Assessment of impacts on ecosystem services provided by geodiversity in highly urbanised areas: a case study of the Taubaté Basin, Brazil

This work presents a method to identify, to evaluate and to quantify the losses of the offer of ecosystem services provided by geodiversity, using as a case study the Taubaté Basin region, a highly urbanized portion of southeastern São Paulo State, Brazil. Our method considers not only the qualitative analysis of the abiotic as- pects, but also the historical and cultural context, in which the geodiversity elements are crucial for local economy development. The method is based on: i) Qualitative evaluation and definition of six Essential Geodiversity Variables (EGVs), used as the basis for the identification of 53 ecosystem services distributed into four functions: regulating, supporting, provisioning, and cultural; ii) Definition of land use categories based on two land use maps elaborated in order to compare the transformation occurred in the region between 1986 and 2016; iii) Quantification and evaluation of the impacts on the offer of ecosystem services caused by land use transformations occurred in region in a 30–year gap. The results showed that anthropogenic action is the main factor that alter the availability of local services, with emphasis on the supply of water, soils and mineral resources, and its potentially influence on the quality of life of certain species. We reinforce the view that public policies on land management and planning should consider the ecosystem assessment, as it provides evidence to propose actions to mitigate impacts and for environmental compensation, favoring the sustainable use of re- sources by society.The authors would like to thank CAPES for the Academic Mobility Program PDSE Scholarship / Process Nr. 88,881.135227 / 2016–01 and for the PhD research scholarship in Brazil awarded to the first author

Using fuzzy cognitive maps to describe current system dynamics and develop land cover scenarios: a case study in the Brazilian Amazon

In this study we developed a methodology to identify and quantify the relationships among determinants of land cover change using a regional case study in the Brazilian Amazon. The method is based on the application of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs), a semi-quantitative tool that provides a structured assessment of key feedbacks in scenario analysis. Novel to the application of FCMs is the use of spatial data-sets as the main input to build a cognitive map. Identification of interactions between land cover determinants and strengths is based on an empirical analysis of spatially explicit data and literature review. Expert knowledge is adopted to identify the strengths and weaknesses of the method. Potential pitfalls, such as spatial autocorrelation and scale issues, identified are intrinsic to the empirical data analysis. The outputs of the resulting FCMs are compared to the outputs of spatially explicit models under similar scenarios of change. The proposed method is said to be robust and reproducible when compared with participatory approaches, and it can endorse the consistency between demand and allocation in scenario analysis to be used in spatially explicit models