Optimising spatial accessibility to inform rationalisation of specialist health services

BACKGROUND: In an era of budget constraints for healthcare services, strategies for provision of services that improve quality whilst saving costs are highly valued. A proposed means to achieve this is consolidation of services into fewer specialist centres, but this may lead to reduced spatial accessibility. We describe a methodology which includes implementing a combinatorial optimisation algorithm to derive combinations of services which optimise spatial accessibility in the context of service rationalisation, and demonstrate its use through the exemplar of tuberculosis clinics in London. METHODS: Our methodology involves (1) identifying the spatial distribution of the patient population using the service; (2) calculating patient travel times to each service location, and (3) using a combinatorial optimisation algorithm to identify subsets of locations that minimise overall travel time. We estimated travel times for tuberculosis patients notified in London between 2010 and 2013 to each of 29 clinics in the city. Travel time estimates were derived from the Transport for London Journey Planner service. We identified the subset of clinics that would provide the shortest overall travel time for each possible number of clinic subsets (1-28). RESULTS: Based on the 29 existing clinic locations, mean estimated travel time to clinics used by 12,061 tuberculosis patients in London was 33 min; and mean time to their nearest clinics was 28 min. Using optimum combinations of clinic locations, and assuming that patients attended their nearest clinics, a mean travel time of less than 45 min could be achieved with three clinics; of 34 min with ten clinics, and of less than 30 min with 18 clinics. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a methodological approach to optimise spatial accessibility which can be used to inform rationalisation of health services. In urban conurbations, this may enable service reorganisation which increases quality and efficiency without substantially affecting spatial accessibility. This approach could be used to inform planning of service reorganisations, but may not be generalisable to rural areas or smaller urban centres

Spatial methods for infectious disease outbreak investigations: systematic literature review

Investigations of infectious disease outbreaks are conventionally framed in terms of person, time and place. Although geographic information systems have increased the range of tools available, spatial analyses are used relatively infrequently. We conducted a systematic review of published reports of outbreak investigations worldwide to estimate the prevalence of spatial methods, describe the techniques applied and explore their utility. We identified 80 reports using spatial methods published between 1979 and 2013, ca 0.4% of the total number of published outbreaks. Environmental or waterborne infections were the most commonly investigated, and most reports were from the United Kingdom. A range of techniques were used, including simple dot maps, cluster analyses and modelling approaches. Spatial tools were usefully applied throughout investigations, from initial confirmation of the outbreak to describing and analysing cases and communicating findings. They provided valuable insights that led to public health actions, but there is scope for much wider implementation and development of new methods.</jats:p

Twenty years and counting: epidemiology of an outbreak of isoniazid-resistant tuberculosis in England and Wales, 1995 to 2014

An outbreak of isoniazid-resistant tuberculosis first identified in London has now been ongoing for 20 years, making it the largest drug-resistant outbreak of tuberculosis documented to date worldwide. We identified culture-confirmed cases with indistinguishable molecular strain types and extracted demographic, clinical, microbiological and social risk factor data from surveillance systems. We summarised changes over time and used kernel-density estimation and k-function analysis to assess geographic clustering. From 1995 to 2014, 508 cases were reported, with a declining trend in recent years. Overall, 70% were male (n = 360), 60% born in the United Kingdom (n = 306), 39% white (n = 199), and 26% black Caribbean (n = 134). Median age increased from 25 years in the first 5 years to 42 in the last 5. Approximately two thirds of cases reported social risk factors: 45% drug use (n = 227), 37% prison link (n = 189), 25% homelessness (n = 125) and 13% alcohol dependence (n = 64). Treatment was completed at 12 months by 52% of cases (n = 206), and was significantly lower for those with social risk factors (p < 0.05), but increased over time for all patients (p < 0.05). The outbreak remained focused in north London throughout. Control of this outbreak requires continued efforts to prevent and treat further active cases through targeted screening and enhanced case management

Long term geological record of a global deep subsurface microbial habitat in sand injection complexes

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Large Scale Structure of the Universe

Galaxies are not uniformly distributed in space. On large scales the Universe displays coherent structure, with galaxies residing in groups and clusters on scales of ~1-3 Mpc/h, which lie at the intersections of long filaments of galaxies that are >10 Mpc/h in length. Vast regions of relatively empty space, known as voids, contain very few galaxies and span the volume in between these structures. This observed large scale structure depends both on cosmological parameters and on the formation and evolution of galaxies. Using the two-point correlation function, one can trace the dependence of large scale structure on galaxy properties such as luminosity, color, stellar mass, and track its evolution with redshift. Comparison of the observed galaxy clustering signatures with dark matter simulations allows one to model and understand the clustering of galaxies and their formation and evolution within their parent dark matter halos. Clustering measurements can determine the parent dark matter halo mass of a given galaxy population, connect observed galaxy populations at different epochs, and constrain cosmological parameters and galaxy evolution models. This chapter describes the methods used to measure the two-point correlation function in both redshift and real space, presents the current results of how the clustering amplitude depends on various galaxy properties, and discusses quantitative measurements of the structures of voids and filaments. The interpretation of these results with current theoretical models is also presented.Comment: Invited contribution to be published in Vol. 8 of book "Planets, Stars, and Stellar Systems", Springer, series editor T. D. Oswalt, volume editor W. C. Keel, v2 includes additional references, updated to match published versio

Turnover rates of nitrogen stable isotopes in the salt marsh mummichog, Fundulus heteroclitus, following a laboratory diet switch

