Evaluating risk factor assumptions: a simulation-based approach

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Microsimulation models are an important tool for estimating the comparative effectiveness of interventions through prediction of individual-level disease outcomes for a hypothetical population. To estimate the effectiveness of interventions targeted toward high risk groups, the mechanism by which risk factors influence the natural history of disease must be specified. We propose a method for evaluating these risk factor assumptions as part of model-building.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used simulation studies to examine the impact of risk factor assumptions on the relative rate (RR) of colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality for a cohort with a risk factor compared to a cohort without the risk factor using an extension of the CRC-SPIN model for colorectal cancer. We also compared the impact of changing age at initiation of screening colonoscopy for different risk mechanisms.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Across CRC-specific risk factor mechanisms, the RR of CRC incidence and mortality decreased (towards one) with increasing age. The rate of change in RRs across age groups depended on both the risk factor mechanism and the strength of the risk factor effect. Increased non-CRC mortality attenuated the effect of CRC-specific risk factors on the RR of CRC when both were present. For each risk factor mechanism, earlier initiation of screening resulted in more life years gained, though the magnitude of life years gained varied across risk mechanisms.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Simulation studies can provide insight into both the effect of risk factor assumptions on model predictions and the type of data needed to calibrate risk factor models.</p

How to Obtain NNT from Cohen's d: Comparison of Two Methods

Background: In the literature we find many indices of size of treatment effect (effect size: ES). The preferred index of treatment effect in evidence-based medicine is the number needed to treat (NNT), while the most common one in the medical literature is Cohen’s d when the outcome is continuous. There is confusion about how to convert Cohen’s d into NNT. Methods: We conducted meta-analyses of individual patient data from 10 randomized controlled trials of second generation antipsychotics for schizophrenia (n = 4278) to produce Cohen’s d and NNTs for various definitions of response, using cutoffs of 10 % through 90 % reduction on the symptom severity scale. These actual NNTs were compared with NNTs calculated from Cohen’s d according to two proposed methods in the literature (Kraemer, et al., Biological Psychiatry, 2006; Furukawa, Lancet, 1999). Results: NNTs from Kraemer’s method overlapped with the actual NNTs in 56%, while those based on Furukawa’s method fell within the observed ranges of NNTs in 97 % of the examined instances. For various definitions of response corresponding with 10 % through 70 % symptom reduction where we observed a non-small number of responders, the degree of agreement for the former method was at a chance level (ANOVA ICC of 0.12, p = 0.22) but that for the latter method was ANOVA ICC of 0.86 (95%CI: 0.55 to 0.95, p,0.01)

‘Do i care?’ young adults' recalled experiences of early adolescent overweight and obesity: a qualitative study

&lt;p&gt;Objective: Individual behaviour change to reduce obesity requires awareness of, and concern about, weight. This paper therefore describes how young adults, known to have been overweight or obese during early adolescence, recalled early adolescent weight-related awareness and concerns. Associations between recalled concerns and weight-, health- and peer-related survey responses collected during adolescence are also examined.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Design: Qualitative semi-structured interviews with young adults; data compared with responses to self-report questionnaires obtained in adolescence.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Participants: A total of 35 participants, purposively sub-sampled at age 24 from a longitudinal study of a school year cohort, previously surveyed at ages 11, 13 and 15. Physical measures during previous surveys allowed identification of participants with a body mass index (BMI) indicative of overweight or obesity (based on British 1990 growth reference) during early adolescence. Overall, 26 had been obese, of whom 11 had BMI99.6th centile, whereas 9 had been overweight (BMI=95th–97.9th centile).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Measures: Qualitative interview responses describing teenage life, with prompts for school-, social- and health-related concerns. Early adolescent self-report questionnaire data on weight-worries, self-esteem, friends and victimisation (closed questions).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Results: Most, but not all recalled having been aware of their overweight. None referred to themselves as having been obese. None recalled weight-related health worries. Recollection of early adolescent obesity varied from major concerns impacting on much of an individual's life to almost no concern, with little relation to actual severity of overweight. Recalled concerns were not clearly patterned by gender, but young adult males recalling concerns had previously reported more worries about weight, lower self-esteem, fewer friends and more victimisation in early adolescence; no such pattern was seen among females. Conclusion: The popular image of the unhappy overweight teenager was not borne out. Many obese adolescents, although well aware of their overweight recalled neither major dissatisfaction nor concern. Weight-reduction behaviours are unlikely in such circumstances.&lt;/p&gt

Are Canadian General Internal Medicine training program graduates well prepared for their future careers?

