Climate model forecast biases assessed with a perturbed physics ensemble

Perturbed physics ensembles have often been used to analyse long-timescale climate model behaviour, but have been used less often to study model processes on shorter timescales. We combine a transient perturbed physics ensemble with a set of initialised forecasts to deduce regional process errors present in the standard HadCM3 model, which cause the model to drift in the early stages of the forecast. First, it is shown that the transient drifts in the perturbed physics ensembles can be used to recover quantitatively the parameters that were perturbed. The parameters which exert most influence on the drifts vary regionally, but upper ocean mixing and atmospheric convective processes are particularly important on the 1-month timescale. Drifts in the initialised forecasts are then used to recover the ‘equivalent parameter perturbations’, which allow identification of the physical processes that may be at fault in the HadCM3 representation of the real world. Most parameters show positive and negative adjustments in different regions, indicating that standard HadCM3 values represent a global compromise. The method is verified by correcting an unusually widespread positive bias in the strength of wind-driven ocean mixing, with forecast drifts reduced in a large number of areas as a result. This method could therefore be used to improve the skill of initialised climate model forecasts by reducing model biases through regional adjustments to physical processes, either by tuning or targeted parametrisation refinement. Further, such regionally tuned models might also significantly outperform standard climate models, with global parameter configurations, in longer-term climate studies

Under- and Over-Nutrition Among Refugees in San Diego County, California

Resettled refugees often arrive in their host country with little knowledge of nutrition or available food choices. We explored nutrition-related issues of recent refugee arrivals to San Diego County—the second largest California resettlement site. In-depth interviews (n = 40) were conducted with refugees, health care practitioners, and refugee service organizations. Content analysis identified nutrition-related themes. Unhealthy weight gain after arrival was the most common concern and was attributed to social pressures among adolescents, food choices and a more sedentary lifestyle. Conversely, undernutrition remained a concern due to poor diets. Factors influencing nutritional problems included continuation of past habits, acculturation, unfamiliarity with available foods and socio-economic influences. The nutritional concerns encountered by resettled refugees in San Diego are not unique to this group but are aggravated by their past experiences, and abrupt changes to food choices and behavior. Addressing contextual factors of poor food choices may prevent some of the long term health consequences of poor nutrition

Quantitative Image Analysis Reveals Distinct Structural Transitions during Aging in Caenorhabditis elegans Tissues

Aging is associated with functional and structural declines in many body systems, even in the absence of underlying disease. In particular, skeletal muscles experience severe declines during aging, a phenomenon termed sarcopenia. Despite the high incidence and severity of sarcopenia, little is known about contributing factors and development. Many studies focus on functional aspects of aging-related tissue decline, while structural details remain understudied. Traditional approaches for quantifying structural changes have assessed individual markers at discrete intervals. Such approaches are inadequate for the complex changes associated with aging. An alternative is to consider changes in overall morphology rather than in specific markers. We have used this approach to quantitatively track tissue architecture during adulthood and aging in the C. elegans pharynx, the neuromuscular feeding organ. Using pattern recognition to analyze aged-grouped pharynx images, we identified discrete step-wise transitions between distinct morphologies. The morphology state transitions were maintained in mutants with pharynx neurotransmission defects, although the pace of the transitions was altered. Longitudinal measurements of pharynx function identified a predictive relationship between mid-life pharynx morphology and function at later ages. These studies demonstrate for the first time that adult tissues undergo distinct structural transitions reflecting postdevelopmental events. The processes that underlie these architectural changes may contribute to increased disease risk during aging, and may be targets for factors that alter the aging rate. This work further demonstrates that pattern analysis of an image series offers a novel and generally accessible approach for quantifying morphological changes and identifying structural biomarkers

Proteomics Mapping of Cord Blood Identifies Haptoglobin “Switch-On” Pattern as Biomarker of Early-Onset Neonatal Sepsis in Preterm Newborns

