Multi-Fractal Spectral Analysis of the 1987 Stock Market Crash

The multifractal model of asset returns captures the volatility persistence of many financial time series. Its multifractal spectrum computed from wavelet modulus maxima lines provides the spectrum of irregularities in the distribution of market returns over time and thereby of the kind of uncertainty or randomness in a particular market. Changes in this multifractal spectrum display distinctive patterns around substantial market crashes or drawdowns. In other words, the kinds of singularities and the kinds of irregularity change in a distinct fashion in the periods immediately preceding and following major market drawdowns. This paper focuses on these identifiable multifractal spectral patterns surrounding the stock market crash of 1987. Although we are not able to find a uniquely identifiable irregularity pattern within the same market preceding different crashes at different times, we do find the same uniquely identifiable pattern in various stock markets experiencing the same crash at the same time. Moreover, our results suggest that all such crashes are preceded by a gradual increase in the weighted average of the values of the Lipschitz regularity exponents, under low dispersion of the multifractal spectrum. At a crash, this weighted average irregularity value drops to a much lower value, while the dispersion of the spectrum of Lipschitz exponents jumps up to a much higher level after the crash. Our most striking result, therefore, is that the multifractal spectra of stock market returns are not stationary. Also, while the stock market returns show a global Hurst exponent of slight persistence 0.5Financial Markets, Persistence, Multi-Fractal Spectral Analysis, Wavelets

Long-Term Dependence Characteristics of European Stock Indices

In this paper we show the degrees of persistence of the time series if eight European stock market indices are measured, after their lack of ergodicity and stationarity has been established. The proper identification of the nature of the persistence of financial time series forms a crucial step in deciding whether econometric modeling of such series might provide meaningful results. Testing for ergodicity and stationarity must be the first step in deciding whether the assumptions of numerous time series models are met. Our results indicate that ergodicity and stationarity are very difficult to establish in daily observations of these market indexes and thus various time-series models cannot be successfully identified. However, the measured degrees of persistence point to the existence of certain dependencies, most likely of a nonlinear nature, which, perhaps can be used in the identification of proper empirical econometric models of such dynamic time paths of the European stock market indexes. The paper computes and analyzes the long- term dependence of the equity index data as measured by global Hurst exponents, which are computed from wavelet multi-resolution analysis. For example, the FTSE turns out to be an ultra-efficient market with abnormally fast mean-reversion, faster than theoretically postulated by a Geometric Brownian Motion. Various methodologies appear to produce non-unique empirical measurement results and it is very difficult to obtain definite conclusions regarding the presence or absence of long term dependence phenomena like persistence or anti-persistence based on the global or homogeneous Hurst exponent. More powerful methods, such as the computation of the multifractal spectra of financial time series may be required. However, the visualization of the wavelet resonance coefficients and their power spectrograms in the form of localized scalograms and average scalegrams, forcefully assist with the detection and measurement of several nonlinear types of market price diffusion.Long-Term Dependence, European Stock Indices

Modelling water-harvesting systems in the arid south of Tunisia using SWAT

In many arid countries, runoff water-harvesting systems support the livelihood of the rural population. Little is known, however, about the effect of these systems on the water balance components of arid watersheds. The objective of this study was to adapt and evaluate the GIS-based watershed model SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) for simulating the main hydrologic processes in arid environments. The model was applied to the 270-km(2) watershed of wadi Koutine in southeast Tunisia, which receives about 200 mm annual rain. The main adjustment for adapting the model to this dry Mediterranean environment was the inclusion of water-harvesting systems, which capture and use surface runoff for crop production in upstream subbasins, and a modification of the crop growth processes. The adjusted version of the model was named SWAT-WH. Model evaluation was performed based on 38 runoff events recorded at the Koutine station between 1973 and 1985. The model predicted that the average annual watershed rainfall of the 12-year evaluation period (209 mm) was split into ET (72%), groundwater recharge (22%) and outflow (6%). The evaluation coefficients for calibration and validation were, respectively, R-2 (coefficient of determination) 0.77 and 0.44; E (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient) 0.73 and 0.43; and MAE (Mean Absolute Error) 2.6 mm and 3.0 mm, indicating that the model could reproduce the observed events reasonably well. However, the runoff record was dominated by two extreme events, which had a strong effect on the evaluation criteria. Discrepancies remained mainly due to uncertainties in the observed daily rainfall and runoff data. Recommendations for future research include the installation of additional rainfall and runoff gauges with continuous data logging and the collection of more field data to represent the soils and land use. In addition, crop growth and yield monitoring is needed for a proper evaluation of crop production, to allow an economic assessment of the different water uses in the watershed

