Universalism vs. Particularism: On the Limits of Major Power Order

Relations between major powers can be described as shifting between universalism and particularism. In periods of universalism, major powers try to work out acceptable rules of behavior among one another, whereas in periods of particularism, they emphasize special interests of special powers. The way historians see shifts in major power relations since 1816 largely follows such a classification. By comparing the policies pursued during four periods of universalism and four periods of particularism, as well as analysing what ended or initiated such periods, the limits of major power universalism can be evaluated. Particularly, the short-comings of the recent period of detente are illuminated. Also some principles for a more enduring form of universalism are suggested.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68816/2/10.1177_002234338402100304.pd

A report on the health and social care listening event

The purpose of the Listening Event was to enable a wide range of people, including professionals working in statutory, voluntary and other organisations and members of the public, to ‘have a say’ about health and social care and what we as a University can do for and with these partners and the public. We particularly wanted to hear about key concerns of the University such as: • Strengthening community engagement and partnerships • Health and social care training we should be providing, for whom, and how this is delivered • Ideas relating to the University themes including media, use of space and buildings, human rights, social justice and security • Research topics we should be addressing However the main strength of the Listening Event approach is that topics for discussion are mostly led by participants who attend. On this occasion, the discussion topics were very much focused on the concerns of participants and lots of information and ideas were generated. The task now is for the event planning team to review the discussion notes and identify what can be addressed and how, in the short, medium and long term. This planning will be taking place over the Autumn in 2011, and any participants or readers of this report are more than welcome to get in touch to work with us or add their views. The purpose of this report is to record all discussion summaries for sharing amongst participants and others. It is important that participants especially get to read what others had said at the event. The report will lead to changes in University practices such as the content of some of our courses and new business ideas and relationships will also be explored. The event itself provided a useful means of public engagement that others may wish to adopt

Accounting for International War: The State of the Discipline

In studies of war it is important to observe that the processes leading to so frequent an event as conflict are not necessarily those that lead to so infrequent an event as war. Also, many models fail to recognize that a phenomenon irregularly distributed in time and space, such as war, cannot be explained on the basis of relatively invariant phenomena. Much research on periodicity in the occurrence of war has yielded little result, suggesting that the direction should now be to focus on such variables as diffusion and contagion. Structural variables, such as bipolarity, show contradictory results with some clear inter-century differences. Bipolarity, some results suggest, might have different effects on different social entities. A considerable number of studies analysing dyadic variables show a clear connection between equal capabilities among contending nations and escalation of conflict into war. Finally, research into national attributes often points to strength and geographical location as important variables. In general, the article concludes, there is room for modest optimism, as research into the question of war is no longer moving in non-cumulative circles. Systematic research is producing results and there is even a discernible tendency of convergence, in spite of a great diversity in theoretical orientations.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/69148/2/10.1177_002234338101800101.pd

Saving Human Lives: What Complexity Science and Information Systems can Contribute

We discuss models and data of crowd disasters, crime, terrorism, war and disease spreading to show that conventional recipes, such as deterrence strategies, are often not effective and sufficient to contain them. Many common approaches do not provide a good picture of the actual system behavior, because they neglect feedback loops, instabilities and cascade effects. The complex and often counter-intuitive behavior of social systems and their macro-level collective dynamics can be better understood by means of complexity science. We highlight that a suitable system design and management can help to stop undesirable cascade effects and to enable favorable kinds of self-organization in the system. In such a way, complexity science can help to save human lives.Comment: 67 pages, 25 figures; accepted for publication in Journal of Statistical Physics [for related work see http://www.futurict.eu/

Will We See Helping Hands? Predicting Civil War Mediation and Likely Success

We examine whether features highlighted as important for mediation in existing research allow us to predict when we will see mediation and likely success out-of-sample. We assess to what extent information about the characteristics of the conflicting dyads and conflict history can be evaluated ex ante and improve our ability to predict when conflicts will see mediation as well as when peaceful solutions are more likely to follow from mediation. We justify that the information used to generate predictions through the model can be assessed ex ante, using the ongoing conflict in Syria as an example. Our results suggest that a two stage model of mediation and success seems to do relatively well overall in predicting when mediation is likely to occur, but notably less well in predicting the outcome of mediation. This may reflect how ex ante observable structural characteristics are likely to influence willingness to mediate, while the outcome of mediation to a large extent will be influenced by unobservable characteristics or private information and how these are influenced by mediation. We discuss the usefulness of out-of-sample evaluation in studying conflict management and suggest future directions for improving our ability to forecast mediation