Metrics of progress in the understanding and management of threats to Australian birds

Although evidence‐based approaches have become commonplace for determining the success of conservation measures for the management of threatened taxa, there are no standard metrics for assessing progress in research or management. We developed 5 metrics to meet this need for threatened taxa and to quantify the need for further action and effective alleviation of threats. These metrics (research need, research achievement, management need, management achievement, and percent threat reduction) can be aggregated to examine trends for an individual taxon or for threats across multiple taxa. We tested the utility of these metrics by applying them to Australian threatened birds, which appears to be the first time that progress in research and management of threats has been assessed for all threatened taxa in a faunal group at a continental scale. Some research has been conducted on nearly three‐quarters of known threats to taxa, and there is a clear understanding of how to alleviate nearly half of the threats with the highest impact. Some management has been attempted on nearly half the threats. Management outcomes ranged from successful trials to complete mitigation of the threat, including for one‐third of high‐impact threats. Progress in both research and management tended to be greater for taxa that were monitored or occurred on oceanic islands. Predation by cats had the highest potential threat score. However, there has been some success reducing the impact of cat predation, so climate change (particularly drought), now poses the greatest threat to Australian threatened birds. Our results demonstrate the potential for the proposed metrics to encapsulate the major trends in research and management of both threats and threatened taxa and provide a basis for international comparisons of evidence‐based conservation science

Emergent Semiclassical Time in Quantum Gravity. I. Mechanical Models

Strategies intended to resolve the problem of time in quantum gravity by means of emergent or hidden timefunctions are considered in the arena of relational particle toy models. In situations with `heavy' and `light' degrees of freedom, two notions of emergent semiclassical WKB time emerge; these are furthermore equivalent to two notions of emergent classical `Leibniz--Mach--Barbour' time. I futhermore study the semiclassical approach, in a geometric phase formalism, extended to include linear constraints, and with particular care to make explicit those approximations and assumptions used. I propose a new iterative scheme for this in the cosmologically-motivated case with one heavy degree of freedom. I find that the usual semiclassical quantum cosmology emergence of time comes hand in hand with the emergence of other qualitatively significant terms, including back-reactions on the heavy subsystem and second time derivatives. I illustrate my analysis by taking it further for relational particle models with linearly-coupled harmonic oscillator potentials. As these examples are exactly soluble by means outside the semiclassical approach, they are additionally useful for testing the justifiability of some of the approximations and assumptions habitually made in the semiclassical approach to quantum cosmology. Finally, I contrast the emergent semiclassical timefunction with its hidden dilational Euler time counterpart.Comment: References Update

Phenomenology of the Lense-Thirring effect in the Solar System

Recent years have seen increasing efforts to directly measure some aspects of the general relativistic gravitomagnetic interaction in several astronomical scenarios in the solar system. After briefly overviewing the concept of gravitomagnetism from a theoretical point of view, we review the performed or proposed attempts to detect the Lense-Thirring effect affecting the orbital motions of natural and artificial bodies in the gravitational fields of the Sun, Earth, Mars and Jupiter. In particular, we will focus on the evaluation of the impact of several sources of systematic uncertainties of dynamical origin to realistically elucidate the present and future perspectives in directly measuring such an elusive relativistic effect.Comment: LaTex, 51 pages, 14 figures, 22 tables. Invited review, to appear in Astrophysics and Space Science (ApSS). Some uncited references in the text now correctly quoted. One reference added. A footnote adde

Intensified dose of cyclophosphamide with G-CSF support versus standard dose combined with platinum in first-line treatment of advanced ovarian cancer a randomised study from the GINECO group

ICON3 trial results have suggested that CAP and carboplatin–taxol regimens as first-line treatment of advanced ovarian cancer (AOC) yield similar survival. We explored the impact of increased dose of cyclophosphamide in a modified CAP regimen on the disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) of AOC patients. From February 1994 to June 1997, 164 patients were randomised to receive six cycles every 3 weeks of either standard CEP (S) combining cyclophosphamide (C), 500 mg m−2, epirubicin (E) 50 mg m−2, and cisplatin (P) 75 mg m−2 or intensive CEP (I) with E and P at the same doses, but with (C) 1800 mg m−2 and filgrastim 5 μg kg−1 per day × 10 days. Response was evaluated at second-look surgery. Patient characteristics were well balanced. Except for grade 3–4 neutropaenia (S: 54%, I: 38% of cycles), Arm1 presented a significantly more important toxicity: infection requiring antibiotics, grade 3–4 thrombocytopaenia, anaemia, nausea-vomiting, diarrhoea, mucositis. Median follow-up was 84 months. DFS (15.9 vs 14.8 months) and OS (33 vs 30 months) were not significantly different between S and I (P>0.05). Increasing cyclophosphamide dose by more than 3 times with filgrastim support in the modified CAP regimen CEP induces more toxicity but not better efficacy in AOC