Thermal Perception of Ventilation Changes in Full-Face Motorcycle Helmets: Subject and Manikin Study

We report the effects of full-face motorcycle helmet ventilation systems on heat, airflow, noise, and comfort perception for ventilation changes on the scalp. Eight subjects (aged 28.0 ± 5.4 years) underwent two experimental trials at ambient temperatures of 23.7 ± 0.4°C or 27.5 ± 0.3°C. In each trial, the thermally equilibrated subjects underwent two examination phases, during which four different helmets were assessed at wind speeds of 39.2 ± 1.9 km h−1 and 59.3 ± 1.4 km h−1. Vent-induced heat loss in the scalp ranged from −6.1 to 6.1 W, corresponding to vents being closed or opened, respectively. Perception of vent-induced changes was assessed immediately after the change. We find that the vent-induced heat loss, the subject, and the helmet are the most important response factors. In addition, comparison of two helmets with similar vent-induced heat loss suggests that internal airflow patterns may be important in explaining the observed perception difference

Modeling Spitzer observations of VV Ser. I. The circumstellar disk of a UX Orionis star

We present mid-infrared Spitzer-IRS spectra of the well-known UX Orionis star VV Ser. We combine the Spitzer data with interferometric and spectroscopic data from the literature covering UV to submillimeter wavelengths. The full set of data are modeled by a two-dimensional axisymmetric Monte Carlo radiative transfer code. The model is used to test the prediction of (Dullemond et al. 2003) that disks around UX Orionis stars must have a self-shadowed shape, and that these disks are seen nearly edge-on, looking just over the edge of a puffed-up inner rim, formed roughly at the dust sublimation radius. We find that a single, relatively simple model is consistent with all the available observational constraints spanning 4 orders of magnitude in wavelength and spatial scales, providing strong support for this interpretation of UX Orionis stars. The grains in the upper layers of the puffed-up inner rim must be small (0.01-0.4 micron) to reproduce the colors (R_V ~ 3.6) of the extinction events, while the shape and strength of the mid-infrared silicate emission features indicate that grains in the outer disk (> 1-2 AU) are somewhat larger (0.3-3.0 micron). From the model fit, the location of the puffed-up inner rim is estimated to be at a dust temperature of 1500 K or at 0.7-0.8 AU for small grains. This is almost twice the rim radius estimated from near-infrared interferometry. A best fitting model for the inner rim in which large grains in the disk mid-plane reach to within 0.25 AU of the star, while small grains in the disk surface create a puffed-up inner rim at ~0.7-0.8 AU, is able to reproduce all the data, including the near-infrared visibilities. [Abstract abridged]Comment: 12 pages, accepted for publication in Ap

Which factors influence orthodontists in their decision to extract? A questionnaire survey

To evaluate the relative influence of different criteria in the choice between extraction and nonextraction treatment in current orthodontics, and to assess how the percentage of extractions has evolved over time. Pre-treatment records (panoramic radiograph, lateral cephalogram, study casts and photographs) of fourteen cases in permanent dentition (adult or adolescent) with class I molar relationship and moderate anterior crowding were evaluated by 28 orthodontists. For each case, each orthodontist filled out a questionnaire reporting his treatment plan proposal (extraction or nonextraction) and the importance of specific parameters in his decision-making process, using categorical scales. Orthodontists practicing for more than 15 years were also asked to compare this decision with the one they would have taken at the beginning of their professional career. The two most important factors in the decision-making were the soft tissue profile and the amount of crowding. The least important factor was the presence of third molars. In cases of nonextraction treatment, the lack of space was managed mostly by dental expansion and stripping. Twenty percent of the case evaluations revealed extraction(s) decisions. Among the orthodontists practicing for more than 15 years, the current extraction rate reached 24%, whereas the same orthodontists reported they would have extracted in 39% of the cases in the past. The present study suggests that soft tissue profile has a higher impact than traditional criteria such as cephalometric measurements in the extraction decision. This is associated with a decreased extractions rate compared to the past