Intra-amniotic infection and/or inflammation (IAI) are important causes of preterm birth and early-onset neonatal sepsis (EONS). A prompt and accurate diagnosis of EONS is critical for improved neonatal outcomes. We sought to explore the cord blood proteome and identify biomarkers and functional protein networks characterizing EONS in preterm newborns.We studied a prospective cohort of 180 premature newborns delivered May 2004-September 2009. A proteomics discovery phase employing two-dimensional differential gel electrophoresis (2D-DIGE) and mass spectrometry identified 19 differentially-expressed proteins in cord blood of newborns with culture-confirmed EONS (n = 3) versus GA-matched controls (n = 3). Ontological classifications of the proteins included transfer/carrier, immunity/defense, protease/extracellular matrix. The 1(st)-level external validation conducted in the remaining 174 samples confirmed elevated haptoglobin and haptoglobin-related protein immunoreactivity (Hp&HpRP) in newborns with EONS (presumed and culture-confirmed) independent of GA at birth and birthweight (P<0.001). Western blot concurred in determining that EONS babies had conspicuous Hp&HpRP bands in cord blood ("switch-on pattern") as opposed to non-EONS newborns who had near-absent "switch-off pattern" (P<0.001). Fetal Hp phenotype independently impacted Hp&HpRP. A bayesian latent-class analysis (LCA) was further used for unbiased classification of all 180 cases based on probability of "antenatal IAI exposure" as latent variable. This was then subjected to 2(nd)-level validation against indicators of adverse short-term neonatal outcome. The optimal LCA algorithm combined Hp&HpRP switch pattern (most input), interleukin-6 and neonatal hematological indices yielding two non-overlapping newborn clusters with low (≤20%) versus high (≥70%) probability of IAI exposure. This approach reclassified ∼30% of clinical EONS diagnoses lowering the number needed to harm and increasing the odds ratios for several adverse outcomes including intra-ventricular hemorrhage.Antenatal exposure to IAI results in precocious switch-on of Hp&HpRP expression. As EONS biomarker, cord blood Hp&HpRP has potential to improve the selection of newborns for prompt and targeted treatment at birth

The resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon and Indo-Pacific in a global 0.35◦ AGCM

The South Asian monsoon is one of the most significant manifestations of the seasonal cycle. It directly impacts nearly one third of the world’s population and also has substantial global influence. Using 27-year integrations of a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (Met Office Unified Model), we study changes in South Asian monsoon precipitation and circulation when horizontal resolution is increased from approximately 200 to 40 km at the equator (N96 to N512, 1.9 to 0.35◦). The high resolution, integration length and ensemble size of the dataset make this the most extensive dataset used to evaluate the resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon to date. We find a consistent pattern of JJAS precipitation and circulation changes as resolution increases, which include a slight increase in precipitation over peninsular India, changes in Indian and Indochinese orographic rain bands, increasing wind speeds in the Somali Jet, increasing precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands and decreasing precipitation over the northern Maritime Continent seas. To diagnose which resolution related processes cause these changes we compare them to published sensitivity experiments that change regional orography and coastlines. Our analysis indicates that improved resolution of the East African Highlands results in the improved representation of the Somali Jet and further suggests that improved resolution of orography over Indochina and the Maritime Continent results in more precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands at the expense of reduced precipitation further north. We also evaluate the resolution sensitivity of monsoon depressions and lows, which contribute more precipitation over northeast India at higher resolution. We conclude that while increasing resolution at these scales does not solve the many monsoon biases that exist in GCMs, it has a number of small, beneficial impacts

The South Atlantic Anticyclone as a key player for the representation of the tropical Atlantic climate in coupled climate models

The key role of the South Atlantic Anticyclone (SAA) on the seasonal cycle of the tropical Atlantic is investigated with a regionally coupled atmosphere–ocean model for two different coupled domains. Both domains include the equatorial Atlantic and a large portion of the northern tropical Atlantic, but one extends southward, and the other northwestward. The SAA is simulated as internal model variability in the former, and is prescribed as external forcing in the latter. In the first case, the model shows significant warm biases in sea surface temperature (SST) in the Angola-Benguela front zone. If the SAA is externally prescribed, these biases are substantially reduced. The biases are both of oceanic and atmospheric origin, and are influenced by ocean–atmosphere interactions in coupled runs. The strong SST austral summer biases are associated with a weaker SAA, which weakens the winds over the southeastern tropical Atlantic, deepens the thermocline and prevents the local coastal upwelling of colder water. The biases in the basins interior in this season could be related to the advection and eddy transport of the coastal warm anomalies. In winter, the deeper thermocline and atmospheric fluxes are probably the main biases sources. Biases in incoming solar radiation and thus cloudiness seem to be a secondary effect only observed in austral winter. We conclude that the external prescription of the SAA south of 20°S improves the simulation of the seasonal cycle over the tropical Atlantic, revealing the fundamental role of this anticyclone in shaping the climate over this region

