Nuclear Power: a Hedge against Uncertain Gas and Carbon Prices?

High fossil fuel prices have rekindled interest in nuclear power. This paper identifies specific nuclear characteristics making it unattractive to merchant generators in liberalised electricity markets, and argues that non-fossil fuel technologies have an overlooked à ¢à  à  option valueà ¢à  à  given fuel and carbon price uncertainty. Stochastic optimisation estimates the company option value of keeping open the choice between nuclear and gas technologies. This option value decreases sharply as the correlation between electricity, gas, and carbon prices rises, casting doubt on whether private investorsà ¢à  à  fuel-mix diversification incentives in electricity markets are aligned with the social value of a diverse fuel-mix

Updating predictive accident models of modern rural single carriageway A-roads

Reliable predictive accident models (PAMs) are essential to design and maintain safe road networks and yet the models most commonly used in the UK were derived using data collected 20 to 30 years ago. Given that the national personal injury accident total fell by some 30% in the last 25 years, while road traffic increased by over 60%, significant errors in scheme appraisal and evaluation based on the models currently in use seem inevitable. In this paper the temporal transferability of PAMs for modern rural single carriageway A-roads is investigated and their predictive performance is evaluated against a recent data set. Despite the age of these models, the PAMs for predicting the total accidents provide a remarkably good fit to recent data and these are more accurate than models where accidents are disaggregated by type. The performance of the models can be improved by calibrating them against recent data

Experimental Investigation of a Two-dimensional Split-wing Ram-jet Inlet at Mach Number of 3.85

Performance characteristics of a two-dimensional isentropic diffuser have been experimentally determined at a Mach number of 3.85. At zero angle of attack, a maximum total-pressure recovery of 0.41 was obtained with a supercritical mass-flow ratio of 0.95. As a consequence of the twin-duct arrangement of the diffuser, a large discontinuity in pressure recovery and mass flow with a characteristic hysteresis was encountered between critical and subcritical operation. An asymmetric shock pattern with large-scale separation and flow reversal in one of the passages occurred at reduced mass flows. Pressure and force data presented for an angle-of-attack range from zero to 4 degrees

Zero-angle-of-attack Performance of Two-dimensional Inlets near Mach Number 3

An extensive program was undertaken to investigate the effect of several geometric variables on the performance of two-dimensional inlets. This investigation included inlets having single-wedge, double-wedge, and isentropic compression ramps with various side-plate configurations and subsonic diffusers. The tests were conducted over a range of Reynolds number based on inlet height from 0.50 to 2.67(sup x)10(sup 6). Generally, the performance levels of the two-dimensional inlets were somewhat below those obtained previously with comparable axisymmetric models. At Mach number 3.05 the optimum total-pressure recovery was obtained with an isentropic inlet which compressed the external flow to a Mach number of 1.88. Rectangular side plates and a long high-exit-Mach-number subsonic diffuser with filleted corners were used with this inlet. A critical total-pressure recovery of 0.71 was realized with a corresponding mass-flow ratio of 0.965. Subcritical stability to a mass-flow ratio of 0.60 was obtained

Inter-rater reliability for movement pattern analysis (MPA): measuring patterning of behaviors versus discrete behavior counts as indicators of decision-making style

The unique yield of collecting observational data on human movement has received increasing attention in a number of domains, including the study of decision-making style. As such, interest has grown in the nuances of core methodological issues, including the best ways of assessing inter-rater reliability. In this paper we focus on one key topic – the distinction between establishing reliability for the patterning of behaviors as opposed to the computation of raw counts – and suggest that reliability for each be compared empirically rather than determined a priori. We illustrate by assessing inter-rater reliability for key outcome measures derived from movement pattern analysis (MPA), an observational methodology that records body movements as indicators of decision-making style with demonstrated predictive validity. While reliability ranged from moderate to good for raw counts of behaviors reflecting each of two Overall Factors generated within MPA (Assertion and Perspective), inter-rater reliability for patterning (proportional indicators of each factor) was significantly higher and excellent (ICC = 0.89). Furthermore, patterning, as compared to raw counts, provided better prediction of observable decision-making process assessed in the laboratory. These analyses support the utility of using an empirical approach to inform the consideration of measuring patterning versus discrete behavioral counts of behaviors when determining inter-rater reliability of observable behavior. They also speak to the substantial reliability that may be achieved via application of theoretically grounded observational systems such as MPA that reveal thinking and action motivations via visible movement patterns