The Effect of Two Sock Fabrics on Perception and Physiological Parameters Associated with Blister Incidence: A Field Study

The goal of the present study was to investigate differences in perception and skin hydration at the foot of two sock fabrics with distinct moisture properties in a realistic military setting. Thirty-seven military recruits wore two different socks (PP: 99.6% polypropylene and 0.4% elastane, and BLEND: 50% Merino-wool, 33% polypropylene, and 17% polyamide), one on each foot. Measurements were carried out after a daily 6.5-km march on 4 days. Each participant rated temperature, dampness, friction, and comfort for each foot. On a daily selection of participants, skin hydration was measured on three sites of both feet using a corneometer, and moisture content of the socks was determined. BLEND was rated to be cooler, less damp, and more comfortable (P < 0.05). Two out of three skin sites were drier for BLEND than PP (P < 0.05). Moreover, BLEND stored 2.9 ± 0.3 times more moisture compared to PP. Thus, under the present conditions, socks such as BLEND are to be preferred over polypropylene sock

Tinjauan Kuat Lentur Balok Komposit Kayu

This research was use wood beam, reinforced concrete plate and nail as shear connector. Nail that used is artless nail and thread nail that public reside in marketing. the purpose of this research is to know bending strength of a composite beam of wood-concrete with shear connector artless nail and shear connector thread nail. The research was conducted at the Laboratory of Concrete Civil Engineering Department University of Nusa Cendana Kupang - NTT and Laboratory of Mechanical Engineering State Polytechnic of Kupang - NTT. From the results of research and analysis of the data obtained the maximum tension of composite beam with shear connector artless nail : maximum load as big as 40000 N; bending moments as big as 5.01 x106 Nmm; tension depresses as big as 29,327 N/mm2; contact surface-tension as big as 3,545 N/mm2; bending stress as big as 16,381 N/mm2; the shear stress as big as 6,325 N/mm2. Whereas the average test results of composite beams with shear connector thread nail is obtained by maximum load as big as 51667 N; bending moment as big as 6.47 x 106 Nmm ; tension depresses as big as 38,400 N/mm2; contact surface-tension as big as 4,624 N/mm2; bending stress as big as 21,205 N/mm2; the shear stress as big as 8,036 N/mm2

A New Raytracer for Modeling AU-Scale Imaging of Lines from Protoplanetary Disks

The material that formed the present-day solar system originated in feeding zones in the inner solar nebula located at distances within ~20 AU from the Sun, known as the planet-forming zone. Meteoritic and cometary material contain abundant evidence for the presence of a rich and active chemistry in the planet-forming zone during the gas-rich phase of solar system formation. It is a natural conjecture that analogs can be found among the zoo of protoplanetary disks around nearby young stars. The study of the chemistry and dynamics of planet formation requires: (1) tracers of dense gas at 100-1000 K and (2) imaging capabilities of such tracers with 5-100 mas (0.5-20 AU) resolution, corresponding to the planet-forming zone at the distance of the closest star-forming regions. Recognizing that the rich infrared (2-200 μm) molecular spectrum recently discovered to be common in protoplanetary disks represents such a tracer, we present a new general ray-tracing code, RADLite, that is optimized for producing infrared line spectra and images from axisymmetric structures. RADLite can consistently deal with a wide range of velocity gradients, such as those typical for the inner regions of protoplanetary disks. The code is intended as a back-end for chemical and excitation codes, and can rapidly produce spectra of thousands of lines for grids of models for comparison with observations. Such radiative transfer tools will be crucial for constraining both the structure and chemistry of planet-forming regions, including data from current infrared imaging spectrometers and extending to the Atacama Large Millimeter Array and the next generation of Extremely Large Telescopes, the James Webb Space Telescope and beyond

The ResPig program as a tool for identifying risk factors affecting technical performance and post-mortem results at the slaughterhouse on Dutch pig farms and for restrictive antibiotic use

The pig industry nowadays faces more complex diseases than ever before, such as Porcine Multi Systemic Wasting Syndrome and Porcine Respiratory Disease Complex. These disease entities are often caused by multiple infections combined with suboptimal conditions in the field of environment, management, biosecurity climatic conditions and more. Successful preventive plans include the identification of infectious and non infectious factors and preventive interventions based on this. Regarding PMWS, Madec formulated a list of 20 management measures and this was already quite successful in reducing the impact of that syndrome