Confirmation in the Cognitive Sciences: The Problematic Case of Bayesian Models

Bayesian models of human learning are becoming increasingly popular in cognitive science. We argue that their purported confirmation largely relies on a methodology that depends on premises that are inconsistent with the claim that people are Bayesian about learning and inference. Bayesian models in cognitive science derive their appeal from their normative claim that the modeled inference is in some sense rational. Standard accounts of the rationality of Bayesian inference imply predictions that an agent selects the option that maximizes the posterior expected utility. Experimental confirmation of the models, however, has been claimed because of groups of agents that “probability match” the posterior. Probability matching only constitutes support for the Bayesian claim if additional unobvious and untested (but testable) assumptions are invoked. The alternative strategy of weakening the underlying notion of rationality no longer distinguishes the Bayesian model uniquely. A new account of rationality—either for inference or for decision-making—is required to successfully confirm Bayesian models in cognitive science

Sequential Extraction of Cadmium in Different Soil Phases and Plant Parts from a Former Industrialized Area

Cd concentrations in mobile phases of soil are more representative than total Cd concentration for estimating Cd bioavailability, physicochemical reactivity and mobility. In this study, selective sequential extraction procedures were used to determine Cd in different soil phases. Soil samples and plants grown in these soils were collected from a serpentine and copper-mining area in Maden-Elazig-Turkey. The extracted fractions were exchangeable/carbonate, reducible-iron/manganese oxides, oxidizable-organic matter and sulfides, and residual phases except silicates. Concentrations of Cd in soils and plant samples were determined by flame atomic absorption spectrometry and inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. We found that Cd concentrations in the EDTA and NH2OH·HCl extracts are higher in most soil samples compared to the other extracts. We conclude that Cd levels in mobile phases are unexpectedly high. The observed Cd concentrations are in ranges of 0.03–3.4 mg kg−1 for soil and 0.02–2.5 mg kg−1 for plant parts. The percentages of cadmium up to 56% in exchangeable and carbonates fractions were observed to be significantly higher than in those values less than 2% reported in literature. This study has shown that the modified extraction method can be usefully applied to determine Cd concentrations in potentially mobile phase of soil. Furthermore, it was concluded that Brassicasea and Rumex leaves can be used as hyperaccumulator plants because their translocation factor and/or enrichment coefficient values were found to be higher than 1.0