Estimating the number of colorectal cancer patients treated with anti-tumour therapy in 2015: the analysis of the Czech National Cancer Registry

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Colorectal cancer (CRC) represents a serious health care problem in the Czech Republic, introducing a need for a prospective modelling of the incidence and prevalence rates. The prevalence of patients requiring anti-tumour therapy is also of great importance, as it is directly associated with planning of health care resources.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This work proposes a population-based model for the estimation of stage-specific prevalence of CRC patients who will require active anti-tumour therapy in a given year. Its applicability is documented on records of the Czech National Cancer Registry (CNCR), which is used to estimate the number of patients potentially treated with anti-tumour therapy in the Czech Republic in 2015.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Several scenarios are adopted to cover the plausible development of the incidence and survival rates, and the probability of an anti-tumour therapy initiation. Based on the scenarios, the model predicts an increase in CRC prevalence from 13% to 30% in comparison with the situation in 2008. Moreover, the model predicts that 10,074 to 11,440 CRC patients will be indicated for anti-tumour therapy in the Czech Republic in 2015. Considering all patients with terminal cancer recurrence and all patients primarily diagnosed in stage IV, it is predicted that 3,485 to 4,469 CRC patients will be treated for the metastatic disease in 2015, which accounts for more than one third (34-40%) of all CRC patients treated this year.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A new model for the estimation of the number of CRC patients requiring active anti-tumour therapy is proposed in this paper. The model respects the clinical stage as the primary stratification factor and utilizes solely the population-based cancer registry data. Thus, no specific hospital data records are needed in the proposed approach. Regarding the short-term prediction of the CRC burden in the Czech Republic, the model confirms a continuous increase in the burden that must be accounted for in the future planning of health care in the Czech Republic.</p

Effects of Glyphosate and its Formulation, Roundup, on Reproduction in Zebrafish (Danio rerio)

This is an open access article that is freely available in ORE or from the publisher's web site. Please cite the published version.Copyright © 2014 American Chemical SocietyRoundup and its active ingredient glyphosate are among the most widely used herbicides worldwide and may contaminate surface waters. Research suggests both Roundup and glyphosate induce oxidative stress in fish and may also cause reproductive toxicity in mammalian systems. We aimed to investigate the reproductive effects of Roundup and glyphosate in fish and the potential associated mechanisms of toxicity. To do this, we conducted a 21-day exposure of breeding zebrafish (Danio rerio) to 0.01, 0.5, and 10 mg/L (glyphosate acid equivalent) Roundup and 10 mg/L glyphosate. 10 mg/L glyphosate reduced egg production but not fertilization rate in breeding colonies. Both 10 mg/L Roundup and glyphosate increased early stage embryo mortalities and premature hatching. However, exposure during embryogenesis alone did not increase embryo mortality, suggesting that this effect was caused primarily by exposure during gametogenesis. Transcript profiling of the gonads revealed 10 mg/L Roundup and glyphosate induced changes in the expression of cyp19a1 and esr1 in the ovary and hsd3b2, cat, and sod1 in the testis. Our results demonstrate that these chemicals cause reproductive toxicity in zebrafish, although only at high concentrations unlikely to occur in the environment, and likely mechanisms of toxicity include disruption of the steroidogenic biosynthesis pathway and oxidative stress.Natural Environment Research Counci

Changes in the distribution of red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in urban areas in Great Britain: findings and limitations of a media-driven nationwide survey