Gendered Risk Perceptions Associated with Human-Wildlife Conflict: Implications for Participatory Conservation

This research aims to foster discourse about the extent to which gender is important to consider within the context of participatory approaches for biological conservation. Our objectives are to: (1) gender-disaggregate data about stakeholders' risk perceptions associated with human-wildlife conflict (HWC) in a participatory conservation context, and (2) highlight insights from characterizing gendered similarities and differences in the way people think about HWC-related risks. Two communal conservancies in Caprivi, Namibia served as case study sites. We analyzed data from focus groups (n = 2) to create gendered concept maps about risks to wildlife and livelihoods and any associations of those risks with HWC, and semi-structured interviews (n = 76; men = 38, women = 38) to measure explicit risk attitudes associated with HWC. Concept maps indicated some divergent perceptions in how groups characterized risks to wildlife and livelihoods; however, not only were identified risks to wildlife (e.g., pollution, hunting) dissimilar in some instances, descriptions of risks varied as well. Study groups reported similar risk perceptions associated with HWC with the exception of worry associated with HWC effects on local livelihoods. Gendered differences in risk perceptions may signal different priorities or incentives to participate in efforts to resolve HWC-related risks. Thus, although shared goals and interests may seem to be an obvious reason for cooperative wildlife management, it is not always obvious that management goals are shared. Opportunity exists to move beyond thinking about gender as an explanatory variable for understanding how different groups think about participating in conservation activities

Osteoprotegerin in Exosome-Like Vesicles from Human Cultured Tubular Cells and Urine

Urinary exosomes have been proposed as potential diagnostic tools. TNF superfamily cytokines and receptors may be present in exosomes and are expressed by proximal tubular cells. We have now studied the expression of selected TNF superfamily proteins in exosome-like vesicles from cultured human proximal tubular cells and human urine and have identified additional proteins in these vesicles by LC-MS/MS proteomics. Human proximal tubular cells constitutively released exosome-like vesicles that did not contain the TNF superfamily cytokines TRAIL or TWEAK. However, exosome-like vesicles contained osteoprotegerin (OPG), a TNF receptor superfamily protein, as assessed by Western blot, ELISA or selected reaction monitoring by nLC-(QQQ)MS/MS. Twenty-one additional proteins were identified in tubular cell exosomelike vesicles, including one (vitamin D binding protein) that had not been previously reported in exosome-like vesicles. Twelve were extracellular matrix proteins, including the basement membrane proteins type IV collagen, nidogen-1, agrin and fibulin-1. Urine from chronic kidney disease patients contained a higher amount of exosomal protein and exosomal OPG than urine from healthy volunteers. Specifically OPG was increased in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease urinary exosome-like vesicles and expressed by cystic epithelium in vivo. In conclusion, OPG is present in exosome-like vesicles secreted by proximal tubular epithelial cells and isolated from Chronic Kidney Disease urine.This work was supported by grants from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIIIRETIC REDINREN RD06/0016, RD12/0021, PI11/01854, PI10/00072 PI09/ 00641 and PS09/00447); Comunidad de Madrid (Fibroteam S2010/BMD-2321, S2010/BMD-2378); Sociedad Española de NefrologÍa; European Network (HEALTH F2-2008-200647); DIALOK European project LSHB-CT-2007-036644; Fundacion Lilly and IRSIN/FRIAT to JE; Programa Intensificación Actividad Investigadora (ISCIII/ Agencia Laín-Entralgo/CM) to AO; Instituto de Salud Carlos III (FIS PI11/01401, CP09/00229); and Fundación Conchita Rábago de Jiménez DÍaz to GAL. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscrip