The Calibration of Traffic Simulation Models : Report on the assessment of different Goodness of Fit measures and Optimization Algorithms MULTITUDE Project – COST Action TU0903

In the last decades, simulation optimization has received considerable attention from both researchers and practitioners. Simulation optimization is the process of finding the best values of some decision variables for a system whose performance is evaluated using the output of a simulation model. A possible example of simulation optimization is the model calibration. In traffic modelling this topic is particularly relevant since the solutions to the methodological issues arising when setting up a calibration study cannot be posed independently. This calls for methodologies able to check the robustness of a calibration framework as well as further investigations of the issue, in order to identify possible “classes” of problems to be treated in a similar way. Therefore in the present work, first a general method for verifying a traffic micro-simulation calibration procedure (suitable in general for simulation optimization) is described, based on a test with synthetic data. Then it is applied, my means of two different case studies, to draw inferences on the effect that different combinations of parameters to calibrate, optimization algorithm, measures of Goodness of Fit and noise in the data may have on the optimization problem. Results showed the importance of verifying the calibration procedure with synthetic data. In addition they ascertained the need for global optimization solutions, giving new insights into the topic. Research contained within this paper benefited from the participation in EU COST Action TU0903 MULTITUDEJRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

A meta-framework for sustainability assessment

This paper addresses the distinction between integrated assessment and sustainability assessment (SA), and, using a systemic approach, outlines how to move from integrated assessment to SA. The fundamental differences may be identified at three levels: ontological, methodological and epistemological. We present a novel methodological framework for SA, based on a literature meta-review of multi-scale and multi-purpose appraisal methodologies and related methods, models, and indicators. SA is considered as a structured procedure encompassing different field-specific analytical methods and models, depending on the specific application and decision context. External inputs to the methodology are the “values” to be considered in the analysis and the (political) boundaries defined for them, including also the sustainability framework in which the analysis is carried out . Internal elements of the methodology comprise the choice of the approach (e.g. “what-if” vs. “what-to”), the scenario settings and the possible analytical tools and indicators for the numerical analysis. Uncertainty quantification tools are then key elements of the assessment framework. We discuss the relevance of and challenges for the development of SA, with a specific focus on applicability in specific decision contexts, highlighted.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

Development of Sustainability Scenarios

The purpose of the report is twofold. To begin with, it seeks to set out the objectives of, and methodologies for, the development of socio-economic and environmental scenarios for the European Union up until 2050f. In addition, the report undertakes to place scenario building in a wider political and socio-economic context. The report is structured as follows. In section II, the report compares forecasts and scenarios with a view to highlight common aspects and differences. In section III, the report discusses in more detail the purpose of scenario building against the background of the policy objective to reach sustainability. Section IV, finally, examines some of the methodological issues involved in scenario building and sketches out how scenarios can be built in a meaningful and feasible manner. The report is largely exploratory in nature as it seeks to identify critical issues and questions. The report is, in this respect, akin to one of the key purposes of scenario building itself. Accordingly, scenarios are not only developed as long range planning tool, but also with a view to foster and facilitate communication and reflection.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

Potential Impact of Electric Vehicles on the Electric Supply System. A Case Study for the Province of Milan, Italy

The study analyses the impact of the electric vehicles¿ recharging activities on the electric supply system for the Province of Milan with a 2030 time horizon. In particular, the impact is seen both in terms of total electric energy consumption and in power requested to the grid. Because of the long recharging time required by the cars batteries, the probability to have thousands of cars contemporary plugged-in is not negligible. The key issue of the study is a more plausible (in the authors¿ opinion) estimation of the potential electric vehicles market share evolution in the time period considered. The results obtained clearly show that without an appropriate regulation (e.g. the intelligent integration of electric vehicles into the existing power grid as decentralized and flexible energy storage), electric vehicles could heavily impact on the daily requested electric power.JRC.H.4-Transport and air qualit

Performance Analyses of EGEE-like Grids in Asia and Latin America

Evaluate the status of several EGEE-like infrastructures outside of Europ

Assessment of the monitoring methodology for CO₂ emissions from heavy duty vehicles: Pilot phase test-campaign report and analysis of the ex-post verification options

Following a request from DG-Clima and DG-GROW, JRC launched a test-campaign in order to investigate the validity, accuracy and plausibility of the methodology proposed for the verification of the certified CO2 emissions from Heavy Duty Vehicles (aka ex-post verification methodology). In addition scope of the test campaign was to demonstrate the representativeness of the CO2 emissions calculations made by the official simulator (VECTO) by comparing against the actual performance of vehicles. Experiments were conducted on four Euro VI trucks, both on the chassis dyno and on the road with the aim of understanding the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches proposed. Two main verification approaches were investigated, steady state measurements in chassis-dyno / controlled conditions, and measurements under transient conditions on chassis-dyno and actual on-road operating conditions. The official simulation software (VECTO) was used for simulating the operation of vehicles under the different test conditions. The key conclusion of the test campaign is that an ex-post verification method which is based on transient, on-road tests is possible for trucks and comes with the advantage that it could potentially cover also other vehicle types which are difficult to be validated under steady state conditions in a laboratory or on a test track under controlled conditions. However, there is a clear need to work on the details of the test protocol to be finally implemented, define boundary conditions for transient tests on road, and establish the necessary acceptance and rejection margins for any such validation. Finally, additional testing is necessary in order to calculate accurately any systematic deviation between the officially reported, simulated, CO2 values and those actually occurring in reality. VECTO results should be periodically controlled and assessed in order to make sure that its CO2 estimates remain representative and minimize the possibility that discrepancies will occur in the future between the officially reported and actually experienced fuel consumption.JRC.C.4-Sustainable Transpor

Concerning the Lewis acidity of NO+ and NO2/+ as measured by their affinity to selected bases

Recently published theoretical results concerning the NO+ and NO2/+ gas-phase affinities of a few selected molecules, as well as the correlation between the above quantities and the corresponding proton affinities, are examined in the context of the much larger body of experimental and theoretical data already reported in the literature.Fil: Cacace, Fulvio. Università degli studi di Roma "La Sapienza"; ItaliaFil: Ciuffo, Gladys Maria. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Luis. Instituto Multidisciplinario de Investigaciones Biológicas de San Luis. Universidad Nacional de San Luis. Facultad de Ciencias Físico Matemáticas y Naturales. Instituto Multidisciplinario de Investigaciones Biológicas de San Luis; ArgentinaFil: De Petris, Giulia. Università degli studi di Roma "La Sapienza"; Itali