Urbanization is one of the major forms of habitat alteration occurring at the present time. Although this is typically deleterious to biodiversity, some species flourish within these human-modified landscapes, potentially leading to negative and/or positive interactions between people and wildlife. Hence, up-to-date assessment of urban wildlife populations is important for developing appropriate management strategies. Surveying urban wildlife is limited by land partition and private ownership, rendering many common survey techniques difficult. Garnering public involvement is one solution, but this method is constrained by the inherent biases of non-standardised survey effort associated with voluntary participation. We used a television-led media approach to solicit national participation in an online sightings survey to investigate changes in the distribution of urban foxes in Great Britain and to explore relationships between urban features and fox occurrence and sightings density. Our results show that media-based approaches can generate a large national database on the current distribution of a recognisable species. Fox distribution in England and Wales has changed markedly within the last 25 years, with sightings submitted from 91% of urban areas previously predicted to support few or no foxes. Data were highly skewed with 90% of urban areas having &lt;30 fox sightings per 1000 people km-2. The extent of total urban area was the only variable with a significant impact on both fox occurrence and sightings density in urban areas; longitude and percentage of public green urban space were respectively, significantly positively and negatively associated with sightings density only. Latitude, and distance to nearest neighbouring conurbation had no impact on either occurrence or sightings density. Given the limitations associated with this method, further investigations are needed to determine the association between sightings density and actual fox density, and variability of fox density within and between urban areas in Britain

From spatial ecology to spatial epidemiology: Modeling spatial distributions of different cancer types with principal coordinates of neighbor matrices

Epidemiology and ecology share many fundamental research questions. Here we describe how principal coordinates of neighbor matrices (PCNM), a method from spatial ecology, can be applied to spatial epidemiology. PCNM is based on geographical distances among sites and can be applied to any set of sites providing a good coverage of a study area. In the present study, PCNM eigenvectors corresponding to positive autocorrelation were used as explanatory variables in linear regressions to model incidences of eight most common cancer types in Finnish municipalities (n = 320). The dataset was provided by the Finnish Cancer Registry and it included altogether 615,839 cases between 1953 and 2010. Results: PCNM resulted in 165 vectors with a positive eigenvalue. The first PCNM vector corresponded to the wavelength of hundreds of kilometers as it contrasted two main subareas so that municipalities located in southwestern Finland had the highest positive site scores and those located in midwestern Finland had the highest negative scores in that vector. Correspondingly, the 165thPCNM vector indicated variation mainly between the two small municipalities located in South Finland. The vectors explained 13 - 58% of the spatial variation in cancer incidences. The number of outliers having standardized residual > |3| was very low, one to six per model, and even lower, zero to two per model, according to Chauvenet's criterion. The spatial variation of prostate cancer was best captured (adjusted r 2= 0.579). Conclusions: PCNM can act as a complementary method to causal modeling to achieve a better understanding of the spatial structure of both the response and explanatory variables, and to assess the spatial importance of unmeasured explanatory factors. PCNM vectors can be used as proxies for demographics and causative agents to deal with autocorrelation, multicollinearity, and confounding variables. PCNM may help to extend spatial epidemiology to areas with limited availability of registers, improve cost-effectiveness, and aid in identifying unknown causative agents, and predict future trends in disease distributions and incidences. A large advantage of using PCNM is that it can create statistically valid reflectors of real predictors for disease incidence models with only little resources and background information

Extreme Conservation Leads to Recovery of the Virunga Mountain Gorillas

As wildlife populations are declining, conservationists are under increasing pressure to measure the effectiveness of different management strategies. Conventional conservation measures such as law enforcement and community development projects are typically designed to minimize negative human influences upon a species and its ecosystem. In contrast, we define “extreme” conservation as efforts targeted to deliberately increase positive human influences, including veterinary care and close monitoring of individual animals. Here we compare the impact of both conservation approaches upon the population growth rate of the critically endangered Virunga mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei), which increased by 50% since their nadir in 1981, from approximately 250 to nearly 400 gorillas. Using demographic data from 1967–2008, we show an annual decline of 0.7%±0.059% for unhabituated gorillas that received intensive levels of conventional conservation approaches, versus an increase 4.1%±0.088% for habituated gorillas that also received extreme conservation measures. Each group of habituated gorillas is now continuously guarded by a separate team of field staff during daylight hours and receives veterinary treatment for snares, respiratory disease, and other life-threatening conditions. These results suggest that conventional conservation efforts prevented a severe decline of the overall population, but additional extreme measures were needed to achieve positive growth. Demographic stochasticity and socioecological factors had minimal impact on variability in the growth rates. Veterinary interventions could account for up to 40% of the difference in growth rates between habituated versus unhabituated gorillas, with the remaining difference likely arising from greater protection against poachers. Thus, by increasing protection and facilitating veterinary treatment, the daily monitoring of each habituated group contributed to most of the difference in growth rates. Our results argue for wider consideration of extreme measures and offer a startling view of the enormous resources that may be needed to conserve some endangered species