BACKGROUND: At a time of increased need and demand for general internists in Canada, the attractiveness of generalist careers (including general internal medicine, GIM) has been falling as evidenced by the low number of residents choosing this specialty. One hypothesis for the lack of interest in a generalist career is lack of comfort with the skills needed to practice after training, and the mismatch between the tertiary care, inpatient training environment and "real life". This project was designed to determine perceived effectiveness of training for 10 years of graduates of Canadian GIM programs to assist in the development of curriculum and objectives for general internists that will meet the needs of graduates and ultimately society. METHODS: Mailed survey designed to explore perceived importance of training for and preparation for various aspects of Canadian GIM practice. After extensive piloting of the survey, including a pilot survey of two universities to improve the questionnaire, all graduates of the 16 universities over the previous ten years were surveyed. RESULTS: Gaps (difference between importance and preparation) were demonstrated in many of the CanMEDS 2000/2005(® )competencies. Medical problems of pregnancy, perioperative care, pain management, chronic care, ambulatory care and community GIM rotations were the medical expert areas with the largest gaps. Exposure to procedural skills was perceived to be lacking. Some procedural skills valued as important for current GIM trainees and performed frequently (example ambulatory ECG interpretation) had low preparation ratings by trainees. Other areas of perceived discrepancy between training and practice included: manager role (set up of an office), health advocate (counseling for prevention, for example smoking cessation), and professional (end of life issues, ethics). CONCLUSION: Graduates of Canadian GIM training programs over the last ten years have identified perceived gaps between training and important areas for practice. They have identified competencies that should be emphasized in Canadian GIM programs. Ongoing review of graduate's perceptions of training programs as it applies to their current practice is important to ensure ongoing appropriateness of training programs. This information will be used to strengthen GIM training programs in Canada

The hand of Homo naledi

A nearly complete right hand of an adult hominin was recovered from the Rising Star cave system, South Africa. Based on associated hominin material, the bones of this hand are attributed to Homo naledi. This hand reveals a long, robust thumb and derived wrist morphology that is shared with Neandertals and modern humans, and considered adaptive for intensified manual manipulation. However, the finger bones are longer and more curved than in most australopiths, indicating frequent use of the hand during life for strong grasping during locomotor climbing and suspension. These markedly curved digits in combination with an otherwise human-like wrist and palm indicate a significant degree of climbing, despite the derived nature of many aspects of the hand and other regions of the postcranial skeleton in H. naledi

Neutrophil Elastase Enhances Sputum Solubilization in Cystic Fibrosis Patients Receiving DNase Therapy

Cystic fibrosis patients suffer from chronic lung infection and inflammation due to the secretion of viscous sputum. Sputum viscosity is caused by extracellular DNA, some of which originates from the release of neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs). During NET formation neutrophil elastase (NE) partially processes histones to decondense chromatin. NE is abundant in CF sputum and is thought to contribute to tissue damage. Exogenous nucleases are a palliative treatment in CF as they promote sputum solubilization. We show that in a process reminiscent of NET formation, NE enhances sputum solubilization by cleaving histones to enhance the access of exogenous nucleases to DNA. In addition, we find that in Cf sputum NE is predominantly bound to DNA, which is known to downregulate its proteolytic activity and may restrict host tissue damage. The beneficial role of NE in CF sputum solubilization may have important implications for the development of CF therapies targeting NE

Predictors of outcome in infant and toddlers functional or behavioral disorders after a brief parent–infant psychotherapy

The efficacy of parent–child psychotherapies is widely recognized today. There are, however, less data on predictive factors for outcome in infants and toddlers and their parents. The aim of this study was to highlight predictive factors for outcome after a brief psychotherapy in a population of 49 infants and toddlers aged 3–30 months presenting functional or behavioral disorders. Two assessments were performed, the first before treatment and the second a month after the end of the therapy. These assessments included an evaluation of the child’s symptoms, and of depressive or anxiety symptoms in the parents. The assessments after therapy show complete or partial improvement in the child’s symptoms for nearly three quarters, and a decrease in the number of anxious and depressive mothers, and also in the number of depressive fathers. Three independent factors appear as predictive of unfavorable outcome for the child: frequency and intensity of behavioral problems and fears, and the absence of the father at more than two-thirds of consultations. The outcome for the mother is associated solely with her anxiety score at the start of the therapy. This study underlines the particular difficulties involved in the treatment of infants and toddlers presenting behavioral disturbances and emotional difficulties, and the value of involving the father in treatment

