measurement of top polarization as a probe of ttˉt \bar t production mechanisms at the LHC

In this note we demonstrate the use of top polarization in the study of $t \bar t$ resonances at the LHC, in the possible case where the dynamics implies a non-zero top polarization. As a probe of top polarization we construct an asymmetry in the decay-lepton azimuthal angle distribution (corresponding to the sign of $\cos\phi_\ell$) in the laboratory. The asymmetry is non-vanishing even for a symmetric collider like the LHC, where a positive $z$ axis is not uniquely defined. The angular distribution of the leptons has the advantage of being a faithful top-spin analyzer, unaffected by possible anomalous $tbW$ couplings, to linear order. We study, for purposes of demonstration, the case of a $Z'$ as might exist in the little Higgs models. We identify kinematic cuts which ensure that our asymmetry reflects the polarization in sign and magnitude. We investigate possibilities at the LHC with two energy options: $\sqrt{s} = 14$ TeV and $\sqrt{s} = 7$ TeV, as well as at the Tevatron. At the LHC the model predicts net top quark polarization of the order of a few per cent for $M_{Z'} \simeq 1200$ GeV, being as high as $10$ for a smaller mass of the $Z'$ of $700$ GeV and for the largest allowed coupling in the model, the values being higher for the $7$ TeV option. These polarizations translate to a deviation from the standard-model value of azimuthal asymmetry of up to about $4$ ($7$) for $14$ ($7$) TeV LHC, whereas for the Tevatron, values as high as $12$ are attained. For the $14$ TeV LHC with an integrated luminosity of 10 fb$^{-1}$, these numbers translate into a $3 \sigma$ sensitivity over a large part of the range $500 \lesssim M_{Z'} \lesssim 1500$ GeV.Comment: 28 page, LaTeX, requires JHEP style file, 12 figures. Typos corrected and references adde

The use of biomedicine, complementary and alternative medicine, and ethnomedicine for the treatment of epilepsy among people of South Asian origin in the UK

Studies have shown that a significant proportion of people with epilepsy use complementary and alternative medicine (CAM). CAM use is known to vary between different ethnic groups and cultural contexts; however, little attention has been devoted to inter-ethnic differences within the UK population. We studied the use of biomedicine, complementary and alternative medicine, and ethnomedicine in a sample of people with epilepsy of South Asian origin living in the north of England. Interviews were conducted with 30 people of South Asian origin and 16 carers drawn from a sampling frame of patients over 18 years old with epilepsy, compiled from epilepsy registers and hospital databases. All interviews were tape-recorded, translated if required and transcribed. A framework approach was adopted to analyse the data. All those interviewed were taking conventional anti-epileptic drugs. Most had also sought help from traditional South Asian practitioners, but only two people had tried conventional CAM. Decisions to consult a traditional healer were taken by families rather than by individuals with epilepsy. Those who made the decision to consult a traditional healer were usually older family members and their motivations and perceptions of safety and efficacy often differed from those of the recipients of the treatment. No-one had discussed the use of traditional therapies with their doctor. The patterns observed in the UK mirrored those reported among people with epilepsy in India and Pakistan. The health care-seeking behaviour of study participants, although mainly confined within the ethnomedicine sector, shared much in common with that of people who use global CAM. The appeal of traditional therapies lay in their religious and moral legitimacy within the South Asian community, especially to the older generation who were disproportionately influential in the determination of treatment choices. As a second generation made up of people of Pakistani origin born in the UK reach the age when they are the influential decision makers in their families, resort to traditional therapies may decline. People had long experience of navigating plural systems of health care and avoided potential conflict by maintaining strict separation between different sectors. Health care practitioners need to approach these issues with sensitivity and to regard traditional healers as potential allies, rather than competitors or quacks

Population Empirical Likelihood Estimation in Dual Frame Surveys

Dual frame surveys are a device to reduce the costs derived from data collection in surveys and improve coverage for the whole target population. Since their introduction, in the 1960’s, dual frame surveys have gained much attention and several estimators have been formulated based on a number of different approaches. In this work, we propose new dual frame estimators based on the population empirical likelihood method originally proposed by Chen and Kim (2014) and using both the dual and the single frame approach. The extension of the proposed methodology to more than two frame surveys is also sketched. The performance of the proposed estimators in terms of relative bias and relative mean squared error is tested through simulation experiments. These experiments indicate that the proposed estimators yield better results than other likelihood-based estimators proposed in the literature.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad of Spai

Cognitive performance in relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis: A longitudinal study in daily practice using a brief computerized cognitive battery

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is need for a cognitive test battery that can be easily used in clinical practice to detect or monitor cognitive performance in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). In order to conduct, in this patient group, a preliminary investigation of the validity and utility of a brief computerized battery, the Cognitive Drug Research (CDR) battery, we longitudinally assessed cognition in patients with relapsing remitting (RR) MS.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Forty-three mildly disabled, clinically active RRMS patients were repeatedly assessed with the Digit Symbol Substitution Test (DSST), Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT) and five composite scores derived from the CDR computerized cognitive test system (CDR System): Power of Attention, Continuity of Attention, Quality of Working Memory, Quality of Episodic Memory and Speed of Memory. The Multiple Sclerosis Functional Composite (MSFC) and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) measured disability.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The composite scores from the CDR battery generally showed excellent test-retest reliability over the repeated assessments, though was low on occasions for the Quality of Working Memory and Quality of Episodic Memory measures. The CDR measures tended to be highly correlated with other measures of cognition (DSST and PASAT) and were also strongly related to disability (EDSS and MSFC). Baseline scores indicated large impairments to visual information processing speed and attention (DSST, Cohen's d 1.1; Power of Attention d 1.4 [reaction time on tasks of focussed and sustained attention]), and a moderate impairment both to sustained attention (Continuity of Attention d 0.6) and complex information processing speed (Speed of memory d 0.7 [reaction time on tasks of working and episodic Memory]), when compared to normative data derived from healthy volunteers enrolled in a series of separate, prior clinical trials. Working memory (Quality of Working Memory) and episodic memory (Quality of Episodic Memory) were unimpaired.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Preliminary validation of the CDR System indicated that for most, but not all measures psychometric properties were adequate and the measures were related to disability (EDSS and MSFC) and other measures of cognition.</p

Meta-Analysis of the Association between Transforming Growth Factor-Beta Polymorphisms and Complications of Coronary Heart Disease

Objective: To investigate the association between common transforming growth factor beta (TGF-β) single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) and significant complications of coronary heart disease (CHD).\ud \ud Method: We performed a meta-analysis of published case-control studies assessing the association of TGF-β SNPs with a range of CHD complications. A random effects model was used to calculate odds ratios and confidence intervals. Analyses were conducted for additive, dominant and recessive modes of inheritance.\ud \ud Results: Six studies involving 5535 cases and 2970 controls examining the association of common SNPs in TGF-β1 with CHD were identified. Applying a dominant model of inheritance, three TGF-β1 SNPs were significantly associated with CHD complications: The T alleles of rs1800469 (OR = 1.125, 95% CI 1.016–1.247, p = 0.031) and rs1800470 (OR = 1.146, 95% CI 1.026–1.279, p = 0.021); and the C allele of rs1800471 (OR = 1.207, 95% CI 1.037–1.406, p = 0.021).\ud \ud Conclusion: This meta-analysis suggests that common genetic polymorphisms in TGF-β1 are associated with complications of CHD

Calibration estimation in dual-frame surveys

Survey statisticians make use of auxiliary information to improve estimates. One important example is calibration estimation, which constructs new weights that match benchmark constraints on auxiliary variables while remaining “close” to the design weights. Multiple-frame surveys are increasingly used by statistical agencies and private organizations to reduce sampling costs and/or avoid frame undercoverage errors. Several ways of combining estimates derived from such frames have been proposed elsewhere; in this paper, we extend the calibration paradigm, previously used for single-frame surveys, to calculate the total value of a variable of interest in a dual-frame survey. Calibration is a general tool that allows to include auxiliary information from two frames. It also incorporates, as a special case, certain dual-frame estimators that have been proposed previously. The theoretical properties of our class of estimators are derived and discussed, and simulation studies conducted to compare the efficiency of the procedure, using different sets of auxiliary variables. Finally, the proposed methodology is applied to real data obtained from the Barometer of Culture of Andalusia survey.Ministerio de Educación y CienciaConsejería de Economía, Innovación, Ciencia y EmpleoPRIN-SURWE

Probabilistic Inference in General Graphical Models through Sampling in Stochastic Networks of Spiking Neurons

An important open problem of computational neuroscience is the generic organization of computations in networks of neurons in the brain. We show here through rigorous theoretical analysis that inherent stochastic features of spiking neurons, in combination with simple nonlinear computational operations in specific network motifs and dendritic arbors, enable networks of spiking neurons to carry out probabilistic inference through sampling in general graphical models. In particular, it enables them to carry out probabilistic inference in Bayesian networks with converging arrows (“explaining away”) and with undirected loops, that occur in many real-world tasks. Ubiquitous stochastic features of networks of spiking neurons, such as trial-to-trial variability and spontaneous activity, are necessary ingredients of the underlying computational organization. We demonstrate through computer simulations that this approach can be scaled up to neural emulations of probabilistic inference in fairly large graphical models, yielding some of the most complex computations that have been carried out so far in networks of spiking neurons