Author Posting. © The Authors, 2005. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer-Verlag GmbH for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Oecologia 147 (2006): 391-395, doi:10.1007/s00442-005-0277-z.Nitrogen stable isotopes are frequently used in ecological studies to estimate trophic position and determine movement patterns. Knowledge of tissue-specific turnover and nitrogen discrimination for the study organisms is important for accurate interpretation of isotopic data. We measured δ15 N turnover in liver and muscle tissue in juvenile mummichogs, Fundulus heteroclitus, following a laboratory diet switch. Liver tissue turned over significantly faster than muscle tissue suggesting the potential for a multiple tissue stable isotope approach to study movement and trophic position over different time scales; metabolism contributed significantly to isotopic turnover for both liver and muscle. Nitrogen diet-tissue discrimination was estimated at between 0.0 and 1.2‰ for liver and –1.0 and 0.2‰ for muscle. This is the first experiment to demonstrate a significant variation in δ15 N turnover between liver and muscle tissues in a fish species.This study was funded by NSF LTER grant OCE-9726921

Dynamics in numbers of group-roosting individuals in relation to pair-sleeping occurrence and onset of egg-laying in European Bee-eaters Merops apiaster

Sleeping in the nest at the beginning of the breeding season is common for birds nesting in cavities. Here, we report evidence that European Bee-eaters Merops apiaster sleep in pairs in the nesting burrow. In 3.2 % of the nest checks we found two individuals sleeping together. This behaviour ceased once hatching started. A decrease in the number of birds at a communal roost coincided with the incidences of pair-sleeping and initiation of egg-laying. Thus, checking the burrows of European Bee-eaters at beginning of the breeding season increases the chance of observing pair-sleeping

Stable isotope analysis provides new information on winter habitat use of declining avian migrants that is relevant to their conservation

Winter habitat use and the magnitude of migratory connectivity are important parameters when assessing drivers of the marked declines in avian migrants. Such information is unavailable for most species. We use a stable isotope approach to assess these factors for three declining African-Eurasian migrants whose winter ecology is poorly known: wood warbler Phylloscopus sibilatrix, house martin Delichon urbicum and common swift Apus apus. Spatially segregated breeding wood warbler populations (sampled across a 800 km transect), house martins and common swifts (sampled across a 3,500 km transect) exhibited statistically identical intra-specific carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios in winter grown feathers. Such patterns are compatible with a high degree of migratory connectivity, but could arise if species use isotopically similar resources at different locations. Wood warbler carbon isotope ratios are more depleted than typical for African-Eurasian migrants and are compatible with use of moist lowland forest. The very limited variance in these ratios indicates specialisation on isotopically restricted resources, which may drive the similarity in wood warbler populations' stable isotope ratios and increase susceptibility to environmental change within its wintering grounds. House martins were previously considered to primarily use moist montane forest during the winter, but this seems unlikely given the enriched nature of their carbon isotope ratios. House martins use a narrower isotopic range of resources than the common swift, indicative of increased specialisation or a relatively limited wintering range; both factors could increase house martins' vulnerability to environmental change. The marked variance in isotope ratios within each common swift population contributes to the lack of population specific signatures and indicates that the species is less vulnerable to environmental change in sub-Saharan Africa than our other focal species. Our findings demonstrate how stable isotope research can contribute to understanding avian migrants' winter ecology and conservation status

Comparison of flow characteristics and vascular reactivity of radial artery and long saphenous vein grafts [NCT00139399]

BACKGROUND: The morphological and functional differences between arteries and veins may have implications on coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) survival. Although subjective differences have been observed between radial artery (RA) and long saphenous venous (LSV) grafts, these have not been quantified. This study assessed and compared the flow characteristics and in-vivo graft flow responses of RA and LSV aorto-coronary grafts. METHODS: Angiograms from 52 males taken 3.7 ± 1.0 months after CABG surgery were analyzed using adjusted Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) frame count. Graft and target coronary artery dimensions were measured using quantitative coronary angiography. Estimated TIMI velocity (V(E)) and volume flow (F(E)) were then calculated. A further 7 patients underwent in-vivo graft flow responses assessments to adenosine, acetylcholine and isosorbide dinitrate (ISDN) using intravascular Doppler. RESULTS: The V(E )for RA grafts was significantly greater than LSV grafts (P = 0.002), however there was no difference in volume F(E )(P = 0.20). RA grafts showed positive endothelium-dependent and -independent vasodilatation, and LSV grafts showed no statistically significant response to adenosine and acetylcholine. There was no difference in flow velocity or volume responses. Seven RA grafts (11%) had compromised patency (4 (6%) ≥ 50% stenosis in the proximal/distal anastomoses, and 3 (5%) diffuse narrowing). Thirty-seven (95%) LSV grafts achieved perfect patency and 2 (5%) were occluded. CONCLUSION: The flow characteristics and flow responses of the RA graft suggest that it is a more physiological conduit than the LSV graft. The clinical relevance of the balance between imperfect patency versus the more physiological vascular function in the RA graft may be revealed by the 5-year angiographic follow-up of this trial

Measuring our universe from galaxy redshift surveys

Galaxy redshift surveys have achieved significant progress over the last couple of decades. Those surveys tell us in the most straightforward way what our local universe looks like. While the galaxy distribution traces the bright side of the universe, detailed quantitative analyses of the data have even revealed the dark side of the universe dominated by non-baryonic dark matter as well as more mysterious dark energy (or Einstein's cosmological constant). We describe several methodologies of using galaxy redshift surveys as cosmological probes, and then summarize the recent results from the existing surveys. Finally we present our views on the future of redshift surveys in the era of Precision Cosmology.Comment: 82 pages, 31 figures, invited review article published in Living Reviews in Relativity, http://www.livingreviews.org/lrr-2004-