Absence of TERT promoter mutations in colorectal precursor lesions and cancer

Hotspot mutations (c.-124bp G > A and c.-146bp G > A) in the promoter region of the TERT gene have been recently described in several types of solid tumors, including glioma, bladder, thyroid, liver and skin neoplasms. However, knowledge with respect to colorectal precursor lesions and cancer is scarce. In the present study we aimed to determine the frequency of hotspot TERT promoter mutations in 145 Brazilian patients, including 103 subjects with precursor lesions and 42 with colorectal carcinomas, and we associated the presence of such mutations with the patients clinical-pathological features. The mutation analysis was conclusive in 123 cases, and none of the precursor and colorectal carcinoma cases showed TERT promoter mutations. We conclude that TERT mutations are not a driving factor in colorectal carcinogenesis.This study was financially partially supported by Barretos Cancer Hospital Internal Research Funds (PAIP) to participating authorsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Acute Histologic Chorioamnionitis at Term: Nearly Always Noninfectious

Background: The link between histologic acute chorioamnionitis and infection is well established in preterm deliveries, but less well-studied in term pregnancies, where infection is much less common. Methodology/Principal Findings We conducted a secondary analysis among 195 low-risk women with term pregnancies enrolled in a randomized trial. Histologic and microbiologic evaluation of placentas included anaerobic and aerobic cultures (including mycoplasma/ureaplasma species) as well as PCR. Infection was defined as ≥1,000 cfu of a single known pathogen or a ≥2 log difference in counts for a known pathogen versus other organisms in a mixed culture. Placental membranes were scored and categorized as: no chorioamnionitis, Grade 1 (subchorionitis and patchy acute chorioamnionitis), or Grade 2 (severe, confluent chorioamnionitis). Grade 1 or grade 2 histologic chorioamnionitis was present in 34% of placentas (67/195), but infection was present in only 4% (8/195). Histologic chorioamnionitis was strongly associated with intrapartum fever >38°C [69% (25/36) fever, 26% (42/159) afebrile, P<.0001]. Fever occurred in 18% (n = 36) of women. Most febrile women [92% (33/36)] had received epidural for pain relief, though the association with fever was present with and without epidural. The association remained significant in a logistic regression controlling for potential confounders (OR = 5.8, 95% CI = 2.2,15.0). Histologic chorioamnionitis was also associated with elevated serum levels of interleukin-8 (median = 1.3 pg/mL no histologic chorioamnionitis, 1.5 pg/mL Grade 1, 2.1 pg/mL Grade 2, P = 0.05) and interleukin-6 (median levels = 2.2 pg/mL no chorioamnionitis, 5.3 pg/mL Grade 1, 24.5 pg/mL Grade 2, P = 0.02) at admission for delivery as well as higher admission WBC counts (mean = 12,000cells/mm$^3$ no chorioamnionitis, 13,400cells/mm$^3$ Grade 1, 15,700cells/mm$^3$ Grade 2, P = 0.0005). Conclusion/Significance: Our results suggest histologic chorioamnionitis at term most often results from a noninfectious inflammatory process. It was strongly associated with fever, most of which was related to epidural used for pain relief. A more ‘activated’ maternal immune system at admission was also associated with histologic chorioamnionitis

Maintenance of response with atypical antipsychotics in the treatment of schizophrenia: a post-hoc analysis of 5 double-blind, randomized clinical trials

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>How long an antipsychotic is effective in maintaining response is important in choosing the correct treatment for people with schizophrenia. This post-hoc analysis describes maintenance of response over 24 or 28 weeks in people treated for schizophrenia with olanzapine, risperidone, quetiapine, ziprasidone, or aripiprazole.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This was a post-hoc analysis using data from 5 double-blind, randomized, comparative trials of 24 or 28 weeks duration in which olanzapine was compared to risperidone (1 study; N = 339), quetiapine (1 study; N = 346), ziprasidone (2 studies; N = 548 and 394) or aripiprazole (1 study; N = 566) for treatment of schizophrenia. For each study, time to loss of response in patients who met criteria for response at Week 8 and the proportion of patients who lost response following Week 8 were compared by treatment group. The number needed to treat (NNT) with olanzapine rather than comparator to avoid loss of one additional responder over 24 or 28 weeks of treatment was calculated for each study.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Time maintained in response was significantly longer (p < .05) for olanzapine compared to risperidone, quetiapine, and ziprasidone. Olanzapine did not significantly differ from aripiprazole. The proportion of patients who lost response was significantly lower for olanzapine versus risperidone, quetiapine, and ziprasidone (p < .05). NNTs to avoid one additional patient with loss of response with olanzapine versus risperidone, quetiapine and ziprasidone were favourable, ranging from 5 to 9.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>During 24 and 28 weeks of treatment, the antipsychotics studied differed in the time that treated patients with schizophrenia remained in response and the proportion of patients who lost response. Olanzapine treatment resulted in a consistent and statistically significant advantage in maintenance of response compared to treatment with risperidone, quetiapine and ziprasidone; but not compared to treatment with aripiprazole.</p